WEEK 8, AKA, “HOME DOG WEEK”.
LET’S GET TO IT.
#3 CLEMSON AT
LOUISVILLE +24
last week the tigers looked like a team inspired to turn around that near loss to unc, burying fsu. cu has won 5 straight and covered 3 in a row over l'ville, including a 77-16 rout in '18. tigers are 12-2-1 ats vs acc foes the last 15 games. the cards' d is awful but their offense has awakened the past few weeks, including behind a backup qb. but they're 1-4 ats as big home dogs (+14/up) while clemson is 5-1 as road chalk -15/more. that said, since '80, home dogs off scoring 40+ in back/back games are 96-48-4 ats.
TULANE AT MEMPHIS -4.5
memphis is 10-2 ats as home favorites, while tu is just 2-6 ats getting points on the road but 6-2 ats in away games +9/under. tigers had won 11 straight in the series before losing 40-24 last season. um is off a tough loss at temple while the green wave blew out uconn. tigers are allowing 181/game on the ground, and tulane can run the ball. and 5-1 teams like memphis, off their 1st loss, are just 11-26-1 ats w/revenge in game 7's.
#12
OREGON AT #25 WASHINGTON +3
uo has pretty quietly been quite impressive after that last second loss to auburn in the opener, thanks mostly to a defense that's held 5 straight foes under 300 total yards. ducks are 13-2 su/ats in this series, w/11 double digit wins. huskies aren't a home dog often, but I don't see the dogs barking here, especially w/the uw defense struggling the last couple weeks vs stanford & arizona.
#14
BOISE STATE AT BYU +6.5
this line is smaller than it should be thanks to an injury to bsu's good freshman qb hank bachmeier. but byu may be down to their 3rd string qb due to injuries. home team is 3-6 ats in this series, and the broncos are 19-8 ats of late as road favorites.
#9
FLORIDA AT SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5
you don't win a lot of games as a 3 td dog when you get outgained 468-297 on the road, but that's what the gamecocks did in athens last week, thanks mostly to a pick 6 and 4 uga turnovers. and usc-e is down to possible its 3rd team qb also, as well as losing their best o-lineman. the question on the other side is can uf overcome the letdown after upsetting auburn and playing well in a loss to lsu. despite carolina being a profitable (12-4 ats) underdog, and the gators' propensity for putting the ball on the ground (8 lost fumbles) and being 3-7 ats after playing lsu and 3-7 ats prior to the cocktail party, I can't see the home team offense putting up enough points here.
FLORIDA STATE AT WAKE FOREST -2
the demon deacons, favored over the noles. hard to believe, even though wake's offense has been sharp and fsu has looked so lousy at times, especially last week at clemson. but wf's schedule has been pretty weak, and florida state had won 3 straight prior to last saturday, and has won 7 straight vs the deacons. mix in wake being another 5-1 team off their 1st loss w/revenge...
TEMPLE AT #19 SMU -7.5
won some $$ on the owls last week as they upset memphis, and now they take on surprisingly unbeaten smu, who's off a bye after having to go 3 ot's to beat tulsa. temple has the better defense, and d's travel, plus tu is an impressive 21-6 ats as road dogs the last 5+ years. the mustangs are a great story, and putting up nearly 500 yds/game on offense, but it's tough this time of season for unbeaten favorite to beat the spread, especially teams not used to that position. upset alert.
#2 LSU AT
MISSISSIPPI STATE +18.5
the $$ I won on temple I gave back when the damn gators couldn't get the backdoor cover in baton rouge. now lsu has that dangerous sandwich game, w/auburn up next week. tigers have won 7 straight and covered 8 straight dating back to the end of last year, and their offense looks unstoppable. msu is off an god-awful 20-10 loss in knoxville. that said, they've covered 4 of the last 5 vs lsu, 6-0 ats at home w/sec revenge, 9-1 ats at home vs .800+ sec foes, and (cfb nerd stat alert) since 2016, 6-0 teams as road chalk are just 1-9 ats, which applies to my buckeyes tonite and eddie o tomorrow.
#17 ARIZONA STATE AT #13
UTAH -13.5
asu has won 13 of the last 15 games in this series, including a 38-20 upset in tempe a year ago & 30-10 in '17. the sun devils' offense is doing it w/mirrors-still don't know how they beat sporty-but their defense is good, especially vs the run, and they're 12-6-1 ats getting points on the road the last 3 years. but... the utes are better on d (holding 5 foes to season lows in total offense), much better vs the run, and much much better on offense. plus kyle wittingham, the last 14 times he's won w/revenge, he's covered all 14 (there's a nerd stat for you), while the devils are 0-5 ats as +4/more dogs off back/back su/ats wins.
#16
MICHIGAN AT PENN STATE -9
you'd think these two would have lots of close games between them, but the last 3 have all been blowouts by the home team (um 42-7 in '18). the home team has actually won/covered 8 of the last 10 in the series, w/the ugly hats 4-1 su/ats the last 5, but they're also 0-9 ats as dogs after scoring 35+. ugh. but the nitts have been very unimpressive, offensively at least, vs the 2 quality teams (pitt, iowa) they've played this season. as bad as harbaugh has been vs ranked opponents, I think the wolverines are good enough on d to keep this close, as long as they don't turn the ball over like they have been this year.
TCU AT KANSAS STATE +3.5
both are off much needed byes, w/ksu losing 2 in a row and tcu 2 of its last 3. both teams average 200+/game rushing, but the wildcats give up nearly 250 a game on the ground, the frogs less than 1/3 of that. don't like going against k-state in the little apple, where they are 14-6 ats as dogs. but I'll take the better run d, who is also 7-4 of late as road chalk and 10-1 ats off a bye vs a foe off a loss.
#18
BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA STATE -3.5
the 6-0 bears got very lucky, thanks to a bogus illegal snap call, to beat texas tech in ot last week, but they are still the surprise team in the big 12 this year. okie-state still has the nation's leading rusher in chuba hubbard (182/game) but their d is leaky. plus the cowboys are just 5-13-2 ats as league home favorites, w/9 outright upsets, while baylor is 5-1 ats as +7/less dogs since '17. and (nerd stat alert) 6-0 dogs of 7/less are 13-0 ats since '80 vs teams who allow 16+/game and aren't off a bye. but who doesn't know that?
SOUTH FLORIDA AT NAVY -14
usf is off a mild upset win over byu despite being outgained 439-316, and they've not been good vs option teams. navy is a solid team, but they're off 2 dog outright wins and they're 0-5-1 ats as chalk of 9+.
SOUTHERN MISS AT LA TECH +1
uh, I haven't seen either of these 2 play. so miss has definitely played the tougher schedule, and is 7-3 ats of late on the road vs group of 5 opponents, while tech is 0-4 ats of late as home dogs.
DUKE AT VIRGINIA -3.5
the hoos have won/covered 4 straight, so duke has plenty of revenge factor. plus uva lost their best cb bryce hall to a bad leg injury last week. their d is still good, but the blue devils have a good dual threat qb and they are 6-1 ats as road dogs of 10/less.
BONUS GAMEAIR FORCE AT
HAWAII +3
air force prefers the ground game, while the rainbow warriors are real good in the air. ironic. falcons are just 3-11 ats the last few years as mwc road favorites.