Post by daleko on May 19, 2016 14:27:21 GMT -5
ftw.usatoday.com/2016/05/bold-nfl-overunder-predictions-patriots-and-steelers-will-disappoint
With teams starting up minicamps across the country, Vegas is rolling out its opening odds for the 2016 NFL season. Bovada recently updated its over/unders for every team’s 2016 win total.
Let’s go through them all and figure out which teams are being undervalued and those that will fail to meet expectations…
10.5 wins
Panthers
Carolina is not going to win 15 games again, but a five-drop won’t happen either. The roster is largely the same except for the loss of Josh Norman, which isn’t as big as you’d think. As long as Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are manning the linebacker spots, this defense will be fine. The offense also gets back Kelvin Benjamin, who gives the team yet another threat in the red zone. An 11-5 season might be the floor for the Panthers in 2016.
Verdict: Over
Packers
This is based on the assumption that Jordy Nelson has no problem bouncing back from last year’s ACL injury.Even without him, Aaron Rodgers was just good enough to get 10 wins out of the slowest group of receivers in the league. The young players in the secondary should be better with a year of experience and first-round pick Kenny Clark will improve the run game immediately.
Verdict: Over
Patriots
Yes, I’m betting against Bill Belichick. Well, actually, I’m betting against Jimmy Garoppolo. If he’s bad and New England drops three of its first four, Tom Brady would have to go 10-2 over the last three months of the season. Is he capable of carrying the team on such a run? Of course. But we’d have to assume guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis stay healthy. Remember how this offense looked last year when those guys went down?
Verdict: Under
Steelers
Has Pittsburgh found a good backup for Ben Roethlisberger? No? I’m taking the under, then, because Ben is going to miss a few games. It happens every season, and this offense — as talented as it is — is not good enough to prop up the woefully awful Bruce Gradkowski. And the Steelers always seem to drop one or two games they have no business losing. They’ll go 10-6 then go on a run to the AFC Championship game.
Verdict: Under
Seahawks
Since Russell Wilson joined the team, Seattle has won fewer than 11 games only once. That was last year when the offense was stuck in neutral over the first half of the season. The defense also blew a lot of close games, which I don’t see happening again. This is an easy one.
Verdict: Over
9.5 wins
Cardinals
Bruce Arians has won at least 10 games every year he’s been a head coach. And that includes a season with Ryan Lindley playing a significant role. The Cardinals have the deepest roster in the NFL. This team is not winning fewer than 10 games.
Verdict: Over
Bengals
The Bengals always seem to outplay expectations. Knowing that, I’m still going to make the mistake of taking the under. I’m still wary of Andy Dalton’s “improvement” last year. If he does it again without Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones and Hue Jackson, consider me sold. Losing safety Reggie Nelson was also a blow.
Verdict: Under
Cowboys
Tony Romo isn’t going to miss 12 games again, and the running game should be even better after the team used its first-round pick on do-it-all running back Ezekiel Elliott. If Dallas can get back to grinding down the clock on offense, while keeping its defense off the field, it will hit the 10-win mark by the end of November.
Verdict: Over
Colts
This team won eight games last year and Josh Freeman started a game for them — that’s how bad their quarterback situation was in 2015. Having Andrew Luck back for 16 games should be good for a two-game improvement, right?
Verdict: Over
Chiefs
Kansas City is another team that is perpetually slept on. The AFC West will be better than it was a year ago when the Chiefs won 11 games; so even if the team is just as a good, a two-game drop is not out of the question.
Verdict: Under
Vikings
I’m taking the over on Minnesota all day. A young roster that made significant improvements in the offseason and won 11 games the previous season? The Vikings could underachieve and still out bang out 10 wins.
Verdict: Over
9 wins
Broncos
This team is starting either Mark Sanchez or raw rookie Paxton Lynch at quarterback. The offense is going to be a mess. The defense will not be as dominant as it was last season after losing Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan in free agency. This is a 9-7 team.
Verdict: Push
8.5 wins
Ravens
Joe Flacco isn’t capable of carrying an offense for 16 games and there’s a paucity of young talent on the roster so don’t expect significant improvements elsewhere. The team should be healthier in 2016 after last year’s nightmare, but when your best players are over 30, injuries are to be expected.
Verdict: Under
Texans
While I’m not a big fan of Houston’s offseason acquisitions, I do think Bill O’Brien is a good coach. And J.J. Watt is still on this defense. The team is better than it was a year ago when it finished with nine wins.
Verdict: Over
Raiders
Oakland is still a year away from making the leap. Raiders fan can “suffer” through another 7-9 season and then enjoy a decade of sustained success when this young roster grows into a force.
Verdict: Under
8 wins
Bills
No one knows how to coach up an 8-8 team quite like Rex Ryan.
Verdict: Push
Giants
The roster may have been upgraded — although not as much as you’d expect for a team that spent nearly $200 million in the offseason — but the coaching staff suffered a blow losing Tom Coughlin. I’ll gladly take a wait-and-see approach on Ben McAdoo.
Verdict: Push
Jets
I really like the Jets roster outside of the quarterback position. No matter who’s behind center, this team will get to at least eight wins.
