Iowa -1 1/2 at Nebraska: dog has covered 3 straight in this series. hawkeyes are an impressive 7-1 ats the last 8 times they've been road chalk, and are also playing w/revenge (unl won 37-34 in iowa city ly). but the huskers don't get points at home often (just twice the last 5 years). plus a couple historical trends favor the children of the corn; home dogs w/rest off a win, vs a league foe, are 103-58-4 ats since '80... and 11-0 teams playing a .700/less opponent off a win are 0-5 ats since '00. upset. nebraska.
Navy +1 at Houston: like iowa, navy and houston have also been nice surprises. both have just 1 loss. cougars followed up a 20 pt comeback win over memphis w/a dismal 20-17 loss at uconn. uh has some questions at qb, they are just 1-4 ats at home vs good (.700+) opponents, and the middies are money getting points; 5-1 ats as +6/less, an incredible 26-9 ats as away dogs. i'm hoping qb keenan reynolds is in nyc for the heisman ceremony, and head coach ken niumatalolo deserves coach of year consideration. navy.
Baylor -1 1/2 at TCU: bears are down to their 3rd string qb. still questions about whether boykin will play. tcu is 7-1 ats w/revenge. frogs' defense is getting healthier. texas christian.
SATURDAY GAMES
Ohio State +1 1/2 at Michigan: i'm still pissed i picked osu last week, when every indicator showed sparty was the choice. so this week i'm going w/my research. home team is 8-5 ats lately, and the dog hasn't won outright since '04. um is 7-6 ats as home chalk, w/a very good defense and a decent offense. osu has an inconsistent offense and a very good defense, but the last 6 times osu has gotten points in a game, not only have they covered but they've won outright. the bucks are 7-2 ats on the road vs .750+ foes. they're 17-0 su on the road under meyer. the stats say so, so i do too. ohio state.
Penn State +11 1/2 at Michigan State: sparty played their best game of the year last week, and the big 10 east is in their grasp. but... msu is just 8-17 ats as home favorites since '12. visitor has won 3 in a row su in the series. psu is looking for revenge from a 34-10 spanking in state college last season. nitts are 6-4-2 ats as road dogs. plus, nerd stat #1; teams off beating the defending national champs are just 4-11 ats the next game when the opponent is off a loss. i think psu qb hackenberg can attack msu's biggest weakness... defending the pass. probably not well enough for the upset, but enough to cover. penn state.
North Carolina -6 at North Carolina State: unc looked a lot shakier last week, needing ot to beat va tech. now the heels go down the road to raleigh to take on the wolfpack. in the last 17 years of this series, 12 times the dog has won outright. nc state won 34-6 last year,and have covered 6 of the last 8 in the series. unc is 1-5 ats as acc favorites of 4+. north carolina state.
Florida State -2 at Florida: visitor has covered the last 4 in this series, and fsu has won 4 of the last 5. gators have been another of the surprise teams of the season. noles are just 3-6 ats as road chalk the last 2 years. uf is 5-1-1 ats getting points w/revenge. i've said many times i like teams w/good defense getting points. this line moved by 5 from uf -3 at the beginning of the week. that's too much movement. florida.
Georgia -5 at Georgia Tech: from the good surprises to the surprising disappointments. some 'experts' were actually calling ga tech a dark horse cfb playoff team, they're 3-8. uga is 8-3. last year the dawgs were 9-2 before getting shocked by the wreck 30-24 between the hedges, and watched gt players dance at midfield on the 'g'. richt's team is 9-0 ats as -13/less favorites w/revenge. tech is 2-10 ats off a su favorite loss. georgia. and i don't think it will be close.
Alabama -14 at Auburn: tide returns to the scene of '13's infamous kick-6. no one is playing better than alabama right now, but... saban is just 1-6 ats the last 7 times they've been road favorites of 8+. the home team in this series has covered the last 3 games, and 6 of the last 8. auburn is also 8-2 ats w/sec revenge. nerd cfb stat #2; .500+ home dogs off scoring 42+ in a game, vs opponents off scoring 42+ in a game, are 28-15-1 ats the last 20 years. war eagle throws the arch rival a scare. auburn.
Clemson -17 at South Carolina: after 5 straight losses to the cocks, the tigers finally won 34-16 in clemson last year. like the game above, here's another one where one arch rival has struggled this year, and has a shot at home of pulling a shocker. cu is just 2-8 ats as road favorites of 2 td's or more, and they could be looking ahead to the acc ccg vs unc. usc-e is 8-0 ats the last 8 years in their final home game, and the loss to the citadel last week has inflated this line by 5-7 points. i'll go with history here. south carolina.
Oklahoma -6 1/2 at Oklahoma State: how healthy is ou's qb baker mayfield? no doubt the sooners have been cruising since the texas loss, but they looked mortal w/o mayfield last week vs tcu. last year the cowboys were 20 pt dogs in norman and upset ou 38-35. that tips the scales for me. oklahoma
Mississippi -1 at Mississippi State: home team has won 10 of the last 11 in this series. rebels won 31-17 in oxford last year. they're also off a 38-17 win over fading lsu last week. so back to back big rival games for ol miss, and msu is 6-3 ats getting points at home. mississippi state.
Notre Dame +3 1/2 at Stanford: last year the irish scored in the last minute to beat su 17-14 in south bend. irish have battled injuries all season and are still 10-1. the last 3 times the trees have been favored over nd, they've failed to cover. the cardinal is just 1-5 ats w/revenge. the irish are 6-2 ats vs pac 12 teams lately. notre dame.
Louisville -4 at Kentucky: last year uk needed a win in louisville to make a bowl, but lost 44-40. same scenario this year. cards enter the game having won 4 of the last 5, while the cats have lost 5 of their last 6. uk is also just 2-10 ats as home dogs lately. but sec teams getting points at home vs ooc foes win more than they lose. kentucky.
UCLA +3 1/2 at USC: bruins have won the last 3 in this crosstown series, after the trojans won 12 of the previous 13. usc gave up about 600 yds to oregon last week in a 48-28 loss, while ucla kept utah out of the endzone winning 17-9. which means the winner here takes the pac 12 south. those results shifted the line a few points imho, and usc is 6-1 ats as league home favorites of -7/less. ucla is a solid 6-3 ats as road dogs, but i like sc with triple revenge. southern california.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
