Post by mscott59 on Sept 11, 2016 11:56:16 GMT -5
7-5.
North Carolina State -5 at East Carolina -he may be ecu's 1st yr head coach, but you can bet scottie montgomery knows better than to lead his team out of the locker room screaming 'we'll play chess! we'll play chess!!'. pirates have a minnesota transfer, phillip nelson, at qb who threw for about 400 yds, 5 td's and ran for 2 more. ncsu has a boise st transfer at qb who also played well in their opener, and has 2 nice rb's in samuels and dayes. wolfpack just 2-7 ats in their last 9 lined games (tho 5-0 ats its last 5 as road chalk), while ecu has covered 9 straight vs ooc, and is 16-6-1 ats getting points at home. cfb nerd stat #1 of the week; week 2 home dogs off a 35+ su win are 38-18 ats since '90. east carolina.
Penn State +6 at Pittsburgh - nice to see this game back on the schedule. nitts looked bad the 1st half, much better in the 2nd vs kent st. the aforementioned conner for pitt is a feel-good story for the season. the trends look bad for both; psu is a putrid 1-11-1 ats away from home the last 3 yrs, 0-4 ats the last 4 getting pts on the road. pitt is just 4-9 ats as home faves, 3-8 ats vs ooc lately. i think barkley makes some big plays for the visitors, and when in doubt take the points. i'm in doubt. penn state.
Utah State +16 1/2 at Southern California - hard to believe the trojans actually led alabama for most of the 1st half, 3-0, before the tide started rolling. and rolling. and rolling. so where is their psyche? if history is any indication, odds are they'll bounce back. the last 4 times usc lost a game by 30+ (going back to '85), they are 4-0 ats the following week. and in the last 10 regular season games after sc has allowed 35+ and is favored, they won/covered all 10. but usu is no pushover. the aggies are a stellar 12-0 ats when getting 10+ pts away from home, and they run the ball well, something usc couldn't handle last week as that game went on. trojans are 5-1 ats the last 3 yrs vs ooc foes at home. the one they didn't cover against? utah state in '13. i'll take utah state in '16 too.
Kentucky +17 at Florida - saw a story where, the last time uk beat uf, the average car price was $9000 and the #1 show on tv was 'murder she wrote'. the 'cats' 2nd half collapse vs southern miss was nasty, but they have enough chops on offense to move the ball. remember last year... the gators picked off a pass on their own 20 yd line to save a 14-9 win. uf is 8-1 ats the last 9 in this series, but just 7-16 as home chalk the last 4 years. i like the gators when getting points, not when giving. kentucky.
Northern Illinois +15 at South Florida - niu lost in 3 ot at wyoming last week, and the game was delayed over 2 hrs by lightning. the huskies have been very good dogs the last few years; 21-7-1 ats its last 29 road games getting points. usf is not so good at home (5-11 ats as favorites). niu's qb hare is coming off a torn achilles last yr; i think he's a good one. northern illinois.
Arkansas +7 1/2 at Texas Christian - 2 old southwest conference rivals battle for the first time since that league broke up. i think. both lucky to pull out wins last week. hogs struggled running the ball (106 yds behind 3 new o-linemen) and their new qb threw 2 picks. tcu's new qb, hill, went nuts, tossing for 439 yds and running for 3 td's. arkansas is 5-1 ats as ooc road dogs of 14/less. tcu is just 2-7-1 ats vs the sec. both have been good overall lately vs the number (hogs 17-8-1 ats, frogs 18-8 ats). but a new qb on the road and lack of rushing game have me leaning to a favorite this time. tcu.
Iowa State +15 at Iowa - don't let isu's loss to northern iowa fool you; this is the biggest game on their schedule. and they've done well in iowa city, covering 4 straight there as well as the last 4 getting 17+ as ooc dogs. also 13-5 ats the last 18 games in this rivalry. the hawkeyes are just 6-16 ats at home since '12, and actually were outgained by miami u despite winning 45-21. but cfb nerd stat #2; teams w/new coaches (like isu) who won less than 5 games the previous year (isu won 3) are just 3-18 ats as dogs or 10+ vs teams off a 24+ win. but i'm sure everybody knows that.
a shaky nod to iowa.
