Post by mscott59 on Nov 27, 2016 12:46:11 GMT -5
4-8. Yuck.
Thursday Game:
LSU -6 1/2 @ TAMU: 2 programs w/coaching drama still going on. have to figure both orgeron and sumlin are on their way out. so which team fights thru? lsu has won/covered 5 straight in the series. tigers have done better vs sec competition than the aggies. even w/fournette still having a bum ankle, guice could go over 1000 yds today. lsu is just 4-8 ats lately as road chalk, but a&m is 0-4 ats as home dogs of 8/less, sumlin is just 7-19 ats vs .500+ sec opponents, and get this (cfb nerd stat #1); the aggies are 38-116-4 ats in league games where they don't score at least 28 points. lsu hasn't allowed more than 21 in any game this year. good enough for me. louisiana state.
Friday Games:
NC State +11 1/2 @ UNC: tar heels have won 4 of 5 and could still make the acc title game. wolfpack has lost 5 of 6 and needs this game to be bowl eligible. unc has the better offense but nc state is deceptively good (top 20) on d. visiting team has won/covered the last 3 in the series, and in the last 18 games, the dog is 15-3 ats w/12 outright upsets. good enough for me. north carolina state.
Washington -6 @ Washington State: biggest stakes for the apple cup in decades with the winner going to the pac 12 ccg. uw burned me last week, allowing a backdoor cover to asu. while the cougars got bounced by the buffalos. allowing 17 straight 2nd half points. that took a bite out of the wallet too. visitor is 10-6 ats lately in the series, but in his career wsu coach mike leach is 40-22-1 ats off a loss. tough call here but i'll take the points. washington state.
TCU +3 @ Texas: who knows the state of mind in austin for the 'horns, after losing to ku and likely losing their coach soon too. tcu is an equally disappointing 5-5 this year. foreman needs just 137 to hit 2000 yds rushing for the year. wow. frogs are 14-6-1 ats as road dogs, but their d is nothing like past years. i think charlie strong will see a strong effort and see his team become bowl eligible. at least he'll have that going for him. which is nice. texas.
Toledo +9 @ Western Michigan: another meaningful season-ender, w/the winner taking the mac west. wmu remains the only school not in tuscaloosa to be w/o a loss in d-1, but this will be a test. both have good offenses w/1000 rushers and qb's who've passed for nearly 3000 yds. the dog in this series has covered 9 of the last 10, the rockets have revenge from an upset loss to the broncos last year. toledo.
Saturday Games:
Michigan +6.5 @ Ohio State: the last 3 years, osu has put up exactly 42 points on the ugly hats. neither team has done anything close to that in the history of this storied series. bucks have a decided edge at qb and defensive secondary, w/um looking stronger on the front 7. from a line standpoint, the favorite has won 11 straight, but has only gone 3-3-1 ats the last 7. quadruple revenge for the wolverines, and that's inviting, but they're just 5-14 ats as single digit dogs lately. osu has won/covered 8 straight when favored by less than 10. the ohio state university.
Notre Dame +17 @ USC: trojans are rolling, the irish reeling. a soft usc defensive front has toughened against the run, which is bad news for a rush-oriented nd offense. favorite is 10-4 ats lately in the series, and usc is 22-12 lately as home chalk. but... the last 7 times the irish has been a dog of 7+, they've covered 6 of them. notre dame.
Auburn +17.5 @ Alabama: tide slept-walked (sleep-walked?) thru tenn-chatt last week, while auburn buried alabama a&m (alabama has an a&m?) after its shocking loss to georgia. really a shame that most of the national talk has focused on everyone but saban's team, who's been outstanding in all facets to date. both teams have really good defenses; the question for au is whether peltway and white are healthy enough to make a difference for the war eagle offense. cfb nerd stat #2; unbeaten teams playing a .666+ team in the regular season finale are just 5-15-2 ats when giving 10+ points. going against the tide can singe the wallet, but i'll take the points with auburn.
Michigan State +12 @ Penn State: so, do osu fans really want psu to lose? if the bucks look like they've locked up a playoff berth w/a win over -ichigan? msu actually played osu tougher, at least more even, than psu did back in october. both sparty and the nitts have good defenses, and a talented feature rb. both also have qb's who are inconsistent passers. dantonio is one of the best coaches as a dog in the country. counting last week, 12-2 ats w/8-nearly 9-outright upsets, and 17-1-1 ats getting points vs a team off a su/ats win. penn state's had one of the better feel-good seasons in cfb, but i think this will be close. michigan state.
South Carolina +24 @ Clemson: hard to see the gamecock offense hanging w/clemson's high powered attack. but the tigers have seemed to be playing w/increasing tightness and pressure as the season winds down. 24 is a lot of points in this intense rivalry, where usc-e has covered 6 of the last 7. but dabo is due. clemson.
Utah +10 @ Colorado: another feel-good story in boulder could continue. a win for cu puts them in the pac 12 title game. the utes come off a shocking loss to oregon. buffs are 10-1 ats w/revenge (lost 20-14 at utah last yr). colorado.
Florida +7 @ Florida State: tough spot for the gators, who end their season at baton rouge, at tallahassee and vs alabama in atlanta. but a great season considering everything they've gone thru. that said, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat beating lsu. tough to pull that off 2 straight weeks, even w/all the fisher-lsu talk swirling. noles have won 5 of the last 6 in this series by an average of 19 pts. florida state.
movie quote? clueless, kind of like my picks so far this year. bad here, and the wallet's taken a hit too. and i'm tired of lightening my wallet...
