little late due... traveling for work and trying to get some golf in in williamsburg. priorities. will get my thursday night pick in now... fill in the rest i hope before the night's over...
Thursday Game
Washington +17 @ USC: trojans off a bounce-back blowout win at arizona st... washington off a home loss to a surprising cal team. 1st game for sc coach sarkisian vs his former team. uw coach peterson has been a great road dog in his career. huskies got outgained by 200+ yards vs cal, gave up 340+ passing, and is just 1-6 su/2-5 ats its last 7 trips to the coliseum. but... usc's defense has not been that great in their first two pac 12 games. trojans are 3-11 ats off a 28+ win, and uw is 8-0 ats w/extra rest. sark was in seattle for 5 years, and a ton of his players are still in the program. i think they keep this relatively close. washington.
Saturday Games
Oklahoma -17 vs Texas: to say the temperature and tempers are heating up in austin for charlie strong would be an understatement. horns are 1-4. they haven't been 1-5 in about 60 years. the majority of red river shootout games the last 15-20 years have not been close, but last year's was, w/ou winning 31-26. sooners were outgained by 250 yards, but td's on a kick return and pick-6 helped negate that. ou's offense is clicking under mayfield right now, but you wonder if desperation may be at play for texas. stoops is 11-5 su/9-6-1 ats in this rivalry, but horns are 6-3-1 ats the last 10. ou is 6-11 as big 12 chalk, just 1-5 as road favorites off back/back wins, 0-6 vs big 12 teams off a 10+ loss. 50-7 to tcu is a double digit loss. btw texas is 16-9-1 ats off 20+ losses. texas.
Georgia Tech +7 @ Clemson: tigers off an emotional win over nd. after lots of pre-season hype tech has lost its sting, losing 3 straight. cu was outgained by the irish by about 150 yards, but forced 4 2nd half turnovers. the jackets have averaged over 300 yds rushing/game the last 4 times they've played clemson. gt is a dog for the first time this year; the last 4 games they've been a dog vs a ranked team? they've covered by an average of over 15 pts plus ranked teams off a win vs notre dame are just 5-13 ats lately. big spot for a letdown. georgia tech.
Northwestern +8 @ Michigan: the 2 most impressive big 10 teams to date in terms of exceeding expectations this year. 'cats allowing just 7 pts/game, and own that impressive win over stanford. um giving up about 7.5/game. both have 2 shutouts this year, the wolverines coming back to back the last 2 games. doesn't matter what level you're playing, that's outstanding. um has won 9 of the last 10 in the series; n'western has covered 7 of its last 9 games, and 11-7 ats as a road dog. i wonder about sparty coming to the big house next week, and whether any of harbaugh's kids will be peeking a little. plus i like good defensive teams who are getting points. nerd cfb stat of the week; 5-0 teams getting more than 5 points are 23-12-1 ats since '80. last year's game between these two ended up 10-9. that sounds about right this year too. northwestern.
Oklahoma State +7 @ West Virginia: thought wvu got exposed in norman last week, getting thoroughly beaten by the sooners by 3 td's. cowboys survived 36-34 over kansas st. on a late fg, and is 5-0. they qualify for the nerd cfb stat above. also, 5-0 dogs off a league win, vs teams off a loss, are 9-2 ats the last 20 years. wvu is 0-5 ats as home chalk under 10 pts, 2-10-1 at home vs revenge ('eers won in stillwater last year) and 0-5 ats as big 12 favorites off a loss. oklahoma state.
Miami +9 @ Florida State: noles have won 5 straight in this series that's been dominated by the underdog (11-3 ats, 8 upset wins) til fsu's victories the last 2 seasons. golden is another coach on the hotseat at a program where expectations are too high based on history instead of current reality. canes lost in cincy last week to a back up qb, but they did have a couple extra days to get ready for this game. but miami is just 1-5 ats getting points on the road lately. fsu looked a little shaky down the stretch at wake forest, who controlled the 4th qtr but couldn't finish drives w/td's. noles defense is too good i think for miami to pull out a win, but 6 of the last 10 in this series, including last year, have been decided by 4/less. noles are 0-5 ats as home chalk of 14/less, and with dalvin cook still questionable w/the hamstring injury, i think 9 is too many. miami.
