Florida St (-4) at Louisville -- fsu opened -7 here, and immediately went down to -3.5, so there's a ton of $$ already on the cards. normally that would immediately make you look at the other side. not to mention the fact that they have not been less than a td favorite since last year's clemson game(they slipped by, 51-14 btw). but, not much has come easy for the noles this year. and there are a couple pretty nice trends favoring the 'ville. home dogs w/rest off a win are 102-55-5 ats since '80, and unbeaten road favorites 5-0 or better off a bye, when they allow 14/more a game are just 7-29 ats. fisher's d has been the biggest red flag of the season on the field. this louisville team though is not as good as it has been the last couple years. still, the thursday night dog is tough to ignore. fsu wins, cards cover.
Auburn (+2.5) at Mississippi -- 1st underdog role for au since playing fsu last year (tigers have covered last 6 times getting points). although au is 4-1 last 5 in this series, rebs are 5-0 w/revenge off a loss. ol' miss's defense has been real good this year, but while giving up just 10 at lsu last week, the tigers ran for 264 on them. that plays right into auburn's strength. i think this is the best game of the weekend, and i'll take the points. war eagle.
Arkansas (+10.5) at Mississippi State -- hogs have suffered some heartbreakers this year while their sec losing streak grows. but arkansas is just 1-6 getting 10+ off a non-league game, 5-9 as a road dog. miss st has the offense that can lean on a razorback d that's been shaky vs quality foes. bulldogs are 11-6 since '10 as home favorites. but they actually have the worst d in the sec in terms of yards/game, tho most of that is due to a leaky secondary, not the strength of bielema's team. i wonder about how cowbell u will handle its first-ever home game as the #1 team in the land, but a shaky nod that they will. mississippi state.
Georgia (-13) vs. Florida -- uga looking to win 4 straight in the cocktail party for the 1st time since the days of herschel walker. but the dawgs haven't been a favorite this big vs the gators since the mid 70s. most of the stats point to a rout. georgia has scored 34+ in every game. uf scored just 50 in all of october. georgia is just 1-8 ats off a bye, 1-5 vs the sec giving 10+ away from home. gators are 7-2-1 ats w/rest, i'm wondering if starting harris at qb will give the offense a needed spark, and i know uf's d is good enough to keep them in the game. give me the points. florida.
Stanford (+7.5) at Oregon -- uo is just 2-3 su vs the trees the last 5 years. interesting how small this line is, despite stanford not looking like the team they've been the last few years. su is 4-0 getting points, uo is 6-2 w/revenge. cardinals win w/defense, but the 2 best teams they've played this year (notre dame, ariz st) have been able to move the ball. ducks' offense is better than either of those 2, and they get payback. oregon.
Oklahoma State (+14.5) at Kansas State -- i've said that the cowboys were all hat/no cattle since losing their qb, but still picked them vs wvu. dumb. won't make that mistake again. okla st is 0-9 ats as a +10/more road dog off a loss, they are 1-8 ats the last 9 in the little apple, ksu is 11-4 as home chalk, they are 10-0 vs teams off back/back losses, 10-1 w/revenge. tcu up next is a concern, but can't go against the wildcats. kansas state.
Virginia (+3.5) at Georgia Tech -- whoever the home team is has dominated this matchup, going 15-3-1 ats, 16-3 su. but in the 'scoreboard doesn't always tell the whole story' category, gt's win at pitt was a little deceiving. the panthers fumbled 4 times in their first 6 plays, setting up a 28-0 lead for the jackets. uva is playing w/revenge, they've outgained every opponent they've played this year except 1. virginia.
Arizona (+6.5) at UCLA -- bruins were the sexy underdog pick by many this year and have disappointed big time since opening w/a narrow escape at virginia. ucla beat ua in tuscon 31-26 a yr ago, which might not be good considering ucla is 0-8 at home playing teams w/revenge. 'zona is another team who've dominated the stat sheet vs nearly every foe this season. wildcats are one of the best passing teams in the country, ucla among the worst defending the pass. uh oh. arizona.
Utah (+5.5) at Arizona State -- the utes keep pulling houdini acts this year, w/the last second td drive to beat usc being the latest. you would think that, utah beating ucla while the bruins stomped asu by 5 td's, the choice would be easy here. sun devils pass much better, they run nearly as well as the utes. arizona state.
TCU (-5.5) at West Virginia -- nice turnaround seasons for both these programs who each went 4-8 last yr. tcu's 82-27 blow out of texas tech was pretty wild. that said, i saw where teams who've scored 80+ since 1980 are just 1-5 ats on the road vs .750/better opponents. the frogs are 0-4 as road chalk vs league foes, wvu is a tasty 7-2 ats as league home dogs lately, and with gameday mistakenly setting up shop in morgantown this weekend, thinking this was a sec game-ha-the mountaineers play even more inspired. west virginia.
Maryland (+3.5) at Penn State -- nitts found a way to take osu to ot last week, despite not crossing the buckeye 45 yd line til the 4th qtr. i'm wondering how much mojo will remain inside beaver stadium vs a team psu has dominated historically (35-1-1 su). since ot began in cfb in '96, home teams off an ot loss are just 17-32-2 ats vs league opponents off a loss. i think the terps 52-7 embarrassment at madison will be easier to forget. their d has a good pass rush, which has definitely been a problem for psu. sure would look better for my alma mater if the lions ran the table, but i'm afraid the 'experts' are going to get more grist for the 'osu's not that good' train. maryland.
Northwestern (+4) at Iowa -- hawkeyes are 5-11 as home favorites, wildcats are 14-7 getting pts on the road. both are off byes and losses. iowa is still very much in the running for the big 10 west, but i still think nu has the goods to pull off an upset, or at least stay under the number. northwestern.
Duke (+3.5) at Pitt -- i mentioned earlier pitt's problems holding onto the ball last week. not only 4 fumbles on the 1st 6 plays of the game, they had 5 in the first qtr. duke, on the other hand, has just 5 turnovers all season. that's one big reason why the blue devils are 6-1 this year. duke is 5-2 ats as road dogs, pitt 2-5 ats as home chalk recently. but the dukies are getting outgained by 130+/game, they're allowing big chunks of yards on the ground away from home, and pitt runs well. i'm going to take a chance that this week they use sticky glue. pittsburgh.
USC (-7) at Washington State -- wsu pulled a 10-7 shocker at the coliseum last yr. sc had utah under control til allowing a late drive ending w/a td in the final seconds. trojans have been awful (2-11 ats) giving points on the road, but the road team has covered the last 4 in this series. southern california.
Tennessee (+7) at South Carolina -- not many thought the vols would be much improved this year. most thought south carolina would continue their recent success, not be 4-4. spurrier was pretty unpredictable last week at auburn. the 'cocks are 2-0 getting points this year, 0-5 as favorites. vols are 4-1 when at columbia after playing the tide. what the hell. tennessee.
mark scott
tosu 81
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
