i thought about waiting til 8 pm tomorrow night just to make daleko's magic 8 ball sweat... but i don't want to wait, so... here goes.
Thursday games:
Virginia Tech +1 at Pitt. vt was -3 when this line opened. both need a win to stay within range of uva in the acc coastal. it would help my alma mater if the gobblers kept winning, but they are 0-5 off a 14+ cover, panthers have covered the last 6 at home in the series, and (nerd cfb stat alert) away teams off a bye off 2/more wins are just 19-34-1 ats since '80. shaky lean to pitt.
Utah - 2 1/2 at Orgeon State. nice matchup of 4-1 teams. utes have the much stronger resume w/road wins over michigan and ucla. but those were both as dogs. since joining the pac 12, utah is only 3-9 as road favorite vs conf opp. beavs are 4-0 ats lately off a bye, utes have actually been outgained in its last 3 games, and (nerd stat alert #2) home dogs w/rest off a win vs league foes off a win are 55-22-1 since '90. i'll stick w/the weeknight home teams getting points. oregon state.
Saturday games:
Baylor -8 1/2 at West Virginia. amazing comeback for bu over tcu saturday, going 24-0 in the last 11:00. and the last 2 yrs the bears have put up 63 and 73 on the 'eers, gaining 1572 total yards. wow. but bu is only 3-7 ats in its last 10 games as away chalk. wvu is 6-2 in its last 8 games as league home dogs of 2+. baylor is only 4-24 su under briles when playing a .600+ team on the road, winning just 1 of those 4 by 8+. and after not covering any of its last 3 games, i think trickett & co. will stay w/petty & co. west virginia.
Virginia +3 at Duke. 2 teams i've liked watching this year, and have made some $$ on. hate to go against 1 of them. devils have won 5 of the last 6 in the series, but cavs are 4-0 ats off a bye week. duke is 8-1 as home faves the last 3+ years. plus uva also falls into the nerd cfb stat #1 category. duke.
Georgia - 3 1/2 at Arkansas. dawgs and hogs. impressive win at mizzou for uga last week. right now it's unsure whether gurley plays here. and richt has been only 2-6 recently giving pts on the road. arkansas had victory in their hands vs the tide and let it slip thru, despite a 100+ yard edge. bielema's team reminds me of tennessee, who nearly beat georgia a few weeks ago. but back to back heartbreaking defeats for soo-eee, combined w/a bulldog team that discovered what it could do w/o its star? georgia.
Stanford -3 at Arizona State. double revenge spot for asu, who lost to su in the regular season and got blown out in the pac 12 title game last year. this is only the 4th time the sun devils have been a home dog in the last 5 years. cardinal offense has struggled this year, but that d has been lights out. even though kelly returns as qb for asu, give me physical over phiness. stanford.
Washington +21 at Oregon. talk about a bad streak. not only has uw lost the last 10 games in this series, the huskies have only covered 1 of those 10. lt fisher returns for the ducks, which would appear to be a good thing. mariota was only sacked 4 times in the 1st 3 games, but in the next two that fisher missed due to injury? 12 sacks, and 3 td's less/game. fisher returns vs ucla? no sacks, 42 pts. coincidence? uw dominated cal on the scoreboard (31-7) last week, but the stats were virtually even. i hate giving so many pts in a league game, but series history + fisher = oregon.
Texas A&M +11 1/2 at Alabama. some grumbling down in tuscaloosa, w/the tide seemingly not piling up lots of style points so far. aggies are 5-0 vs teams not from mississippi, 0-2 otherwise. and they weren't close. a&m has gotten under saban's skin each of the last 2 yrs, but i've been unimpressed the last 3 weeks vs quality opponents. bama is only 4-12 as sec favorites -13/less recently, but on the road they're gaining just about 300 yds/game this yr. at home it's been nearly 600. 11.5 is a short number imho. alabama.
