The Dirty Dozen -- "Surely you can't be serious..."

[Deleted]

THURSDAY GAME:

Louisville -14 @ Houston: Louisville

SATURDAY GAMES:

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor: Baylor 

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU: TCU 

Florida +13.5 @ LSU: Florida

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado: Washington State

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming: Wyoming

Indiana +24 @ Michigan: Indiana

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia: West Virginia 

USC -13.5 @ UCLA: USC 

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake: Clemson

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State: Michigan State

[mscott59]

making up 20 games in 2 weeks to get to the top is a little unrealistic, but getting back above .500 would be a moral victory.

THURSDAY GAME:

Louisville -14 @ Houston: lamar jackson has already broken the l'ville record for total yds as a qb, w/at least 2 games still left in the season. but the cards were down 12-10 to wake forest w/10:00 left in the game before exploding to win 44-12. very deceiving final score. houston's d is still pretty good. this is l'ville's 3rd road game in 4 weeks. they do have revenge after losing to the cougars last yr, and they're 8-4 ats as road chalk lately. but uh is 7-0-1 as home dogs, and since '05, when uh has a winning record (they're 8-2 so far this yr), their record is 40-9 su, w/no losses by more than 13 pts. qb greg ward's health remains a wild card, but on senior night? maybe herman's last home game? houston. win. easy $$, finally. only took 3 mos.

SATURDAY GAMES:

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor: the karma around waco was already shaky before qb seth russell's awful leg injury last week in norman. so what's left in the tank? especially w/true frosh zach smith taking the snaps? ksu is 8-0 ats off a bye week, but the 'cats are also an inconsistent 5-4 so far in '16, and the bears haven't been a home dog in 4 yrs. this is also their last home game for the season, and i'll take a chance they play inspired. baylor loss. bad guess.

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU: tcu enters off a bye, after a 62-22 drubbing of baylor. but the previous 3 weeks, the frogs only put up 58 pts total vs kansas, wvu and tx tech. so i'm not sold quite yet. tcu has the better d in this matchup, but i like the cowboys' qb mason rudolph, who has 24 td's and just 4 picks. okla st got their scare last week slipping by tx tech on a missed xp, and they're still in the big 12 title hunt. oklahoma state. win

Florida +13.5 @ LSU: tigers bounced back from the 'bama loss nicely in pounding arkansas, while uf handled south carolina despite more inconsistency on offense and the locker room becoming more like mash unit w/injuries. but the gators still control their sec east destiny. home team has won/covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. lsu's d will be the best uf faces this year imho, but all the emotional mojo i think is with the gators. plus they're 5-0 ats getting 10+ pts vs a team off a win. i don't know how, but... florida. win. congrats to uf

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado: talk about new $$ in cfb; wsu leads the pac-12 north, cu is 1st in the south. these 2 might be playing again in the ccg. cougars qb luke falk has been outstanding this yr, but the defense for both these teams has been more impressive. buffs are top 10 in pass d effeciency; wsu allows just 123 yd/game rushing, which could slow down cu rb philip lindsay. cu is 9-1 ats as home chalk, but i like good teams getting pts and wsu is, indeed, a good team. washington state. loss. underestimated cu

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming: aztecs have already clinched a spot in the mtn west title game. wyoming dropped a 66-69 triple ot heartbreaker to unlv last wk but at 7-3 is having it's best season since '11. sd state has a superior run game w/pumphrey just 340 yds away from becoming the all time fbs rush leader. the cowboys are allowing nearly 5 yds/carry to opponents. normally i would take a good home team getting pts, especially with winter arriving in the heartland this weekend as well as the altitude. but (cfb nerd stat alert) home teams off an ot loss where they allowed 45+ are just 6-13 ats. loss. bad pick

