absolutely no clue on the movie. too bad about the boykin uncertainty. ou-tcu obviously would be on the list, but hard to pick against a non-existent line.
Friday Games:
Air Force +12 at Boise State: usually a 31 point favorite getting beat outright makes plenty of headlines. not so for boise state after getting shocked at home by new mexico 31-24. it didn't happen because of bsu's production on offense; 641 yards (200 more than n. mex), a 40-11 edge in 1st downs too. but 4 turnover, 2 inside the 20, can negate a lot of pluses. air force is off a home dog win over utah st, but the falcons are just 5-9 getting points on the road since '12. bsu is only 1-3 as home chalk this year but its their season finale and they're playing w/revenge after losing to the flyboys 28-14 last year. Boise state.
Saturday Games:
Memphis -1 1/2 at Temple: tigers blew a 20 pt 4th qtr lead to lose at houston, while the owls got blown out by usf. despite being off back/back losses, memphis is still 7-3-1 ats as road favorites since '13. temple is 6-3 as home dogs the last 3 years, but memphis outgained houston by 100+ yards last week. i think they're the better team and i'll give the small number. memphis.
North Carolina -5 1/2 at Virginia Tech: no team in the country has rolled thru its league schedule with more dominance and consistency than the heels. now not only are they on track to take on clemson in the acc finale, the cfb playoff is now in play. averaging 500+/game vs league foes. but... they haven't been this big a favorite on the acc road in 3 years. haven't won and covered since '10. hokies are off 2 straight road wins, it's beamer's final home game, they're 5-0 ats as dogs off a su win, they've held 6 opponents this year under 280 yds/game, and they are 9-1 ats as home dogs of +3/more (guess who the one loss was to?) vt has double revenge, and 1 more win makes them bowl eligible for the 23rd straight season. i like that karma. virginia tech.
Michigan -4 at Penn State: no team in the country faces bigger look-ahead danger this week than the ugly hats. there could be a lot more than pride on the line next week in ann arbor... if they can beat the nitts in state college. um is only 1-4 ats the last 5 vs psu, just 1-5 ats as road chalk since '13. 1-8 ats after playing indiana, who ran for 307 on the ground last week in an ot loss. plus i shared this stat last week and it rang true; um is now 1-13 ats after allowing 35+ the previous week. last home game for psu, who hasn't had a signature win in, well, it seems like forever. the '09 bowl win over lsu, maybe? barkley is a better rb than anything iu has this year, and the psu defense has held 4 different opponents to season-low total yards this year. penn state.
LSU +6 1/2 at Mississippi: home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series, but is just 4-12 ats the last 16 games and lsu has won 10 of the last 13. both are off losses to the same arkansas team... don't see that too often. after 2 subpar (for him this season) games, you have to wonder if fournette gets back on track vs a rebel defense that is not that strong vs the run. off a loss, vs a .500+ opponent, les miles at lsu is 20-1 su. that's noticeable. and home faves off an ot loss allowing 32+ pts, vs .600+ opponents are just 7-20 ats since '80. i think lsu wins this outright. louisiana state.
USC +4 at Oregon: after 6 games, both the ducks and the trojans were 3-3/1-2. both have since bounced back to win 4 straight and now have a shot at division titles. road team has won the last 3 in this series. sc slipped by their last 2 opponents, az and colo, while uo upset stanford despite having the ball just 18:00 in the game. the duck offense has been rejuvenated w/qb adams' healed hand, but they still have the same defense giving up 34 ppg. southern california.
Northwestern +10 at Wisconsin: last yr n'western pulled off a 20-14 upset over the badgers, and have won their last 3 games. wildcats are 5-3 ats as road dogs the last 2 yrs. but their offense has been more than mediocre, averaging only about 18 in big 10 games. the visitor in this series has lost the last 6 ats. uw is also 9-0 ats off a bye week and 11-7 ats as home favorites. revenge. wisconsin.
Michigan State +13 1/2 at Ohio State: visitor in this series has covered the last 6 too. every historical trend favors sparty. 11-3-1 ats as road dogs since '11. 5-1 ats getting 7+ on the road vs big 10 teams. 6-1-1 ats on the road w/revenge. osu is just 1-5 ats as home favorites this year. just 1-4-1 ats the last 6 games prior to playing michigan. plus 10-0 teams playing .700+ opponents are a money-losing 9-20-2 ats since '80. what i can't get out of my mind, though, is how msu struggled on offense last week w/o cook. outgained last week 289-262 by maryland. maryland. now the spartans face the best defense they've seen all year. and how healthy is cook? when it comes to the stats the buckeyes own edges in every category except 1; turnovers. msu is +13, osu is -1. if that continues, dantonio might pull off an upset. i'll roll the dice that it doesn't. ohio state.
Baylor PK at Oklahoma State: latest installment of the big 12 round robin elimination tournament. baylor has underperformed 3 straight weeks, including last week's home loss to the sooners. bears are 8-2 ats off back/back ats losses. bu qb stidham got a little dinged last week and i'm not sure who they have behind him to take snaps. okla st is 8-1 ats the last 9 in this series and have covered the last 8 between the two in stillwater. trends say to favor the non-unbeaten tea (see above) this late in the season, but i think this osu beats those odds too. oklahoma state.
California +11 at Stanford: the big game, edition #118. in and of itself that's very cool. stanford is 5-0 su/4-1 ats the last 5. cal began the year w/5 wins then dropped 4 straight before beating oregon st by 30. cal is 6-3 ats as road dogs the last couple years, and 7-0 ats getting 10+ away from home off a win. after blowing the oregon game due to turnovers and allowing big plays, you wonder whether the su emotions are after losing (you'd think) a shot at the cfb playoffs cardinal is 7-3 ats as home faves but 1-7 ats as -7+ chalk off allowing 35+. cal's defense hasn't stopped many folks but their offense w/jared goff at qb is good enough to hang around. california.
Arizona +6 at Arizona State: in '14 both these schools won 10 games, and were thought to be contenders for the pac 12. in '15, they've lost 10 games (5 each). territorial cup is what the 'cats and sun devils play for. visitor is 11-6-1 ats in the last 18 games. u of a won 42-35 last year but this year they may have a backup starting at qb. asu is 11-6 ats as home favorites, and i think they get revenge. arizona state.
UCLA +2 1/2 at Utah: 2 good teams off tough losses. bruins lost w/0:03 left. utes got beat in ot by arizona. both still control their destiny in the pac 12 south, though. utah is just 1-6 ats vs pac 12 teams w/revenge, and teams off an ot loss giving u[ 35+, as i mentioned above, don't fare that well in the next game. bruins have been better on the road than at home this year. ucla.
Louisville +2 at Pitt: pitt is off a road upset of duke, but the panthers are just 1-5 ats as home favorites. after dropping their first 3 games of the season l'ville has won 6 of 7, and the cards are an awesome 12-3 ats since '11 getting points on the road. louisville.
Mississippi State +4 at Arkansas: bulldogs come in off a shellacking from alabama, while the hogs won back to back games on the road at mississippi and lsu. arkansas is on a 4-game win streak and has covered their last 6 lines games. they're 6-2 ats as home favorites the last couple years, they have alex collins who's now run for 1,000+ 3 straight years, and they're 7-0 ats as favorites -15/less with revenge. msu is a good 6-3 ats getting points on the road, but they've not scored more than 19 pts vs a decent sec team all season. arkansas is now pretty decent. arkansas.
