the moment i call myself secretariat... things didn't go so hot. so i'm changing my name to mister ed. go right to the source and ask the horse; he'll give you an answer that you'll endorse. he's always on a steady course... you know... that mr. ed.
Thursday Game
East Carolina -3 at Cincinnati. ecu started the season well, playing the 'cocks tough and beating va tech/unc, but have struggled lately, including a confounding loss at temple. uc got blown out 3 straight weeks by the bucks, memphis and the canes, but seem to have righted their ship. pirates are 0-5-1 ats in non-saturday games, 1-8 ats off a bye week. bearcats are 17-9-1 ats as home dogs but just 1-6 off back/back wins vs a league opponent. ecu is outgaining everyone but has been turnover prone. plus there's your cfb nerd stats; game 9 conference road faves -13/less w/rest are just 4-17-1 ats since '80. and league home dogs w/rest off a win, after week 4, are 102-59-5 ats since '80. give me the dogs, uh, cats. cincinnati.
Saturday Games
Ohio State -12 at Minnesota. 1st meeting since 2010. after 3 unimpressive performances, the gophers stood up w/authority and mauled iowa last week, the 1st time they've beaten the rival hawkeyes (for the floyd of rosedale rivalry trophy) and michigan (little brown jug game) since 1967. so, you might ask, when was the last time they beat those 2 and the bucks? try 1940. they've gone 2-36 vs osu since '69. but they've got a solid rb in david cobb (bucks have been vulnerable vs the run), a future nfl te in maxx williams. um is a good home dog (11-7 ats), especially when getting more than a td (5-0 ats +8/up). can they freeze out, literally, osu's offense w/ball control? the last time we had a big win in east lansing, osu beat unl by 25 the next saturday. bucks are just 1-3 ats recently as double digit road chalk. more nerd stats; .500+ home dogs off 42+ pts are 26-14-1 ats vs foes off scoring 42+. teams in last home games off a 35+ win are 27-9-1 ats vs league foes off a dog win. the trends conflict w/the history of the series. i'll side with history, hesitantly. ohio state.
Nebraska +6 1/2 at Wisconsin. winner has the inside track (although both still must play minnesota and iowa) in the big 10 west. last time these two played was in the '10 ccg, where the badgers gave bo pellini his worst-ever loss as a coach, 70-31. and it wasn't that close. anyone here think bo holds onto his bitterness? lol. can unl stop gordon? can uw stop abdullah? i like the badger d better, but i'm still not convinced whoever plays at qb can carry their load. bucky is a nice 14-8 ats as home chalk, huskers have covered their last 6 away from lincoln. but, uw is 0-6 ats -14/under vs a team off a bye. nebraska.
Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech. winner here has a great shot at going to the orange bowl. gt's ground attack vs a physical tiger d that's allowing about 70/game on the ground to acc opponents. watson returns for cu as qb, which should help an offense that's averaged just 22 pts/game the last 4. home team here has won/covered the last 4, including a 55-31 spanking of the wreck in '13. tigers have lost their last 4 in atlanta, home dogs w/revenge off a big win are 47-25-1 ats. georgia tech.
Utah +7 1/2 at Stanford. both these teams come in off blow out losses to oregon, although utah was in it til the 4th qtr. utes upset the trees 27-21 last year, so i like su in their last home game of the season w/revenge. utah has been run on by uo and asu for an average 250+/game the last 2 weeks, and they've been outstat-ed 7 straight games. that catches up w/you eventually. stanford.
LSU +2 at Arkansas. hogs come in off a bye, tigers come in off 2 physical games vs the rebels and tide. obvious edge to arkansas, right? well.... lsu has won 14 straight games the week after playing alabama, and the razorbacks are 2-7 ats w/rest. they've covered 6 of the last 7 vs lsu, but 5 of those have been getting a td/more, not as a favorite. miles is 7-0 ats off a su/ats loss. where they are emotionally is a legit question, but this young team has had a tough finishing schedule and i like how they're finishing. lsu.