BYU +3 1/2 at Utah - one of the best rivalries west of the mississippi. last year's holy war actually happened in the las vegas bowl. utah turned early turnovers (including 2 pick 6's) into a 35-0 1st qtr lead, then didn't score the rest of the game as the cougars fought back but fell short 35-28, despite outgaining the utes by nearly 200 yds. utah didn't run the ball well in its opener; byu did (williams had 162 on the ground vs arizona). cougs are also 10-4 as away dogs, and now they have revenge too. byu.
North Carolina -9 at Illinois - another rematch here. unc last year pasted the illini 48-14 and it wasn't that close. but as i mentioned last week, the heels have lost a lot of weapons on offense, and i wasn't impressed w/new qb trubisky vs uga. lovie smith has instilled some new emotional juice into the program in champaign-urbana, and illinois is a pretty good home dog (19-9 ats, including 9 of the last 10). not only does the illini also benefit from the cfb nerd stat #1 listed above, game 2 favorite teams who were bowlers last year and lost their opener are just 6-18-1 ats as ooc road chalk since '90. i... l... l... i...n...i...
Virginia Tech +11 1/2 vs. Tennessee - in his hey day, you went against frank beamer as a dog at your own peril. even in his last 4 years he went 9-5 ats getting points. but he ended his career going just 1-5 ats vs sec opponents. the hokies played quite sloppy (4 turnovers) vs liberty. that won't work vs the vols' defense, which i think is the better d in this game. as i've mentioned this week, i think tennessee was seriously peeking ahead and nearly paid a big price for it. they'll be worth the money in this one. tennessee.
Texas Tech +3 at Arizona State - these teams come from different leagues, but have the same traits. lots of offense, lots of holes on defense. the red raiders are a good ooc road dog (10-2 ats), but check out this stat. since todd graham has been the coach in tempe (started in '12), asu is 17-1 ats when they score 40+ pts. tech has allowed 40+ pts 18 times in its last 30 games. arizona state.
Virginia +24 1/2 at Oregon - ok. uva gets outgained by 220 yds by a really good, but lower division, richmond team. the cavs haven't won a road game in 4 years. uo is 81-15 the last 7+ years, but is only giving 24 to a program that hasn't finished above .500 in a decade? what do you think vegas knows? the ducks are a mediocre 12-12 ats as home chalk the last 4 years, 3-7 ats in the last 10 as -21/more. uva meanwhile is 12-6-1 ats lately as 10+ ooc dogs, plus oregon has a trip to unl next week and i'm guessing they're looking ahead, which should help the cavs now go do that voo-doo, that they do, sooooooo welllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. virginia.
Penn State +6 at Pittsburgh - nice to see this game back on the schedule. nitts looked bad the 1st half, much better in the 2nd vs kent st. the aforementioned conner for pitt is a feel-good story for the season. the trends look bad for both; psu is a putrid 1-11-1 ats away from home the last 3 yrs, 0-4 ats the last 4 getting pts on the road. pitt is just 4-9 ats as home faves, 3-8 ats vs ooc lately. i think barkley makes some big plays for the visitors, and when in doubt take the points. i'm in doubt. penn state.
Utah State +16 1/2 at Southern California - hard to believe the trojans actually led alabama for most of the 1st half, 3-0, before the tide started rolling. and rolling. and rolling. so where is their psyche? if history is any indication, odds are they'll bounce back. the last 4 times usc lost a game by 30+ (going back to '85), they are 4-0 ats the following week. and in the last 10 regular season games after sc has allowed 35+ and is favored, they won/covered all 10. but usu is no pushover. the aggies are a stellar 12-0 ats when getting 10+ pts away from home, and they run the ball well, something usc couldn't handle last week as that game went on. trojans are 5-1 ats the last 3 yrs vs ooc foes at home. the one they didn't cover against? utah state in '13. i'll take utah state in '16 too.
Kentucky +17 at Florida - saw a story where, the last time uk beat uf, the average car price was $9000 and the #1 show on tv was 'murder she wrote'. the 'cats' 2nd half collapse vs southern miss was nasty, but they have enough chops on offense to move the ball. remember last year... the gators picked off a pass on their own 20 yd line to save a 14-9 win. uf is 8-1 ats the last 9 in this series, but just 7-16 as home chalk the last 4 years. i like the gators when getting points, not when giving. kentucky.