Indiana +24 @ Michigan: there's a theory amongst those who actually make $$ (i'm not this yr, that's for sure) in this business, called bubble burst. undefeated teams who lose late in the season usually struggle the next game. um fits that category this week after the shocking 14-13 loss at iowa. w/o'korn taking over for the injury speight at qb plus expected nasty weather, you'd think harbaugh would focus on a run/d-oriented game plan. but the wolverines rushed for just 98 yds vs the hawkeyes, and iu held psu to 79 yds. barkley had just 20 yds on his 1st 20 carries, ending up w/just 58. iu hasn't lost a game by 26 pts in nearly 3 yrs. their d is good enough to hang around, they're 4-1 ats getting 10+ vs big 10 opponents, and um has the game on deck. indiana. win

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia: along w/okla st, the other 2 teams w/a shot at the big 12 crown. wvu still feeling disrespected despite a 8-1 record, w/ou being ranked much higher despite being 8-2. sooners have the better offense, especially w/perine rejoining mixon in the run game. 'eers have the better d, holding opponents to 101 yds below their weekly average. ou has won the last 4 in this series, so revenge is a motivator as well for wvu in morgantown, who is 5-2 ats as a big 12 home dog, 3-0 ats vs teams off a win. west virginia.

USC -13.5 @ UCLA: you could argue there's no team not based in tuscaloosa playing better than the trojans right now. qb darnold has turned this team around, while the bruins have ex-walk on mike fafaul under center now. but... home team is 14-5 ats in this series the last 2 decades, usc is just 11-22 ats as road favorites, and (cfb nerd stat alert #2) teams off upsetting a 9-0/better team (sc beating washington 26-13) are just 8-24 ats in their next game vs a team w/revenge. u... c... l... a... u-c-l-a-fight-fight-fight (for walt-lol)

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame: gobblers laid a real egg last week vs ga tech, while the irish finally figured out how to beat one of the service academies and kept its bowl hopes alive. nd's defense has actually improved in the last 4-5 games, so i wouldn't be surprised w/a low scoring game. va tech is just 1-4 ats away from home so far this yr. last home game for the irish, and they're 12-2 su in season finales. notre dame.loss. what happened to the irish? weren't they up by 10+ at one point?

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake Forest: that bubble burst theory applies here too for the tigers. it was turnovers (and bad luck on a couple calls) that did clemson in, not their offense, which moved up and down the field vs pitt. the demon deacons held down l'vile for 50 minutes before collapsing in the last 10. i wonder whether playing a 2nd straight week vs a high octane offense will be too much. but wake is 8-5 ats in this series, 5-0 ats as 10+ home dogs lately, and the tigers are 0-7 ats giving 18+ on the road vs acc opponents. been going back and forth on this one... wake forest.

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State: sparty spoiled osu's season last year. weather in east lansing saturday may be pretty similar too; winds of 25-35 mph and temps in the low 40s expected (i'm taking an extra coat, or 3). that revenge factor bodes well for the buckeyes, but 3 tds worth? in that weather? the visitor in this series has covered an amazing 7 straight, but msu is 11-2 ats as home dogs w/8 outright upsets. bucks are a strong 15-1 ats the last 16 times they've played w/revenge. but the cfb nerd stat alert #3 sways me the most; teams off back/back wins where they've scored 40+ and allowed 10/less are just 12-28-2 ats as road favorites lately. michigan state. win.

[beuycek]

Louisville -14 @ Houston - Cards

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor - KState -- WIN

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU - Pokes -- WIN

Florida +13.5 @ LSU - Geaux Tigers

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado - Buffs -- WIN

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming - Cowboys -- WIN

Indiana +24 @ Michigan - Hoosiers -- WIN

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia - Sooners -- WIN

USC -13.5 @ UCLA - Men of Troy -- WIN

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame - Irish

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake - Tigers

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State - Go Bucks!

[trnyerheadncough]

Nov 17, 2016 12:43:10 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

making up 20 games in 2 weeks to get to the top is a little unrealistic, but getting back above .500 would be a moral victory.

As an aside to your picks, it should be noted that although I haven't checked it precisely, it appears there is only one player since we've started this thing in 2012 who has played in every season (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and this year), as well as finished on the correct side of the mendoza every year.

That's in jeopardy as I'm parked at -5, and can't seem to find the mojo.

