ok. going to do as many as these as possible up to 7:30 pm tonite... post what i got... then finish the rest immediately afterward if that's ok.
Thursday Games
Miami -2 ½ at Virginia Tech: gobblers have sure been tough to figure out this year. vt opened at -2 before lots of $$ went across the aisle. canes have been awful in this series recently (3-10 ats), not a good chalk on the road (1-3 ats last 4 games), and tech has only been a dog 3 times at home since the start of '04. they've won 2 of those games, covered all 3. virginia tech.
Friday Games
BYU +7 ½ at Boise State: tough break for byu when qb hill went down, losing and failing to cover all 3 games since. cougs have been a good road dog (8-3 ats) and boise is not exactly a lock at home (6-8 ats last 14) but the broncs have revenge from a 37-20 loss last year. a hesitant lean to boise state.
Saturday Games
South Carolina +17 ½ at Auburn: giving this much in a sec league game is dicey. but despite trends favoring carolina, furman rushed for 200+ on the cocks' defense. au averages 260+ on the ground, nearly that much in the air. tigers have had a week to stew over their loss to miss st, and take it out on the ol' ball coach. war eagle.
Mississippi State -14 at Kentucky: on the subject of rush d, uk has given up an average of about 275/game vs uf, s. carolina and lsu the last 3 games. bulldogs have looked damn near invincible this year. but... they've beaten 3 top 10 teams in a row. they're 3-10 ats after auburn, 2-5 ats recently on the road off a bye, and (nerd cfb stat alert) teams w/revenge at home vs 5-0/better teams off a bye are 30-13 ats since '80. rolling the dice on uk.
Georgia Tech +4 at Pitt: heartbreaking loss for the wreck at chapel hill last week. pitt beat vt on thurs nite so they had a couple extra days to get ready for gt's option offense. i like pitt's d-line, but they've been an awful home favorite of late (1-7 ats), and i read tonite that the panthers are 2-28 ats as favorites when they allow 195+ on the ground. i'll take the points. yellow jackets.
Rutgers +17 ½ at Nebraska: last week rutgers gave up 324 yds rushing at osu. unl averages 374/game in lincoln. uh oh. pellini is just 3-11 ats as -10/more league favorites, and su of nj has been pretty good (8-3 ats) getting 10+. but huskers are feeling slighted in the 'who's got a shot at the cfb playoff' narrative. nebraska.
Alabama -17 at Tennessee: tide has won the last 7 in this series, longest win streak for either team in 112 years of playing each other. vols looked awful vs miss st last week, bama unstoppable vs a&m. but saban's side has looked much more mortal on the road this year. really rolling the dice here, but i'm taking a flyer on tennessee.
Michigan +17 at Michigan State: ihs's stat earlier this week, showing how um has declined in points each year in this matchup the last decade, down to nothing in a 34-0 embarrassment last year, still amazes me. i believe this is the largest amount sparty has been favored in this game ever. at least since the mid 60's. msu has a bye next week so no look ahead-itis to the osu showdown. state is still only 1-8 as big 10 chalk of -15/more, but after covering the last 2 games, i don't think maize n blue pride will be enough. michigan state.
Ole Miss -3 ½ at LSU: tigers getting points at home. at night. that's rare for miles et al. rebs are 2-10 vs revenge, lsu is 5-0-1 off a win the last 6, and since miles arrived, they are 45-5 su in night home games. lsu.
Arizona -2 ½ at Washington State: revenge spot for ua, but pullman is the worst road trip in the pac 12, maybe the country. as a coach leach is 12-1 ats getting points off a loss. the two have played 3 common opponents this year; nevada, cal and oregon. wsu has lost to all 3. the 'cats have beaten all 3. i'm going w/transitive property. arizona.
USC -1 at Utah: home team has covered all 3 games between these two since the utes joined the league. utah is an outstanding 7-3 ats as a home dog, but i thought they got a little lucky in corvallis last week. trojans have won at stanford and at 'zona this year. 1's enough to give. usc.
West Virginia +1 at Oklahoma State: 'eers off the baylor upset win, still smelling like smoke from all the fires on campus afterwards. but prior to that game, wvu wasn't exactly playing great. road teams off a win over a 5-0/better opponent are just 35-53-1 ats since '80. not with a lot of confidence here, but i'll ride the cowboys.
Texas +10 at Kansas State: nice win in norman for the wildcats last week. ksu has won the last 5 vs texas, despite being outgained in ALL 5 GAMES. hmm. 'horns are 9-3 ats as away dogs the last 12 in that situation. i still think their defense is good. hook 'em. texas.
Ohio State -14 at Penn State: giving 14 to the nitts in happy valley is not a preference. but hackenburg has been sacked 20 times in 6 games so far this year. none of those teams have a d-line as talented as osu's. the bucks have won/covered 4 of the last 5 in state college. psu's revenge factor from last year's 63-14 mauling is tempering this, but barring a rash of turnovers (which is possible... penn st's defense is pretty good) i just can't see the home team doing enough on offense. ohio state.
Arizona State -3 ½ at Washington: asu impressed w/a win vs stanford last week, and has won the last 8 vs uw. but the huskies are 5-1 the last 3 years getting points at home, 11-1 ats getting under 10 pts at home vs a pac 12 foe. uw turns it around. washington.
secretariat
tosu 81
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Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