Northern Illinois +15 at South Florida - niu lost in 3 ot at wyoming last week, and the game was delayed over 2 hrs by lightning. the huskies have been very good dogs the last few years; 21-7-1 ats its last 29 road games getting points. usf is not so good at home (5-11 ats as favorites). niu's qb hare is coming off a torn achilles last yr; i think he's a good one. northern illinois.
Arkansas +7 1/2 at Texas Christian - 2 old southwest conference rivals battle for the first time since that league broke up. i think. both lucky to pull out wins last week. hogs struggled running the ball (106 yds behind 3 new o-linemen) and their new qb threw 2 picks. tcu's new qb, hill, went nuts, tossing for 439 yds and running for 3 td's. arkansas is 5-1 ats as ooc road dogs of 14/less. tcu is just 2-7-1 ats vs the sec. both have been good overall lately vs the number (hogs 17-8-1 ats, frogs 18-8 ats). but a new qb on the road and lack of rushing game have me leaning to a favorite this time. tcu.
Iowa State +15 at Iowa - don't let isu's loss to northern iowa fool you; this is the biggest game on their schedule. and they've done well in iowa city, covering 4 straight there as well as the last 4 getting 17+ as ooc dogs. also 13-5 ats the last 18 games in this rivalry. the hawkeyes are just 6-16 ats at home since '12, and actually were outgained by miami u despite winning 45-21. but cfb nerd stat #2; teams w/new coaches (like isu) who won less than 5 games the previous year (isu won 3) are just 3-18 ats as dogs or 10+ vs teams off a 24+ win. but i'm sure everybody knows that.
a shaky nod to iowa. BYU +3 1/2 at Utah - one of the best rivalries west of the mississippi. last year's holy war actually happened in the las vegas bowl. utah turned early turnovers (including 2 pick 6's) into a 35-0 1st qtr lead, then didn't score the rest of the game as the cougars fought back but fell short 35-28, despite outgaining the utes by nearly 200 yds. utah didn't run the ball well in its opener; byu did (williams had 162 on the ground vs arizona). cougs are also 10-4 as away dogs, and now they have revenge too. byu.
North Carolina -9 at Illinois - another rematch here. unc last year pasted the illini 48-14 and it wasn't that close. but as i mentioned last week, the heels have lost a lot of weapons on offense, and i wasn't impressed w/new qb trubisky vs uga. lovie smith has instilled some new emotional juice into the program in champaign-urbana, and illinois is a pretty good home dog (19-9 ats, including 9 of the last 10). not only does the illini also benefit from the cfb nerd stat #1 listed above, game 2 favorite teams who were bowlers last year and lost their opener are just 6-18-1 ats as ooc road chalk since '90. i... l... l... i...n...i...
Virginia Tech +11 1/2 vs. Tennessee - in his hey day, you went against frank beamer as a dog at your own peril. even in his last 4 years he went 9-5 ats getting points. but he ended his career going just 1-5 ats vs sec opponents. the hokies played quite sloppy (4 turnovers) vs liberty. that won't work vs the vols' defense, which i think is the better d in this game. as i've mentioned this week, i think tennessee was seriously peeking ahead and nearly paid a big price for it. they'll be worth the money in this one. tennessee.
Texas Tech +3 at Arizona State - these teams come from different leagues, but have the same traits. lots of offense, lots of holes on defense. the red raiders are a good ooc road dog (10-2 ats), but check out this stat. since todd graham has been the coach in tempe (started in '12), asu is 17-1 ats when they score 40+ pts. tech has allowed 40+ pts 18 times in its last 30 games. arizona state.
Virginia +24 1/2 at Oregon - ok. uva gets outgained by 220 yds by a really good, but lower division, richmond team. the cavs haven't won a road game in 4 years. uo is 81-15 the last 7+ years, but is only giving 24 to a program that hasn't finished above .500 in a decade? what do you think vegas knows? the ducks are a mediocre 12-12 ats as home chalk the last 4 years, 3-7 ats in the last 10 as -21/more. uva meanwhile is 12-6-1 ats lately as 10+ ooc dogs, plus oregon has a trip to unl next week and i'm guessing they're looking ahead, which should help the cavs now go do that voo-doo, that they do, sooooooo welllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. virginia.
