riding high in april, shot down in may. that's life, but i'm trying to avoid the swoon after last week. voodoo doll. yeah, that's funny. you start doing well, and all of a sudden everybody... ouch... wow... just felt a sting in my neck. that's weird.
THURSDAY GAME
BYU +3 @ UCF. tough break for the cougars losing qb hill, who's been real good. and yes, the back up stewart struggled vs utah st. but i'm guessing he didn't get many reps w/the 1's last week. he did this week. ucf's win at houston last week was a little misleading; the knights had only 10 1st downs and 228 yds of total offense. plus the last 6 times ucf has been a favorite, they've only covered once. byu is 12-1 against the spread it's last 13 games getting points, 8-2 the last 10 on the road. cougs are still 4-1, and after a 3 game home stretch where they didn't cover any, i think they turn it around in mouse-land. mormons
SATURDAY GAMES
Texas +14 ½ v. Oklahoma. like byu, ou is off it's first loss. sooners had won 3 in a row over texas til last year's 36-20 upset. despite the 28-7 loss to baylor saturday, the horns' d played well, holding bu to a season-low 390 ttl yds, + 1 of the bears' td's was on a blocked fg and on another possession texas was stopped on downs on the 1. horns did a nice job containing petty, and i don't think knight (ou's qb) is as good. also, (nerd cfb stat alert #1) i read where stoops is 7-2 ats in the rrs when he comes into the game unbeaten, but 0-4-1 ats w/at least 1 loss. i'm going to take a chance that texas at 2-3 will play a little more desperate in this game. not enough to win, probably, but to cover. longhorns.
Northwestern +4 @ Minnesota. yeah, uw blew it last week in evanston, but that doesn't take away from the fact that nu has improved each week on defense since losing their opener to cal. wow. i feel a pain in my knee now. strange. anyway, fitzgerald's teams have not historically been deep, but they do scrap. gophers pulled a 20-17 upset at nu last year thanks to 3 'cat turnovers. minnesota's looked solid this year, but off back/back wins they are just 1-9 ats the last 10, and 0-6 as home chalk vs a team off back/back wins. n'western has the revenge factor, the visitor in this series has covered 15 of the last 17 games, the gophers are one-dimensional on offense. go u northwestern.
Duke +3 1/2 @ Georgia Tech. last saturday gt looked good knocking off miami. the week prior duke did not look so good, losing their 1st of the season vs the canes. a>b>c, right? all the smart people living in colorado know this. the jackets have won 10 straight in the series, the blue devils have struggled on run d even vs their weak schedule and gt runs. but the dukies have played well (6-2-1 ats) off a 1st loss under cutliffe recently, gt is off 2 straight outright wins as a dog. and i saw on one 'entertainment purposes only' site that teams 5-0 who are favored in game 6 (there are a few of them this week) are just 123-166-4 ats since 1980. i'm rolling the dice on duke.
TCU +8 1/2 at Baylor. horned frogs get the nice win over oklahoma saturday and their reward is a game at baylor. tough. especially when bu is 15-2 the last 4+ years as a home favorite. but as i mentioned earlier, texas really handcuffed petty and the bears' o. tcu is better than texas. they're a good (6-3 ats since '11) road dog. bu beat tcu last yr by 3, thanks to 2 pick-6's. and the frogs sucked last yr. they are 7-1 w/revenge getting points on the road, too. you have to love it when a good team is getting points. baylor's another one of the 5-0 teams who's favored in game 6. this one goes down to the wire. tcu.
Auburn -3 @ Mississippi State. tough one to call imho here. msu looked like they didn't know how to finish at lsu, barely holding on to a 34-29 win. they finished just fine vs the aggies last week. 2 fun qb's to watch in marshall and prescott. war eagle slipped by the dogs last year 24-20 in a game that was as close as the score. i like au's d better, as well as their experience in big games. but there are about 4 separate trends that all point to the home dog, including this one; unbeaten teams w/4+ wins off a big (24+) win are just 20-46-1 ats since '80 when playing an unbeaten team. mississippi state.
