1. no clue on the movie. haven't done well this year on that.
2. HUGE thanks to trn for running this again. not easy when you've got jobs and families and new houses to move into and old houses to move out of. truly appreciated buddy.
Friday Night:
Northern Illinois +12 1/2 vs. Bowling Green: 3rd straight yr these two have met in the mac title game. last yr niu won 51-17. lots of talk in ohio that bgsu's coach dino babers is headed to ucf soon. the falcons' defense is not good, but their offense is top notch. #3 in total yard differential/game in the country (+174). qb matt johnson has thrown for 4400+, 41 td's and just 6 picks. niu is more balanced on offense and better defensively. but get this. they lost their backup qb to back surgery in sept. starter drew hare ruptured his achilles a month ago. redshirt frosh ryan graham came in and won 3 games but then got hurt 2 weeks ago. so now they're down to a freshman walk on, tommy fiedler, who began the season #5 on the depth chart. 12 1/2 is a lot to give, but niu's qb issues combined with bg's offense + revenge? bowling green.
Saturday Games:
Texas +21 at Baylor: you wonder how much disappointment there is for the bears after losing at tcu in ugly conditions last week bu has lost 2 of its last 3, and has gone 1-4 ats their last 5 games. but they've beaten texas 4 of the last 5 and covered all 5. they're 17-4 as home faves, and the 'horns psyche has to be worse. a bowl team last year, they're 4-7. cfb nerd stat alert... teams in this scenario, when coming off a loss (texas got beat by texas tech last week) are just 10-31-2 ats since 1980. even w/a 3rd string qb.... baylor
Southern Miss +7 1/2 v. Western Kentucky: impressive year for the hilltoppers, going 10-2 w/losses only to lsu and indiana. home game for wku, but southern miss has outgained its last 10 non-power 5 opponents. i think that half point will matter. southern mississippi.
Temple +6 v. Houston: 1st-ever aac title game. winner may be playing w/the 'big' boys on new year's day. temple's 2nd-ever 10 win season, and tom herman raises eyebrows going 11-1. you'd think the cougars would have the edge playing this game at home, but uh is a mediocre 5-7 ats the last 2 yrs as home chalk, 1-5 ats as favorites of 8/less. the cougars stomped navy last week, but the owls have better balance on offense, a better defense, plus they've been money getting pts on the road the last 3 yrs (8-3 ats). ward is back at qb for houston, and he's had a great year. but... cfb nerd stat #2, teams hosting ccg's are just 5-8-1 ats (applies in the sm-wku game above too), 0-5-1 ats if they're off a win (applies above too). houston should win but i think temple keeps it within the number.
Southern California +4 1/2 v. Stanford: in week 3 su upset usc 41-31 as a +9 dog. now the cardinal is favored in a 'neutral' site ccg... santa clara... which is not too far from the campus on the farm. but sc has fans up and down the pch so there won't be much of a crowd edge. imho the edge favors the trojans, because it's real tough to beat a team twice in the same season. i see these two as pretty even talent-wise, sans stanford qb kevin hogan who's had an outstanding career. that said, usc is 6-0-1 ats vs stanford as an underdog. i'll take the points. southern california.
Florida +17 1/2 v. Alabama: how can a league as tough as the sec have a ccg w/a 17+ spread? lol-let it go, mark. when it comes to title games, uf and ua are the league flagships; #11 for the gators, #10 for the tide out of 24 total. 2 of the top defenses in the country (alabama #1, florida #3 in the 2 ratings systems i look at), but the question remains as to how uf can generate any offense w/harris at qb. plus their d-line is a little beat up. not a good recipe when you figure henry will be likely running downhill come the 2nd half, if not sooner. in the last 9 sec ccg's, the favorite has won all 9 and gone 7-1-1 ats. too many points for me to throw actual cash at it, but here i'll give 'em and take alabama. i am seriously considering the under (around 40.5),
North Carolina +5 1/2 v. Clemson: winner of this game would be a serious candidate for coach of the year. larry fedora for unc and dabo swinney for clemson have had great seasons... both incredibly dynamic on offense. but the heels are +9 in turnover margin this year... the tigers -3. that's a little troubling. from a history standpoint, undefeated ccg teams are just 10-14 ats as favorites. unc is 5-1 ats as acc dogs of 8/less... cu is just 6-12-1 in its last 19 games as chalk. i think the tigers win, but i'm taking the points. north carolina.
Michigan State -3 1/2 v. Iowa: undefeated teams giving pts in ccg's historically have underperformed, but undefeated teams getting points? iowa is 6-2 ats the last 3 yrs as road dogs, while sparty is 0-3 this year as road favorites. the dog has won the last 2 big 10 ccg's outright, and that 1/2 point is tantalizing. these teams have virtually identical offensive, defensive and turnover margin stats. msu faced the tougher schedule, but this is just one game. dantonio has had some magic in ann arbor and columbus, but i think it runs out in indy. iowa.
West Virginia -6 1/2 at Kansas State: ksu needs a win to be bowl eligible. the wildcats are 8-2 ats the last 10 times they've been home dogs. wvu is 4-11 ats on the road vs big 12 opponents. kansas state.
Appalachian State -18 v. South Alabama: lasts yr south alabama beat appy st by 20+, and a repeat here would make the jags bowl eligible. but the jags' qb is dinged up and may not play, plus usa is just 2-7 getting points at home lately. in addition to revenge, asu has won 15 of its last 17 games and 12 of 13 vs sunbelt opponents. appalachian state
Air Force +4 1/2 v. San Diego State: the aztecs have been a pretty nice money maker for anyone who's noticed this year. their defense has been outstanding, #9 in the country in terms of holding their opponents all season to about 100 yds below their season average. vs mountain west opponents, its 158 yds/game below average. impressive. air force's offense has been good, but they're coming off a loss to new mexico last week, and they're just 5-11 ats on the league road of late. rocky long's team has won 8 straight coming into this game, and his name is being bantered for some of the current big school openings. i think he goes out a winner. san diego state.
Georgia State +21 v. Georgia Southern: georgia southern ripped thru south alabama last week, and they still have a shot at the sun belt title should arkansas state lose. that said, georgia state is 5-0 ats as road dogs this year, and has won 3 of those games outright. ga southern won this matchup 69-31 last year... and i'm wondering if they remember. kidding. georgia state.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