Verdict: Over
7.5 wins
Falcons
Dan Quinn’s defense will not work without a pass rush, an obvious problem the front office refuses to address. Derrick Shelby is not the solution to your problems, Atlanta. Neither will moving your most promising pass rusher to linebacker.
Verdict: Under
Bears
The Bears could have won eight games last year. With a second season under John Fox and defensive coordinator/wizard Vic Fangio and an overhaul of the front seven, they should hit that mark with ease in 2016.
Verdict: Over
Jaguars
The defense is banking on a lot of first-year players, and Blake Bortles has yet to grow into a consistent quarterback. Jacksonville is on the right path but still a year or two away.
Verdict: Under
Rams
If Todd Gurley stays healthy for 16 games and the defense lives up to its potential, rookie QB Jared Goff won’t have to do much to get this team to eight wins.
Verdict: Over
Buccaneers
Jameis Winston should take a big step in his second season. And dropping defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should instantly improve an underachieving defense.
Verdict: Over
Redskins
First-round pick Josh Doctson adds to an already loaded offense. The defense gets some much needed upgrades in corner Josh Norman and pass rusher Junior Gallete. With that offense, a league-average defense will get this team to a .500 record.
Verdict: Over
7 wins
Lions
Detroit won seven games last season and lost a number of heart-breaking games in the last minute. If their luck marginally improves, the Lions could challenge for a playoff spot.
Verdict: Over
Dolphins
Adam Gase is going to turn Ryan Tannehill into a Pro Bowl quarterback, which should take pressure off a defense that has underachieved in the past.
Verdict: Over
Saints
When did people start underestimating Drew Brees? He’s still a top-three quarterback in the league, and the defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was in 2015.
Verdict: Over
Eagles
Their quarterback situation is a mess, the line still isn’t very good and the defense was only marginally improved in the offseason. Throw in a rookie head coach and you’re looking at a potential disaster in Philadelphia.
Verdict: Under
Chargers
This team just needs to stay healthy, and Philip Rivers will lead it to at least seven wins. There’s a talented roster hidden under the pile of the injured bodies.
Verdict: Over
5.5 wins
49ers
Chip Kelly’s offense is going to score enough points to keep the 49ers competitive. Even last year’s imploding Eagles team won seven games.
Verdict: Over
Titans
Where has this team improved since last year? The offensive line is better on paper, but that’s about it.
Verdict: Under
4.5 wins
Browns
The Hue Jackson-Robert Griffin III partnership will get off to a promising start, but the schedule is rough and the roster is far too young for this team to approach a competitive record.
Verdict: Under
And they draft Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson w the first pick.
With teams starting up minicamps across the country, Vegas is rolling out its opening odds for the 2016 NFL season. Bovada recently updated its over/unders for every team’s 2016 win total.
Let’s go through them all and figure out which teams are being undervalued and those that will fail to meet expectations…
10.5 wins
Panthers
Carolina is not going to win 15 games again, but a five-drop won’t happen either. The roster is largely the same except for the loss of Josh Norman, which isn’t as big as you’d think. As long as Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are manning the linebacker spots, this defense will be fine. The offense also gets back Kelvin Benjamin, who gives the team yet another threat in the red zone. An 11-5 season might be the floor for the Panthers in 2016.
Verdict: Over
Packers
This is based on the assumption that Jordy Nelson has no problem bouncing back from last year’s ACL injury.Even without him, Aaron Rodgers was just good enough to get 10 wins out of the slowest group of receivers in the league. The young players in the secondary should be better with a year of experience and first-round pick Kenny Clark will improve the run game immediately.
Verdict: Over
Patriots
Yes, I’m betting against Bill Belichick. Well, actually, I’m betting against Jimmy Garoppolo. If he’s bad and New England drops three of its first four, Tom Brady would have to go 10-2 over the last three months of the season. Is he capable of carrying the team on such a run? Of course. But we’d have to assume guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis stay healthy. Remember how this offense looked last year when those guys went down?
Verdict: Under
Steelers
Has Pittsburgh found a good backup for Ben Roethlisberger? No? I’m taking the under, then, because Ben is going to miss a few games. It happens every season, and this offense — as talented as it is — is not good enough to prop up the woefully awful Bruce Gradkowski. And the Steelers always seem to drop one or two games they have no business losing. They’ll go 10-6 then go on a run to the AFC Championship game.
Verdict: Under
Seahawks
Since Russell Wilson joined the team, Seattle has won fewer than 11 games only once. That was last year when the offense was stuck in neutral over the first half of the season. The defense also blew a lot of close games, which I don’t see happening again. This is an easy one.
Verdict: Over
9.5 wins
Cardinals
Bruce Arians has won at least 10 games every year he’s been a head coach. And that includes a season with Ryan Lindley playing a significant role. The Cardinals have the deepest roster in the NFL. This team is not winning fewer than 10 games.
Verdict: Over
Bengals
The Bengals always seem to outplay expectations. Knowing that, I’m still going to make the mistake of taking the under. I’m still wary of Andy Dalton’s “improvement” last year. If he does it again without Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones and Hue Jackson, consider me sold. Losing safety Reggie Nelson was also a blow.