A couple of players (BaM, Mickey), have, or appear to be on their way to finishing on the plus side for every year they have played...but they lack longevity. Gatr has all plus years, except 1, where he finished exactly 0.

EDIT:

I went back and found all the results. In 2012...we didn't have a separate group, but here's what I found. Check on page 220..something, to see. Had to do some quick math because I didn't do the final tally that year..

So...if I'm reading it right, the final totals of 2012:

Trn: +8
cbis: +4
Kaz: +2
CWG: 0
A1: 0
MScott: 0
Walt: -8
Beuy: -10
Dalek: -14

Final Totals of 2013:

Trn: +24
Dalek: +14
CWG: +14
Beuy: +10
Robb: +10
ET: +2
Gatr: 0
A1: -4
Max: -6
cbis: -6
MScott: -8
Walt: -10
IHS: -10
Kaz: -12
Fred: -30
Flotus: -45
Willie: -923

Final totals of 2014:

MScott: +35
Gatr: +13
Beuy: +9
Trn: +5
cbis: +3
ET: +3
BaM: +1
CWG: +1
Coal: +1
Dal: -1
Walt: -9
Robb: -13
Lz: -15
Lee: -19
Kaz: -21
Fred: -25
Al1: -27
Max: -29
OldGrayLady: -31
OUJour: -31

Final totals of 2015:

Gatr: +27
BuckeyeDale: +23
BgVol: +19
BaM: +15
MScott: +11
Rox: +11
OUJ: +9
Dalek: +5
Trn: +5
Mickey: +5
Robb: +5
OldGrayLady: +5
cbis: +5
Coal: +3
Chastity: +1
Kaz: -1
Beuy: -1
Walt: -3
Fred's Wife: -5
Nitro: -7
ET: -9
CWG: -9
Lz: -11
Lee: -19

[oujour76]

HOU
BAY
OSU
LSU
WSU
WY
IU
OU
USC
ND
WAKE
tOSU

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2016 14:50:20 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

Nov 17, 2016 12:43:10 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

making up 20 games in 2 weeks to get to the top is a little unrealistic, but getting back above .500 would be a moral victory.

As an aside to your picks, it should be noted that although I haven't checked it precisely, it appears there is only one player since we've started this thing in 2012 who has played in every season (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and this year), as well as finished on the correct side of the mendoza every year.

That's in jeopardy as I'm parked at -5, and can't seem to find the mojo.

A couple of players (BaM, Mickey), have, or appear to be on their way to finishing on the plus side for every year they have played...but they lack longevity. Gatr has all plus years, except 1, where he finished exactly 0.

EDIT:

I went back and found all the results. In 2012...we didn't have a separate group, but here's what I found. Check on page 220..something, to see. Had to do some quick math because I didn't do the final tally that year..

So...if I'm reading it right, the final totals of 2012:

Trn: +8
cbis: +4
Kaz: +2
CWG: 0
A1: 0
MScott: 0
Walt: -8
Beuy: -10
Dalek: -14

Final Totals of 2013:

Trn: +24
Dalek: +14
CWG: +14
Beuy: +10
Robb: +10
ET: +2
Gatr: 0
A1: -4
Max: -6
cbis: -6
MScott: -8
Walt: -10
IHS: -10
Kaz: -12
Fred: -30
Flotus: -45
Willie: -923

Final totals of 2014:

MScott: +35
Gatr: +13
Beuy: +9
Trn: +5
cbis: +3
ET: +3
BaM: +1
CWG: +1
Coal: +1
Dal: -1
Walt: -9
Robb: -13
Lz: -15
Lee: -19
Kaz: -21
Fred: -25
Al1: -27
Max: -29
OldGrayLady: -31
OUJour: -31

Final totals of 2015:

Gatr: +27
BuckeyeDale: +23
BgVol: +19
BaM: +15
MScott: +11
Rox: +11
OUJ: +9
Dalek: +5
Trn: +5
Mickey: +5
Robb: +5
OldGrayLady: +5
cbis: +5
Coal: +3
Chastity: +1
Kaz: -1
Beuy: -1
Walt: -3
Fred's Wife: -5
Nitro: -7
ET: -9
CWG: -9
Lz: -11
Lee: -19

If I hadn't taken a -15 in week 2 when I stupidly quit for a week after week 1 last year, I'd be above the Mendoza Line in the years I participated, 13/14/15 and now 16. That's what one gets for wearing their feelings on their sleeve around here. Just don't do it. With the -15, I was surprised when I didn't finish in last place. 

