i know the movie guess probably isn't right, but the scientist line reminded me of eugene levy in splash, which i just saw a few weeks ago for the first time in ages. funny guy.
FRIDAY GAME:
Boise State -2 1/2 @ Virginia: tough call out of the gate bsu lost their starting qb to a busted leg last week. frosh brett rypien (uncle mark is an ex-super bowl mvp qb) may end up starting. broncos are 6-1 ats as ooc road chalk, but 1-5 ats as a non-saturday favorites -20/less. uva is 6-2 ats getting pts at home. new qb on the road as a favorite in a week night game? too much to have faith in... virginia
SATURDAY GAMES:
BYU +5 1/2 @ Michigan: 1st time these 2 have played since '84, when byu 'earned' a #1 final ranking by completing a 13-0 season with a 24-17 win over michigan in the holiday bowl, who ended up 6-6. um off an unimpressive 28-7 win over unlv. mormons dropped a heartbreaker at ucla 24-23. gave up nearly 300 yards rushing to the bruins. not a good sign heading into the big house where harbaugh has emphasized the run game and had success the last 2 weeks. but the cougars are 11-3 ats as road dogs, 17-5 ats in their last 22 getting points. um is just 2-7 ats as ooc home favorites -7/less. i think byu is physical enough to hang w/the ugly hats, plus teams playing on the road in game 4 off their first loss of the season are 12-3-1 ats the last couple years. byu has plenty of experience in close games, um not so much. i like the points. byu.
Georgia Tech -8 1/2 @ Duke: ga tech got victimized by irish magic last week in south bend; now they head to durham for revenge, after losing at home to the dukies 31-25 last year. an attractive combo. that game 4/off 1st loss theory applies here too. duke had it's 1st loss of the season last week too, to n'western, but home teams in that situation are under .500 ats since '80. the wreck has won 22 of the last 25 in this series, and under johnson gt is 24-8-1 ats vs teams off a loss. bounce back for the jackets. georgia tech.
Texas A&M -7 1/2 @ Arkansas: so everybody is lauding the aggies for their newfound defensive chops, while bielema is getting pig-roasted and eating crow off back/back losses to toledo and tx tech. good. a&m is 1-5 as sec favorites of 7+, arkansas is 21-5 ats off 2 straight losses, have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. don't be surprised if the razorbacks pull out the upset. arkansas.
Tennessee +1 1/2 @ Florida: uf comes off extending its win streak over uk, 14-9, and now hosts the vols, who i hear have had trouble winning vs the gators for the last decade or so. a big reason is that florida has been better running the ball that ut. the last time the vols outrushed uf was '04, which i believe was the last time they won in this series. hm. gators offense is still struggling. visitor here has covered 6 of the last 7, and uf is 1-6 ats in the swamp the last 2 years vs sec foes. i think the streak ends here. tennessee.
TCU -7 1/2 @ Texas Tech: frogs' defense is beat up right now. lots of injuries. smu threw for 330 on them last week. tech upset arkansas last week, and usually i don't like going back/back for dogs in that scenario, but i love the fact that, last year, tcu ran it up on the red raiders to the tune of 82-27. those kind of revenge scenarios i do like. plus tcu is 0-4 as big 12 road chalk, tt is 7-1 ats as home dogs, and the home team in this series has covered 8 of the last 9. texas tech.
USC -5 1/2 @ Arizona State: trojans got brought back to earth last week by the trees. now they head to tempe w/double revenge vs asu. last year the devils won in the coliseum on a hail mary on the final play of the game. usc is another team in that game 4/1st loss/on the road thing. plus (nerd stat alert) road favorites of -7/more, off a a home loss as -7+ favorites, are 26-11-2 ats since '80, 5-0 last year alone. asu's rush defense is a sieve, and i think the trojans run roughshod. usc
UCLA -3 1/2 @ Arizona: home team is 10-2 ats the last 12 games in this series. but ua enters this game 3-0 vs utsa, nevada, and n. arizona. bruins have played tougher competition, but they are just 4-10 ats as pac 12 road faves of less than 2 td's. wildcats have triple revenge, they're 11-3 ats as league home dogs, and in their last 24 homes games, ua is 19-5 su, and only 2 of those 5 losses have been by more than a fg. this is ucla frosh qb rosen's 1st league start on the road, and i think that will show. even though ucla is the more talented team, give me the points. arizona.
Northern Illinois +4 @ Boston College: bc's defense played the noles tough last week, but their first string qb couldn't move their offense, and now he's gone for the season. doug flutie's nephew may end up starting. niu only gained 190 yds vs osu last week, but forcing 5 turnovers helped keep them in the game w/a chance to win in the 4th. the huskies have a good d too, and qualify for that game 4 off a loss/on the road thing. bc 5-1 as home chalk the last 3 years. but the sled dogs are 9-5 ats on the road, 21-2 su the last 23 times they've played away from home, and 20-6 ats the last 15 yrs as ooc road dogs. impressive numbers. this is bc's 4th straight home game, but the last 18 times a team played game 4 in that stretch off a loss, they are just 5-13 ats. good enough for me. northern illinois.
Maryland +17 1/2 @ West Virginia: no doubt wvu is the better team here, but they have the sooners on deck and i wonder if the terps are more interested in this rivalry game than the eers will be. morgantown is a tough place to play, but wvu is 0-10 ats off a bye, and i think maryland's d-line is underrated. closer than the experts think. maryland.
Mississippi State +2 @ Auburn: when was the last time a name program lost 8 straight games against the spread? i don't remember anyone other than auburn. war eagle makes a change at qb this week, and has revenge vs msu, a scenario where au is 7-0 ats. i don't like the fact that lsu ran for 411 yards on the tigers last week, and the game 4 off 1st loss at home theory, especially when facing a league opponent (3-16-1 for the home team) is in the bulldogs' favor.
Bowling Green -1 1/2 @ Purdue: bg has already knocked off maryland on the road, and god knows purdue is awful. boilers are another team making a switch at qb, but is that enough to make the falcons a favorite? on the road? vs a big 10 team? bg is 0-4 ats vs big 10 opponents when not getting 4+ points. it's also the the 3rd road game in 4 weeks vs a power 5 opponent. there's absolutely no way i'd bet this game, either way, but in our contest i'll take the home dog. purdue.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
