Oregon State +15 1/2 at Michigan: 1st mtg since '86. um 4-0 su all time. the official homecoming for harbaugh to the big house, and the crowd will be juiced. um actually outgained utah last week, but per their m.o. recently, 3 turnovers, one of them a pick 6, proved fatal. beavers aren't all that much, but um has only won 6 of the last 25 games its played, they are 0-10 ats/2-8 su the last 10 games they've played vs the pac 12, and they have not covered a double digit spread vs an power 5-type ooc opponent since beating nd back in '03 as -10 chalk. wolverines win, but oregon state covers.
Boise State -3 at BYU: cougars come off a last second hail mary win at nebraska, but lost their starting qb to a foot injury. broncos won a closer than expected home game vs washington. this is just the 2nd time in the last 5 years that byu is getting points at home. even w/a frosh qb, i thought byu was more impressive than boise was. plus this is just the 2nd time in 5 years that byu is getting points at home. they've covered the last 2 in that situation. make it 3. byu.
Notre Dame -11 1/2 at Virginia: first time nd has ever played inside the state of virginia. thought that was interesting. impressive win for the irish over texas. not only did they win 38-3 but also won the 1st down battle 30-8. beatdown. uva had to fly cross country to lose to ucla and then fly cross country back. cavs were forced to settle for fg's (3) way too often to stay in that game. kelly is just 4-8 giving pts on the road as nd's coach. cavs are 6-2 the last 8 times they've gotten pts at home, and 11-5-1 ats overall when getting 10+. irish losing their leading rusher folston to an acl, after losing their top 2 other rb's (one inelgible, one transferring) since the spring makes me wonder, especially on the road. i'll roll the dick here and take the points. virginia.
Oklahoma PK at Tennessee: sooners drilled the vols 34-10 in norman last year. i like teams in this kind of revenge matchup, especially with so many (18) returning starters. ou is 14-3 in first road games, tennessee has won 20 straight home openers. sooners looked better beating akron than the vols did knocking off bgsu, but the big orange world order is pointing to this game as the sign that they are back. tennessee.
Washington State +2 at Rutgers: i now believe trn when he said 'slim pickins this week'.
rutgers beat wsu in pullman last year, doing what ohio state couldn't do (beat a power 5 ooc opponent). bucks beat rutgers 56-17 later in the year, but that's beside the point. uh, i forget my point. cougars were embarrassed by portland st 24-17 in a game played in a rain storm, but they did put up 538 yards of offense. plus wsu is 10-1 ats off a double digit ats loss. i'm not impressed w/the scarlet knights pounding norfolk st., plus they may be looking ahead to psu (yes i said it. rutgers may be overlooking somebody). washington state.
USF +27 1/2 at Florida State: noles played a nobody too last week burying texas st 59-16. usf put up 51 vs fla a&m, the most pts they've scored in a game in 4 years. bulls are 6-0 ats getting 3 td's+, and that gives me a little pause, especially when you'd think usf will be more fired up about this game than fsu will be. but that's where i think the youth factor in tallahassee works in their favor early in the season. they're excited to play anybody. florida state.
East Carolina +20 at Florida: uf beat ecu 28-20 in the birmingham bowl last year. but the pirates outgained the gators by 200 yards in that game and were picked off in the uf endzone at the end of the game. hm. ecu is 7-10 as away dogs, uf is 6-11 as home chalk. w/the gators blowing out n mex st and ecu struggling w/towson last week, i think this line is 7-10 pts too high. east carolina.
Temple +7 at Cincinnati: owls off their first win over psu since the fdr administration was in office. they looked good doing it, too, sacking hackenberg 10 times. i think temple's defense is for real, but every technical trend here screams letdown. uc's offense is good enough to put up points, but their d is bad enough to make giving 7 dicey. but i'm going w/the letdown theory. cincinnati.
LSU -4 @ Mississippi State: season opener for the tigers after last week's cancelled game. bulldogs looked so-so beating so miss 34-16. msu won last year 34-29 in baton rouge. they've not beaten lsu back to back in a quarter century. but they lost a ton of talent off last year's team (only 8 returning starters), and i think the mad hatter gets some revenge. louisiana state.
Iowa -3 1/2 @ Iowa State: isu won just 2 games last year. 1 of them was vs the arch rival hawkeyes. by my count ferentz is just 7-9 su vs the cyclones, despite having superior talent nearly every year. but he is 14-4 ats the last 18 times he's played w/revenge off a home loss. i like the hawkeyes' defense this year, too. iowa,
UCF +18 at Stanford: the cardinal looked completely inept losing to n'western 16-6. ucf looked equally inept losing to fla int'l 15-14. nerd stat of the week; game 2 faves off a game 1 loss as a favorite, playing a team who either lost or won a close (10 or less) game, are just 8-26 ats. knights.
Oregon +4 @ Michigan State: at first glance you'd think the revenge factor here would make sparty the obvious choice. dantonio is 22-13-3 ats in that role. but msu has regressed defensively the last couple years vs quality opponents. they are just 6-13 ats as home favorites. the ducks are, the last 8 times they've played ranked opponents in true road games, 7-1 su and ats. also, uo is a strong 14-0 ats getting points, when they score 24+ in that game. they scored 24 or more in every game but one last year (i remember that one), and they've scored 24 or more in 70 of their last 74 games. i think the last team with the ball wins this game by 3 in a high scoring affair. oregon.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