California +7 1/2 @ Utah: ok, all of you who predicted the last two unbeatens in the pac 12 would be the utes and the bears, raise your hand. utah's had a bye week to savor the 62-20 trouncing at oregon. cal is off a comeback win at washington state, and has qb jared goff who is a fave of nfl scouts. bears' offense vs utes' defense. cal was 5-1 ats as a road dog last year, after being a historical whipping dog away from home. and here's cfb nerd stat #2; 4-0 or better favorites, off a 24+ win are just 20-48-1 ats vs an undefeated opponent. 9-35 ats as faves of 10/less. wish i'd seen those numbers before picking osu over iu last week.
california
Florida -5 @ Missouri: gators are another '14 surprise team off a huge win vs #3 mississippi. normally that would be an automatic go-against as a road favorite. but uf got pounded 42-13 by the tigers in gainesville a year ago, so revenge complicates that theory. especially the way that game went, with mizzou gaining just 119 yards of total offense, but scoring on a pick 6, fumble return, punt return and 2 kick returns. florida is 14-3 ats as chalk w/sec revenge off a win. the new frosh qb, lock, who replaced mauk did a nice job in their win last week vs south carolina, but now he's facing one of the better defenses in the country. missouri is 14-3 su in its last 17 home games. and the historical trends... they are hard to ignore. 5-0 teams as road favorites off a league home win are just 32-53 ats since '80. off a 10+ ats win vs a team off a su/ats win? 7-29-1 ats. not to mention that lsu is on the horizon next week. tigers have won the last 2 vs florida, they've covered all 3 games played since joining the sec, and i'm rolling the dice on them here. missouri. but i don't feel good about it.
Georgia -3 @ Tennessee: some times the best thing to do after trouble is to get away. maybe that will work for the bulldogs after the bama beating? vols blew yet another 2 td lead in their loss to arkansas, who ran for about 275 on the vols' defense, and you'd think that would be music to richt's ears, with chubb chomping at the bit to chew up some big carries. uga is 3-0 ats off a loss lately. tennessee lost a heartbreaker in athens last year, 35-32, but georgia has won 5 straight and wi/this small number, w/the sec east still in their control, i think the better team is the play here. georgia.
TCU -9 @ Kansas State: i mentioned last week how great ksu is as a dog (and promptly lost when i went against them vs okie st). now, off that 36-34 loss, they get tcu, who trounced the wildcats 41-20 last year, and buried texas 50-7 last week. frogs have put up about 58/game the last 4 weeks, but ksu is built more like minnesota, who tcu beat just 23-17. boykin is a talented qb who will be tough to stop, but tcu is still not that good defensively. ksu under snyder is 19-4 ats as a dog, 6-1 at home. tcu is just 3-6 as road chalk. plus that 5-0 team as an away favorite stat applies here too. not only do i think kansas state covers, i think this is the best chance for an unbeaten team to fall this weekend (not counting the matchups vs unbeatens, where there is at least a 90% chance each of those games will have one undefeated team lose). kansas state.
Wisconsin +1 @ Nebraska. 2 big red nations were a little ticked last week after upset losses. unl lost on the final play of the game-again-last week to illinois. it happened vs byu, and they lost by 3 in ot at miami after a furious comeback. the badgers dominated iowa, but couldn't hold on to the ball once they got in to scoring position and lost 10-6. loser is out of the big 10 west race, winner still has a shot. wrong team is favored here. wisconsin.
Navy +14 1/2 @ Notre Dame: navy off a rivalry win vs air force. nd off a tough loss in a downpour at clemson where they controlled the 2nd half but had 4 turnovers and lost by 2. the middies are an amazing 10-1 ats in south bend vs the irish, and they are great road dogs, period, going 12-7 ats the last 4 years. kelly has not been good in letdown (1st loss of season) spots, going 0-3 ats. they are also just 1-5 ats as favorites of 13+, and have usc next. but i was impressed w/their qb in the elements last week, and i think they get a quick start and take away navy's ability to control the pace of the game. notre dame.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