[oujour76]

Nov 17, 2016 17:48:37 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Nov 17, 2016 14:50:20 GMT -5 trnyerheadncough said:

If I hadn't taken a -15 in week 2 when I stupidly quit for a week after week 1 last year, I'd be above the Mendoza Line in the years I participated, 13/14/15 and now 16. That's what one gets for wearing their feelings on their sleeve around here. Just don't do it. With the -15, I was surprised when I didn't finish in last place. 

It's happened to others as well...this year, it was Doc, who started late.  Same has probably happened to others.  In '14 (my first year) I entered late as well...think I was something like -22 or -24 right off the bat. So it goes...good thing no money is at stake.

[gatr55555]

Louisville -14 @ Houston: Louisville


Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor - KState W

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU - TCU

Florida +13.5 @ LSU - Gators W

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado - Colorado W

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming - Wyoming W

Indiana +24 @ Michigan - Hoosiers W

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia - West"by god"Virginy

USC -13.5 @ UCLA - USC W

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame - VT W

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake - Clemson

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State - MSU W

[Lee The Locksmith]

Pig and a poke this week...

Louisville -14 @ Houston - Cards

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor - Kansas

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU - Oak state

Florida +13.5 @ LSU - LSU

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado - Weed smoking liberal Denver dudes

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming - Cowboys

Indiana +24 @ Michigan - Hoosiers

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia - Okie

USC -13.5 @ UCLA - Trojans

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake - Klemzon

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State - Michigan state

[Walter]

THURSDAY GAME:

Louisville -14 @ Houston: TooLate
but holy crap 31-zip at the half?

SATURDAY GAMES:

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor: Baylor

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU: Oklahoma State

Florida +13.5 @ LSU: Lsu

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado: buffs

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming: SDS

Indiana +24 @ Michigan: Michigan

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia: Oklahoma

USC -13.5 @ UCLA: USC

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame: Irish

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake: Clemson Forest

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State: MSU[/quote]

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2016 21:44:24 GMT -5 Walter said:

THURSDAY GAME:

Louisville -14 @ Houston: TooLate
but holy crap 31-zip at the half?

SATURDAY GAMES:

Kansas State -2.5 @ Baylor: Baylor

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ TCU: Oklahoma State

Florida +13.5 @ LSU: Lsu

Washington State +4.5 @ Colorado: buffs

San Diego State -9.5 @ Wyoming: SDS

Indiana +24 @ Michigan: Michigan

Oklahoma -3 @ West Virginia: Oklahoma

USC -13.5 @ UCLA: USC

Virginia Tech PK @ Notre Dame: Irish

Clemson -22.5 @ Wake: Clemson Forest

Ohio State -22.5 @ Michigan State: MSU

[/quote]

Shoulda picked Houston, Walt.

[Deleted]

I'd like to officially change my pick to Houston.

Just got a feeling

[daleko]

Nov 18, 2016 10:19:44 GMT -5 @cwgbuckeyes35 said:

I'd like to officially change my pick to Houston.

Just got a feeling

Prescient you are.

[Deleted]

Nov 18, 2016 13:38:49 GMT -5 daleko said:

Nov 18, 2016 10:19:44 GMT -5 @cwgbuckeyes35 said:

I'd like to officially change my pick to Houston.

Just got a feeling

Prescient you are.

He's om impotent.

[beuycek]

Nov 18, 2016 16:12:14 GMT -5 @kelliers said:

Nov 18, 2016 13:38:49 GMT -5 daleko said:

Prescient you are.

He's om impotent.

I see what you did there...