Thursday Game:
LSU -6 1/2 @ TAMU: 2 programs w/coaching drama still going on. have to figure both orgeron and sumlin are on their way out. so which team fights thru? lsu has won/covered 5 straight in the series. tigers have done better vs sec competition than the aggies. even w/fournette still having a bum ankle, guice could go over 1000 yds today. lsu is just 4-8 ats lately as road chalk, but a&m is 0-4 ats as home dogs of 8/less, sumlin is just 7-19 ats vs .500+ sec opponents, and get this (cfb nerd stat #1); the aggies are 38-116-4 ats in league games where they don't score at least 28 points. lsu hasn't allowed more than 21 in any game this year. good enough for me. louisiana state.
Friday Games:
NC State +11 1/2 @ UNC: tar heels have won 4 of 5 and could still make the acc title game. wolfpack has lost 5 of 6 and needs this game to be bowl eligible. unc has the better offense but nc state is deceptively good (top 20) on d. visiting team has won/covered the last 3 in the series, and in the last 18 games, the dog is 15-3 ats w/12 outright upsets. good enough for me. north carolina state.
Washington -6 @ Washington State: biggest stakes for the apple cup in decades with the winner going to the pac 12 ccg. uw burned me last week, allowing a backdoor cover to asu. while the cougars got bounced by the buffalos. allowing 17 straight 2nd half points. that took a bite out of the wallet too. visitor is 10-6 ats lately in the series, but in his career wsu coach mike leach is 40-22-1 ats off a loss. tough call here but i'll take the points. washington state.
TCU +3 @ Texas: who knows the state of mind in austin for the 'horns, after losing to ku and likely losing their coach soon too. tcu is an equally disappointing 5-5 this year. foreman needs just 137 to hit 2000 yds rushing for the year. wow. frogs are 14-6-1 ats as road dogs, but their d is nothing like past years. i think charlie strong will see a strong effort and see his team become bowl eligible. at least he'll have that going for him. which is nice. texas.
Toledo +9 @ Western Michigan: another meaningful season-ender, w/the winner taking the mac west. wmu remains the only school not in tuscaloosa to be w/o a loss in d-1, but this will be a test. both have good offenses w/1000 rushers and qb's who've passed for nearly 3000 yds. the dog in this series has covered 9 of the last 10, the rockets have revenge from an upset loss to the broncos last year. toledo.
Saturday Games:
Michigan +6.5 @ Ohio State: the last 3 years, osu has put up exactly 42 points on the ugly hats. neither team has done anything close to that in the history of this storied series. bucks have a decided edge at qb and defensive secondary, w/um looking stronger on the front 7. from a line standpoint, the favorite has won 11 straight, but has only gone 3-3-1 ats the last 7. quadruple revenge for the wolverines, and that's inviting, but they're just 5-14 ats as single digit dogs lately. osu has won/covered 8 straight when favored by less than 10. the ohio state university.
Notre Dame +17 @ USC: trojans are rolling, the irish reeling. a soft usc defensive front has toughened against the run, which is bad news for a rush-oriented nd offense. favorite is 10-4 ats lately in the series, and usc is 22-12 lately as home chalk. but... the last 7 times the irish has been a dog of 7+, they've covered 6 of them. notre dame.
Auburn +17.5 @ Alabama: tide slept-walked (sleep-walked?) thru tenn-chatt last week, while auburn buried alabama a&m (alabama has an a&m?) after its shocking loss to georgia. really a shame that most of the national talk has focused on everyone but saban's team, who's been outstanding in all facets to date. both teams have really good defenses; the question for au is whether peltway and white are healthy enough to make a difference for the war eagle offense. cfb nerd stat #2; unbeaten teams playing a .666+ team in the regular season finale are just 5-15-2 ats when giving 10+ points. going against the tide can singe the wallet, but i'll take the points with auburn.
Michigan State +12 @ Penn State: so, do osu fans really want psu to lose? if the bucks look like they've locked up a playoff berth w/a win over -ichigan? msu actually played osu tougher, at least more even, than psu did back in october. both sparty and the nitts have good defenses, and a talented feature rb. both also have qb's who are inconsistent passers. dantonio is one of the best coaches as a dog in the country. counting last week, 12-2 ats w/8-nearly 9-outright upsets, and 17-1-1 ats getting points vs a team off a su/ats win. penn state's had one of the better feel-good seasons in cfb, but i think this will be close. michigan state.
South Carolina +24 @ Clemson: hard to see the gamecock offense hanging w/clemson's high powered attack. but the tigers have seemed to be playing w/increasing tightness and pressure as the season winds down. 24 is a lot of points in this intense rivalry, where usc-e has covered 6 of the last 7. but dabo is due. clemson.
Utah +10 @ Colorado: another feel-good story in boulder could continue. a win for cu puts them in the pac 12 title game. the utes come off a shocking loss to oregon. buffs are 10-1 ats w/revenge (lost 20-14 at utah last yr). colorado.
Florida +7 @ Florida State: tough spot for the gators, who end their season at baton rouge, at tallahassee and vs alabama in atlanta. but a great season considering everything they've gone thru. that said, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat beating lsu. tough to pull that off 2 straight weeks, even w/all the fisher-lsu talk swirling. noles have won 5 of the last 6 in this series by an average of 19 pts. florida state.