no idea on the movie quote, although i think i've used it before.
ok, let's see if we can fool vegas one more time...
THURSDAY GAME
UCF +7 at East Carolina: ucf gets a piece of the aac title w/a win. what a job o'leary has done in orlando; his 1st year in '04 he went 0-11. since then, he's 80-48 su w/3 10+ win seasons since '10. both d's have been good this year, although the knights have improved since losing to psu and mizzou to open the year and ecu's has been slipping. ucf is 5-1 getting pts vs a team off a 10+ win, 13-1 as road dogs +21/less off a win. pirates are 0-4 ats as home chalk vs .600/better opponents. i'll go to battle w/the knights. ucf.
FRIDAY GAMES
Northern Illinois -6 1/2 at Bowling Green: jerry kill went 11-3 his last year at niu before heading to minnesota. there's been no drop off. 11-3, 12-2, 12-2, and 10-2 to date this year. the huskies are an impressive 11-4-1 giving points on the road. bg limps in losing their last 2, but last year the falcons pulled off a big upset in the mac title game over niu 42-27, ruining an unbeaten season. the dog has covered 8 of the last 10 mac finales, and niu is 0-5 ats in the ccg. but revenge, plus the huskies are better on both sides of the ball. i'll go against history here. northern illinois.
Arizona +14 1/2 v. Oregon: for the first time, the pac is playing its ccg at a neutral site in santa clara. can ua beat uo for the 3rd straight time in 13 mos? neither was a fluke; 'cats blew out the ducks 42-16 last year (helped by 3 turnovers) and was the better team in a 31-24 win this year. oregon's stats this year are way better than arizona's but mariota has as many turnovers vs ua the last 2 games as he's had vs all the other pac 12 teams combined. they've rolled thru 7 straight foes since the 'zona loss. uo is 17-6-1 as road faves the last 4 years. cfb nerd stat alert; i found one that says teams who've been dominant for a 2 year stretch (winning 19+ games) are just 11-21-3 ats in ccg's since they began in '92. 2-17-2 if they are off a win. i think double revenge is a stronger factor. oregon.
SATURDAY GAMES
SMU +12 at UConn: smu beat uconn 38-21 last year. the mustangs won the next week too, and have lost 13 straight since. i think smu is the only winless fbs program. they've deserved it. problem is uconn at 2-9 isn't much better. they've been outgained in every game but 1; they are 2-6 ats as home favorites since '11. in a game on this list solely to give someone a chance to catch me-ha-i'll take the ponies and the points. smu.
Iowa State +34 at TCU: hard to believe 2 years ago iowa state pulled a huge upset over the horned frogs. a lot fell into place for tcu last week, w/the qb injuries to both osu and baylor, plus a dominating performance over texas. tcu has not done well after beating the horns (0-6 ats) but isu has been awful (1-4 ats as big 12 dogs of 27+, 2-8 ats vs .700/better opponents). patterson needs style points. he'll get 'em. texas christian.
Temple -3 at Tulane: took me a while to find the last time these 2 played. the 1935 sugar bowl. wow. imagine the fan fever after holding off the rematch for some 80 years! temple can actually become bowl eligible with a win. problem is there are already 80 bowl eligible teams. lol. both teams struggle scoring points. i'd take the under if that was an option. if not, tulane. i guess.
Houston +7 at Cincinnati: uc opened the season w/2 wins, then got pounded by osu, memphis and miami. they've righted the ship since, winning and covering 6 straight. a win gets them a piece of the aac crown. houston game memphis its only league loss of the year, on the road, where the cougars have covered 7 straight. houston.
Kansas State +9 at Baylor: maybe the most important game in baylor football history, w/the playoff in the offing. the winner should share the big 12 title. ksu is just awesome as road dogs; 12-5 ats the last 5 years. bu is 16-4 ats as home chalk. you wonder about petty's health at qb for the bears, but you really wonder about their defense, which the last 2 weeks has given up 74 total points to bad okla st/texas tech teams. kansas state.