Auburn +2 1/2 at Georgia. similar emotional questions surrounding war eagle after last week's shocker vs a&m. this is the south's oldest rivalry, played every year since 1892. nice. au has allowed 36 pts/game in their last 4 games, and they've not covered any of the last 3 between the hedges. uga's d hasn't been much better, giving up 34/game the last 3 contests. so the total of 68 may be in jeopardy. 1st home game since october 4th, and the last league game of the year for the dawgs, and they need it to have a sliver of hope to win the east. auburn has covered their last 5 games getting points, but uga is 6-0 as -13/less w/revenge. i think they get it. georgia.
Florida State -1 1/2 at Miami. i can't recall a top 5 team, this late in the season, being such a small favorite vs an unranked opponent, even a rival. since the end of fisher's 1st year at fsu, the noles have been 6-2 ats as single digit favorites. miami's rush attack vs fsu's run d would certainly seem to favor the home team, and rested home dogs w/revenge off a win are 84-40-1 ats since '80. and the dog in the series is 9-1 ats. damn that's not a lot of points, but i will roll the dice on the upset, w/november being a tough time for undefeated teams to cover on the road. miami.
Mississippi State +8 1/2 at Alabama. back in the '80 rose bowl, osu was #1 in the polls but +8 to usc. bucks led 16-10 late before a dramatic drive ending w/a charles white flip into the endzone gave the trojans a 17-16 win. 8.5 is a lot to give a #1 team on the road. msu is 4-2 ats in its last 6 games getting points. alabama, who i've heard has been a favorite a few times before, is 17-11-1 ats since '10 as home chalk. normally i would opt to take the pts and run. but i believe the bulldogs are giving up 300+/game thru the air, and amari cooper will be wearing crimson saturday night. he's the difference. alabama.
Texas -2 1/2 at Oklahoma State. after a promising start the cowboys have collapsed down the stretch, a result of losing their qb and playing tcu, wvu and k-state. horns sucked early, but have come around to win 3 of their last 4 behind a solid defense. visitor here has covered the last 6 in the series, and the favorite's won the last 5. texas.
Missouri +4 1/2 at Texas A&M. revenge spot for the aggies off that auburn upset. mizzou win last year sent a&m to the chick-fil-a bowl instead of the cotton. tigers are 9-3 ats in their last 12 games getting points, even though they've done it w/mirrors thanks to a sputtering offense. but a&m was outgained not only by auburn last week, but la-monroe the week before. giving the tigers more than a fg is too much. missouri.
South Carolina +7 at Florida. the ol' ball coach goes back to gainesville, where he's just 2-7 ats vs uf. but he's 10-3 getting pts off back/back losses. harris has looked good at qb for the gators, but muschamp is just 1-6 ats as a favorite vs .500+ opponents. spurrier pulled out all the stops at auburn a couple weeks ago, and i expect a similar go for broke gameplan here. south carolina.
Washington +9 at Arizona. home team has won the last 6 here. huskies come in w/some problems w/depth and maybe some dissension internally. arizona has its sights set on a showdown w/asu for the pac 12 south. wildcats in a rout.
Nevada +2 1/2 at Air Force. flyboys have won 6 of their last 7 games this year. wolfpack is on a 3 game win streak. read where nevada has been outscored 181-151 in the first 3 qtrs of their games so far this year, but in the 4th qtr they have a 118-45 edge. nevada.
Virginia Tech +5 1/2 at Duke. well, the hokies need to win 2 of their next 3 to keep osu alive in the playof.... uh, i mean, to keep beamer's 21 year bowl streak alive. vt had beaten the dukies 12 straight til being upset 13-10 last year. blue devils are an impressive 9-1 ats as home favorites since '11. imho cutcliffe should be a lock for natl coach of the year. but vt is 18-4-2 ats w/revenge as +10/less. virginia tech.
people yakity yak a streak and waste your time of day...
but mr. ed will never speak unless he has something to say!!
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
