Post by mscott59 on Jan 2, 2015 15:02:58 GMT -5
December 31, 2014
Ole Miss +3 1/2 v. TCU: interesting to see where the tcu mindset is after being left out of the cfb playoffs; deflated or determined? one of the better bowl match-ups of the year. frogs went 7-1 su/ats vs bowl teams this year, but they're 0-5 ats the last 5 postseason games. tcu is +17 in turnover margin this season, including 23 picks. ball security should be #1 priority for bo wallace. rebs have been a money-making 11-3 ats in bowls since '86, although w/o wr treadwell i wonder if they'll be able to put enough pts up to win. that said, vs one of the tougher schedules, ol' miss lost by just 3 at lsu, would have beaten auburn except for a freak injury on the goal line, and couldn't hold onto the ball (5 turnovers) at arkansas. i think the rebs d is better than tcu's, i think they have an emotional edge re playoff snub. mississippi. LOSS
Boise State +3 v. Arizona: nice comeback by boise after a 3-2 start, while 'zona tries to recover after getting blown out by uo in the pac 12 title game. wildcat d has not been good the 2nd half of the season, despite lb scooby wright's talent. but this bronco team is still not up to the quality of the recent past. bsu is 1-4 ats in their last 5 games as dogs. shaky lean to arizona. LOSS
Georgia Tech +6 1/2 v. Mississippi State: msu was the sec team who appeared headed to the playoffs when they were 9-0. so again you wonder about motivation here. gt has faltered in bowls under paul johnson (1-5 ats) but they are 18-3 ats as a dog vs a team off a loss. while pre new year's day faves of 6+ off a loss as a favorite are 9-24-4 ats. i don't like the jackets' prospects re dak prescott vs gt's secondary, but their option attack, even with extra time to prep, is tough. i'll take the points. georgia tech. WIN
January 1, 2015
Wisconsin +6 1/2 v. Auburn: au enters having played maybe the toughest schedule in the country. uw enters off a shocking 59-0 debacle after which their coach chose to leave... for oregon state. bizarre. i look for melvin gordon to bounce back w/a good game vs a war eagle d that saw its def coord get let go after the regular season. but uw's qb play has been abysmal and the badger d looked very very mortal against an osu offense that will look pretty similar to auburn's behind nick marshall. the last 5 times the badgers have been +5/more, they are 4-0-1 ats. auburn covered just 2 of their last 10 regular season games, and is 0-3 ats when -6/more in bowl games. i'll take a chance on wisconsin. WIN
Michigan State +2 1/2 v. Baylor: i love sparty here, and again it's the frame of mind coming in. briles and the bears are still ticked off at being dissed by the playoff committee. dantonio loves being the silent underdog. msu has been a dog in their last 3 bowls; they've covered and won all 3. the 2 teams are actually pretty similar overall in offense/defense stats, except for one; baylor is much less effective away from home than state is. i like that too. michigan state. WIN
Minnesota +5 v. Missouri: tigers have been doing it w/mirrors all year long. they lost to indiana, for cripes sake. for the gophers, its their first major bowl in over half a century. they're excited. mizzou lost the sec ccg. tougher for them to get up. i'm a maty mauk and gary pinkel fan, but the job jerry kill has done in minneapolis deserves notice. so does their 9-1 ats record the last 2 years getting points, winning half of those games su and covering by an average 12 ppg. david cobb will be playing sundays and i think he'll get noticed too. minnesota. LOSS
Florida State +9 v. Oregon: let me see if i've got this right. fsu has won 29 straight. fisher has won all 4 bowls he's played in. and they're getting 9? they haven't been a dog at all in the last 49 games, and haven't been +7/more since bowden's last season in '09. that's a long streak. no doubt that winston's struggled in almost every game, and yet has turned it on down the home stretch. uo, on the other hand, has gone 7-0-1 ats while finishing the season strong. mariota's season (38 td's, 2 picks, 3700+ yds passing) is unreal. but this is also his first game on a really big stage. the noles have been there before, on the field in pasadena to boot. uo may win, but 9 is too many. florida state. LOSS
Ohio State +9 v. Alabama: read an article on line last week quoting one of the vegas guys, who said he's never seen the public get behind so many dogs in the postseason, and saying most of the 'wise guys' are waiting to see if the line drops any lower before dropping all their cash on the tide. interesting. adding kiffin brought alabama's offense into the 21st century, w/pretty impressive results, including 97 pts in the last 2 games of the season vs quality opposition. but the defense is still the key; only auburn got more than 23 pts on them this year, and they've only given up 3 td's rushing. impressive. and scary when you consider that 10 days before the season began, cardale jones was the #3 qb on the buckeye roster. cooper has an unbelievable 115 catches this year, that's about 10 a game, for a td/game and about 15 yards. fwiw, devin smith had only 30 catches this year, but nearly as many (11) td's w/a 26+ ypc average. osu has a multitude of weapons on offense. but one is the key for me; ezekiel elliott. 1400+ yds rushing, 6.5 per carry. bama gives up 3/carry. if the bucks can't run the ball to make the tide d play straight up, it will be a long night. on the other side, to me the key for alabama is blake sims. if he's able to break contain and pick up 1st downs scrambling out of the pocket, that's trouble for osu too. saban having nearly a month to prepare for an inexperienced qb is scary, but fresh in my mind is what the sooners did to a tide defense last year that statistically was better than this year's version. plus meyer has won/covered all 4 games at osu getting points. matter of fact, he's 13-2 ats the last 15 games as a dog. i guess i'm not a wise guy. ohio state. WIN
January 2, 2015
Pitt -3 v. Houston: both teams playing w/o the head coach who led them during the season. different. pitt's rb james conner was acc player of the year, and deserved it, rushing for 1675. i think they wear down an overrated houston defense. pittsburgh. WIN. check that, dammit. LOSS.
Iowa +3 1/2 v. Tennessee: schizo iowa is actually 7-2 ats in bowls as a dog under ferentz. but the vols have a shot at their 1st winning season in forever (ok, just since the legendary lane kiffin's single season in knoxville). they are pumped to be in the iconic taxslayer bowl, so i'll take motivation over the hawkeye history. tennessee. WIN
UCLA -1 v. Kansas State: both teams played their regular season finale with a chance to be in a different place, and both lost. ksu has struggled in the bowls lately under snyder, and their offense regressed as the season progressed. the bruins did the opposite, except for that puzzling season-ending loss at home to stanford. still, ucla has tons more talent. bruins. WIN
Oklahoma State +6 v. Washington: cowboys pulled off the shocker vs ou in their finale, while uw finished the season strong w/a couple wins and a near miss at arizona. 6 is too many. oklahoma state. WIN
January 3, 2015
East Carolina +6 1/2 v. Florida: uf enters w/o its head coach, and 0-6 su/ats since '05 playing in alabama (game is in birmingham). gators still have more talent, but you wonder how juiced they are to be here. on the other side, the pirates are 5-1 su/6-0 ats in their last 6 games vs acc/sec opponents. east carolina. LOSS
January 4, 2015
Toledo -3 1/2 v. Arkansas State: asu is the place where coaches go to, uh, leave. quickly. if you count interims, they've had 7 in the last 5 years. but anderson is still there for the bowl game. that's good. the red devils' defense is poor vs the run. that's bad. toledo runs well. rockets. WIN
8-6 on rd 3; 21-17 for the post season i believe.