Oklahoma State +20 at Oklahoma: ou has dominated the bedlam series recently, 10-1 su/7-3-1 ats. cowboys started 5-1 but have lost 5 straight. they're 1-6 ats off a bye, 2-8-1 ats in their last road game under gundy. sooners are 4-1 off bye, 7-2 in last home games. stoops is 5 points away from being in the cfb playoff discussion, and i think they continue to take out some late season frustration on those in-state aggies. oklahoma.
Louisiana Tech +12 at Marshall: hated seeing the unbeaten season come unraveled last weekend for my dad/grandma's alma mater. doesn't get any easier this week vs a la tech team who also has a potent offense. the herd gave up 738 yards to w.ky. in a 67-66 ot loss. marshall is a nice 9-2-1 as home chalk, but the bulldogs are good on the road; they covered at norman and auburn this year and they're 11-1 ats when getting 6+. plus cfb nerd stat alert #2; home favorites off an ot loss are 2-13 ats. louisiana tech.
Missouri +14 1/2 v. Alabama: big red vs the sec's red-haired stepchild. one of these schools is playing in its 2nd straight sec ccg, and it's not nick saban. tide is the undisputed #1 team, and they're loaded, but they've not done well vs the vegas number this year (4-7-1). the last 2 times they beat/covered vs auburn to make the title game, they have not covered. hmm. can they bounce back from a revenge game 12 months in the making? the last 6 times they've been a td/more favorite after war eagle, 'bama is 1-5 ats. the last 9 times the tigers have been a dog, they are 8-1 ats, w/8 outrights win. hmmm. this alabama defense is not one of nick's best, evident by the 630 yards they gave up to au. mizzou doesn't have that kind of firepower, but i think their d is similar, good enough to hang around. missouri.
Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech: so, is THIS the week the noles awaken? they are 3-8 ats this year, and if their game w/the citadel had a line they'd be 3-9. everyone has seen how inconsistent they've been on offense, especially early in games, and how their d has started slow but clamped down. tech has been a dog 4 times this year, covering and winning all 4. vs common opponents, gt has performed better in all 4. can the wreck effectively run the ball and keep winston on the bench? maybe fsu is who they've appeared to be all season. they have the lowest margin of victory for any unbeaten team at this point of the season in the last decade. georgia tech.
Wisconsin -4 v. Ohio State: for those of us buckeye fans who remember the days of woody, i think we look at uw w/a bit of jealousy, definitely loving nostalgia. you know what they're going to do. you just have to stop it. plus their d is good, and the running game enhances that. melvin gordon and his gang of granite up front have been awesome. only navy runs for more yards. osu beat navy this year, btw. minnesota and indiana both have nfl-caliber tailbacks, and ran w/success on the bucks. osu beat them too. you may see where i'm headed here. fickell has caught criticism for his performance as def coord, but the last 3 years, his d has held the badgers run attack an average 119 yards/game below their season average. meyer has won all 3 games (incl in madison in '12) as a dog while at osu. going back to his days at uf and utah, the last 12 times his teams have been dogs, they've covered all 12, and won 7. these teams have played every year since '07, w/the bucks winning/covering 6 of the 7. in the first 3 big 10 title games, the dog has covered all 3 (uw doing it once vs unl). this game would have probably been osu -5 to -7. the barrett injury swung the line 10 points. 10 points! and you know what? barrett's replacement will still be the best qb taking the field, i think. couple other stats... guess who is the only team in the country this year to outgain every opponent? you might be surprised to learn the answer is ohio state. the last 46 times osu has played wisconsin, the bucks have been favored in 44 of those games. the 2 where uw has been favored? they've lost both. ohio state.
Fresno State +21 v. Boise State: when bsu was 3-2 in october, i'm guessing most folks thought their dominance had left w/peterson's exit to seattle. i know i did. the broncos have proceeded to win 7 straight, and look good doing it. at 6-6, fsu is fortunate to be in the mwc title game. they lost in boise 37-27 earlier this year... i don't think this one will be that close. boise state.
this is secretariat, heading for the stable.
?
. (With one slight change)
ok, let's see if we can fool vegas one more time...