LSU -1 1/2 @ UF. you could really see the talent/experience gap last week when auburn beat lsu 41-7. only tennessee has played more freshmen this year than miles. i think the wrong team is favored here. tigers are just 3-7 ats their last 10 giving points on the road. gators showed some gumption, if not offensive talent, in knoxville last week. but after scoring 11, 14 and 6 pts vs lsu since '11, you wonder if uf will bust loose... well, at least score 20. home team has covered those last 3 games in the series. make it 4. florida.
Oregon -2 1/2 @ UCLA. man my body is bugging me. now it's my head... feels like a migraine. what is this w/all this pain? strange. in what seems like an annual ritual, the cfb media world falls in love w/all the uo flash, and is then shocked when anyone puts the clamps on their offense, like 'zona did last week. at least they have a legit excuse w/how their o-line is playing. same w/the bruins; utah sacked hundley 10 times. uo hasn't covered a game since beating sparty a month ago. but the ducks are nice (13-6 ats since '11) road chalk. ucla is 7-5 as home dogs. they have revenge from a 42-14 loss to oregon last year that, actually, was close for a majority of the game. ucla.
Georgia -3 @ Missouri. uga has not been a good road favorite recently (1-6 ats). and mizzou came into athens and spanked the dawgs 41-26 last yr. but the tigers have not been good off a bye (1-4 the last 5) and i still cannot get that loss to indiana out of my head. plus (nerd stat alert) home dogs off a +6/more road dog win (beating south carolina) are just 60-102-1 ats since '80. georgia. the whole day thru.
Louisville +9 1/2 @ Clemson. 1st ever meeting. tigers have been solid (12-5 ats) home favorites, and o has looked better w/frosh qb watson. but the cards have been rounding into shape since losing to uva. plus the cards are a sparkling 10-2 getting points on the road, and 14-2 ats vs acc opponents. too many points. louisville.
Ole Miss +2 @ Texas A&M. fresh off the alabama win heard 'round the south, rebs get their first true road game at college station. you'd think that, combined w/the aggies losing at miss. st., would mean a&m would be the choice here. and it is. sumlin's team is off 2 subpar performances vs arkansas and the bulldogs, and they're 8-1 vs teams off a dog win. texas a&m.
USC -2 1/2 @ Arizona. i agree w/trn about questioning why sc is favored here. i don't think the arizona win in eugene was a fluke. sc won 38-31 last yr, and ua is 10-2 getting points at home w/revenge. trojans are 1-7 the last 8 giving points on the road. i like that combo. arizona.
Penn State +1 @ Michigan. nitts have taken the last 4 in the series, including a 43-40 ot thriller in happy valley in '13. no doubt the vultures are circling overhead in ann arbor these days. losing rb green hurts, because um runs decent. i like their d vs psu's one dimensional o (all pass/no run). but, the last 10 times um has played a team w/a winning record... they are 0-10. 0-10. wow. i wouldn't be surprised if the wolverines turn it around, but they have yet to prove this year they can hold onto the ball. a reluctant nod toward penn state.
West Virginia -6 @ Texas Tech. td is a lot to give on the road for a team travelling 1500 miles, but tech's d is awful, their qb is banged up, and wvu has moved the ball on every team they've played this year, including alabama and oklahoma. tt is 2-10 as conference dogs +3/up vs .600+ teams. west virgina.
North Carolina +17 @ Notre Dame. is anyone else sweating? man it's hot in here. irish should have beaten stanford easily last week. but they missed a couple fg's, threw a pick inside the cardinal 5, and fumbled on their own 10 setting up a s.u. td. unc has looked awful the last 3 weeks vs east carolina, clemson and va tech. no doubt notre dame is superior, but w/stanford last week and florida state next week? hm. it's been 8 yrs since the heels have been this big a dog, home or away. in '07, they covered at va tech (+19.5, 10-17). in '06, they covered at nd (+25, 26-45). irish are 0-3 ats after playing stanford, 3-8 ats as home favorites of 17+. i can't see the irish losing, but i'll take shot that they coast some here. carolina.
voodoo doll. what a joke. i, uh, i can't get out of my chair. lol
mark scott
tosu 81
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