Michigan State -14 1/2 at Indiana. sparty's been similar to the tide in terms of some recent stumbles, allowing unl and purdue to scrap their way back in the 4th qtr to make comfortable wins very uncomfortable. iu rb tevin coleman already has 1000 yds rushing, and got 200+ last week vs iowa. but w/the hoosier qb still out, and even though michigan awaits msu next week, i just can't see dantonio doing anything but going back to basics and pounding indiana into the turf. michigan state. (thought rutgers at tosu might be a better big 10 game this week, but can i emphasize how much i appreciate you running this weekly event?)
Kansas State +8 at Oklahoma. loser here is likely out of the big 12/cfb playoff chase. ksu is 10-4 recently as road dogs, an amazing 9-1 ats the last 10 trips to norman. but ou has been good lately after beating texas (won the last 15 games in that scenario, 5-0 ats as favorites of less than 10). sooners have competed vs a much tougher schedule this year. oklahoma.
Tennessee +16 1/2 at Mississippi. 2 weeks ago the rebs snapped a 10 year drought vs alabama. last week they ended an 8 game streak vs texas a&m. this week is homecoming in oxford, ol' miss has yet to lose or fail to cover a game. vols should be no problem, right? right? welllll... w/lsu on deck (biggest rivalry in the sec, i hear.
i'm thinking letdown alert. since freeze arrived the rebels are 7-3-1 as home favorites, but even as improved as they are, this line looks inflated by the results of the last 2 weeks. mississippi is just 1-8 as home chalk of 10+. vols are 3-1 ats the last 4 in the sec getting 12+. not always healthy to go against a hot hand, but i will here. tennessee.
Oklahoma State +9 at TCU. blowing a 21 pt lead in the last 11:00 to lose at baylor was crushing. i'm not sold on the cowboys being as high quality as the polls suggest (they were lucky to get by lowly kansas last week, thanks to a late ko td return), and tcu is only 1-4 as -6+ vs big 12 foes at home. everything points to the cowboys here... but i think they are overrated. taking a big chance here that the frogs buck the odds and get off the mat after giving away a game. we'll see. tcu.
Nebraska - 6 1/2 at Northwestern. i've made no secret that i like how n'western has improved week to week this year. they have a much underrated d-line. the cats dominated the gophers last week everywhere but the scoreboard, and i like teams getting points at home in that scenario. doesn't hurt that they've covered the last 3 vs the huskers, that they're 7-2 ats w/big 10 revenge, that unl is 1-6 off a bye/off a loss, and that sparty held abdullah to 47 yds rushing. nebraska has covered every game this year. that ends saturday. northwestern.
Kentucky +9 1/2 at LSU. as good as lsu has been in the last decade under miles, they've not been very good as sec home favorites. just 9-22-1 ats. i believe this is only the 2nd time these 2 teams have played since uk's '07 upset win in lexington. both had very similar results vs uf in gainesville this yr. tough to see the wildcats winning but stoops has them in the right direction and i think this could be a game. kentucky.
Notre Dame +11 1/2 at Florida State. too bad we haven't heard more off-the-field stories involving these 2 programs. ha. you keep wondering if this will be the week the noles put everything together and start looking like last year's title winners. fsu is 12-6 ats since '11 as home chalk. irish 7-4 ats getting pts on the road since '10. great matchup of quality qb's. biggest question imho is, will nd's players' feet look as slow as they did vs alabama 2 yrs ago? or vs carolina last week? 1st true road game for nd this year, but defending nat'l champs are definitely not locks when playing unbeaten foes and giving less than 2 tds (10-17-2 ats since '80). plus in the last decade, the irish are 9-5 ats when getting double digits, and are 4-0 the last 4 times that's happened. cheer, cheer for ol' notre dame. yuck.
mark scott
tosu 81
i'm thinking letdown alert. since freeze arrived the rebels are 7-3-1 as home favorites, but even as improved as they are, this line looks inflated by the results of the last 2 weeks. mississippi is just 1-8 as home chalk of 10+. vols are 3-1 ats the last 4 in the sec getting 12+. not always healthy to go against a hot hand, but i will here. tennessee.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
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