Verdict: Under
Cowboys
Tony Romo isn’t going to miss 12 games again, and the running game should be even better after the team used its first-round pick on do-it-all running back Ezekiel Elliott. If Dallas can get back to grinding down the clock on offense, while keeping its defense off the field, it will hit the 10-win mark by the end of November.
Verdict: Over
Colts
This team won eight games last year and Josh Freeman started a game for them — that’s how bad their quarterback situation was in 2015. Having Andrew Luck back for 16 games should be good for a two-game improvement, right?
Verdict: Over
Chiefs
Kansas City is another team that is perpetually slept on. The AFC West will be better than it was a year ago when the Chiefs won 11 games; so even if the team is just as a good, a two-game drop is not out of the question.
Verdict: Under
Vikings
I’m taking the over on Minnesota all day. A young roster that made significant improvements in the offseason and won 11 games the previous season? The Vikings could underachieve and still out bang out 10 wins.
Verdict: Over
9 wins
Broncos
This team is starting either Mark Sanchez or raw rookie Paxton Lynch at quarterback. The offense is going to be a mess. The defense will not be as dominant as it was last season after losing Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan in free agency. This is a 9-7 team.
Verdict: Push
8.5 wins
Ravens
Joe Flacco isn’t capable of carrying an offense for 16 games and there’s a paucity of young talent on the roster so don’t expect significant improvements elsewhere. The team should be healthier in 2016 after last year’s nightmare, but when your best players are over 30, injuries are to be expected.
Verdict: Under
Texans
While I’m not a big fan of Houston’s offseason acquisitions, I do think Bill O’Brien is a good coach. And J.J. Watt is still on this defense. The team is better than it was a year ago when it finished with nine wins.
Verdict: Over
Raiders
Oakland is still a year away from making the leap. Raiders fan can “suffer” through another 7-9 season and then enjoy a decade of sustained success when this young roster grows into a force.
Verdict: Under
8 wins
Bills
No one knows how to coach up an 8-8 team quite like Rex Ryan.
Verdict: Push
Giants
The roster may have been upgraded — although not as much as you’d expect for a team that spent nearly $200 million in the offseason — but the coaching staff suffered a blow losing Tom Coughlin. I’ll gladly take a wait-and-see approach on Ben McAdoo.
Verdict: Push
Jets
I really like the Jets roster outside of the quarterback position. No matter who’s behind center, this team will get to at least eight wins.
Verdict: Over
7.5 wins
Falcons
Dan Quinn’s defense will not work without a pass rush, an obvious problem the front office refuses to address. Derrick Shelby is not the solution to your problems, Atlanta. Neither will moving your most promising pass rusher to linebacker.
Verdict: Under
Bears
The Bears could have won eight games last year. With a second season under John Fox and defensive coordinator/wizard Vic Fangio and an overhaul of the front seven, they should hit that mark with ease in 2016.
Verdict: Over
Jaguars
The defense is banking on a lot of first-year players, and Blake Bortles has yet to grow into a consistent quarterback. Jacksonville is on the right path but still a year or two away.
Verdict: Under
Rams
If Todd Gurley stays healthy for 16 games and the defense lives up to its potential, rookie QB Jared Goff won’t have to do much to get this team to eight wins.
Verdict: Over
Buccaneers
Jameis Winston should take a big step in his second season. And dropping defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should instantly improve an underachieving defense.
Verdict: Over
Redskins
First-round pick Josh Doctson adds to an already loaded offense. The defense gets some much needed upgrades in corner Josh Norman and pass rusher Junior Gallete. With that offense, a league-average defense will get this team to a .500 record.
Verdict: Over
7 wins
Lions
Detroit won seven games last season and lost a number of heart-breaking games in the last minute. If their luck marginally improves, the Lions could challenge for a playoff spot.
Verdict: Over
Dolphins
Adam Gase is going to turn Ryan Tannehill into a Pro Bowl quarterback, which should take pressure off a defense that has underachieved in the past.
Verdict: Over
Saints
When did people start underestimating Drew Brees? He’s still a top-three quarterback in the league, and the defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was in 2015.
Verdict: Over
Eagles
Their quarterback situation is a mess, the line still isn’t very good and the defense was only marginally improved in the offseason. Throw in a rookie head coach and you’re looking at a potential disaster in Philadelphia.
Verdict: Under
Chargers
This team just needs to stay healthy, and Philip Rivers will lead it to at least seven wins. There’s a talented roster hidden under the pile of the injured bodies.
Verdict: Over
5.5 wins
49ers
Chip Kelly’s offense is going to score enough points to keep the 49ers competitive. Even last year’s imploding Eagles team won seven games.
Verdict: Over
Titans
Where has this team improved since last year? The offensive line is better on paper, but that’s about it.
Verdict: Under
4.5 wins
Browns
The Hue Jackson-Robert Griffin III partnership will get off to a promising start, but the schedule is rough and the roster is far too young for this team to approach a competitive record.
Verdict: Under
And they draft Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson w the first pick.
