Post by mscott59 on Sept 14, 2014 12:24:52 GMT -5
Toledo +11 at Cincinnati. uc is coming off 3 pretty decent seasons (9-4, 10-3, 10-3), and frankly i like seeing them wait til mid sept to start their season. just feels more normal to me. i digress. their d was actually very effective in '13, kiel was banged up in pre-season but should start at qb. ut has a big advantage w/2 games under their belt, but they lost their qb in the mizzou game last week. to me, that's the difference. cincinnati.
SATURDAY'S GAMES:
UCF +9 1/2 at Missouri. even w/a bye inbetween, travel to/from ireland for the psu game, then halfway across the country to columbia for this game is a lot of air time for ucf. as canefan so subtly shared w/us, if holman had started the game at qb, ucf would have beaten the nitts by 100 or so.
he did ignite the offense, for sure, but mauk at mizzou was very effective vs toledo, throwing for 325 and 5 td's. but the rockets moved the ball on the tiger d, too. ucf is more physical than ut on that side of the ball. knights are 7-4 as road dogs, 5-0 getting pts when their opponent is off a 10+ win. central florida.NC State -1 1/2 at South Florida. cwg mentioned, correctly, that the wolfpack is horrible chalk. actually they're 0-15 ats during the regular season as road favorites, and only 2-13 su in those games. but... usf got 6 turnovers from maryland last week and STILL lost 24-17. plus their qb is banged up. lightning strikes! nc state covers on the road!!
East Carolina +10 1/2 at Virginia Tech. ecu kept this game close last year, losing 15-10. but that score was a little deceiving. the hokies missed 2 fg's, turned it over deep in ecu territory and got stopped on downs inside the 10, all while holding the pirates to about 200 total yards. i like ecu's qb, carden, who is a senior and played well last week at s.car. but vt's qb, brewer, is a steadying influence on their offense, his receivers have good hands, and that defense is good, period. definite letdown danger here, and that .5 scares me, but vt now knows they have a great shot at a special season. virginia tech.
West Virginia +3 1/2 at Maryland. yes trn, this is a rivalry game. they've played every year but 2 since '80, and 50 times since ww2. agreed that wvu's trickett may be the most improved qb in the country, in giving alabama fits and routing towson. last yr's d was awful but racked by injuries. terps played awful last week but still beat usf. but they're only 2-6 as home favorites the last 3 years, and 1-7 at home vs revenge. wvu lost this game 37-0 last year. revenge. west virgina.
Louisville -6 1/2 at Virginia. gardner's done a nice job replacing bridgewater at qb for 'ville. 1st acc road game for the cards. i had uva vs ucla 2 weeks ago, and i still like them. last yr's team had just 6 seniors and they took their lumps. but they have 16 returning starters now and the cavs have confidence. they're good enough to win this game, definitely good enough to keep it close. virginia.
Georgia -5 1/2 at South Carolina. uga had an extra week to bask in its 2nd half domination of clemson. that d shut down the tigers, gurley looked all world, and now they go to columbia to play a usc-e team they beat 41-30 last year who's really realing right now. but... dawgs are just 1-7 ats off a bye. this is the 'cocks' 3rd straight home game and they didn't cover either of the first two. they'd won 3 straight in the series before last yr, covered 6 of the last 7 and all 3 at home. they're also 5-1 as home dogs since '08. plus, in mid-sept, spurrier's back is already against the wall. i think carolina comes out in a desperate mode. south carolina.
Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech. wrong team is favored here. tt has given up about 230/game on the ground vs central ark and utep. the razorbacks averaged 209/game rushing last year, vs sec-quality opponents while losing 9 straight. and 3 of those o-linmen, along w/williams and collins at rb, are still here. tech is just 2-10 as home chalk the last 4 years. arkansas.
Minnesota +13 1/2 at TCU. minnesota coach jerry kill is, truly, one of the feel-good stories in cfb who should be getting more recognition. he's had 5 game-day epileptic seizures, including a couple last year. stage 4 kidney cancer... beat it. but not many outside the big 10, or really just outside minnesota, know it. last 3 years his teams have gone 3-9, then 6-7, then 8-5 last year. run-oriented offense, which is nice to have on the road. no doubt tcu has had greater success more recently, but the frogs were just 4-8 in '13. they're 5-8 ats as home favorites. but they're also 8-0 off bye weeks. 3 years ago the gophers went out to the coliseum and should have beaten usc, losing 19-17. i think 13.5 here is too much to give. minnesota.
Tennessee +20 1/2 at Oklahoma. hard to believe the vols have gone 6-7, 5-7, 5-7 and 5-7 the last 4 years. they have no returning off/def linemen this year. and they've really struggled on the road (5-10 as road dogs), especially vs good programs. and not only does the sooner offense look like its clicking, ou's defense looks improved over last year. they're 13-2 ats vs ooc foes off a win. this has the look of tennessee's visit to eugene last year. ugly. oklahoma.
UCLA -7 1/2 at Texas. this game is at jerry-world, where sunday the cowboys looked inept losing to a california team (49ers). act 2? ucla may have been looking ahead to this game last week, sleep walking by memphis. but i had texas beating byu in revenge for a 40-21 beatdown in '13. they lost even worse, 41-7. w/ash still out re: concussion, the horns turn to a redshirt frosh, tyrone swoopes, who is 6'4, 245. when i was at osu in the late 70's, those were the vital stats for linemen. now that he has a start under his belt, i'm wondering if he'll settle down a little bit. i see texas being a little better on offense, but nowhere near good enough to stay w/hundley and his group. ut is 0-4 as home dogs since '09. make it 0-5. u...c...l...a...u.c.l.a. fight fight fight (for walt. lol)
Southern California -17 at Boston College. yes, sc looked like they had their fight back on in palo alto last week. gut check win. now this group travels across the country to play a bc team they annihilated 3-7 last year. ho hum. hmm. last year after beating stanford, sc looked pretty lackluster in a win at colorado, who stinks. bc's qb, murphy, has talent, and is coming off a horrible performance vs pitt. plus, bc is 5-0 off a loss vs a team off a dog win. plus, and this is my nerdy stat of the week; 1st year coaches off back/back wins, whose teams are -10+ vs an opponent w/revenge off a loss, are just 18-36 ats since '90. but, like the geico commercials, i'm sure everyone knows that. usc is threatening to be playoff-worthy, but i think boston college slips under the number.
mark scott
tosu 81
7-5. Mad at myself on not going w vt struggling. Bad calls on Minnesota and ucf. Bad luck w hundley going down for ucla. UVA, Carolina, Arkansas and bc I liked very very much. Lol
Mark Scott
Tosu 81
