time to put some lipstick on this pig of a pickin' season. these haven't been the days of thunder, more like days of gloomy skies.
Friday Games:
Western Michigan -18.5 v. Ohio: kind of the miniature version of the sec ccg; wmu has looked unbeatable, while ohio u won the east as the only team in the division w/a .500+ record. the dog has covered 6 of the last 8 mac title games w/3 outright upset wins, and the bobcats have been a strong dog (6-2 ats) this yr/last. but the broncos actually have some talent, like wr corey davis, who will be in a nfl training camp next year, and qb zach terrell has tossed 30 td's vs just 1 pick, plus they are also 6-2 ats in their last 8 games as road chalk. but, despite beating toledo by 3 td's last week, wmu actually got outgained. plus since the inception of ccg's, teams who've won at least 19 of their previous 22 games are 6-19-3 ats when favored by less than 20 pts. ohio u.
Colorado +7.5 v. Washington: 2 good stories in these schools playing before what will likely be a lot of empty seats in palo alto. uw is off the blowout win over rival washington st, while cu survived utah. both have real good defenses, but husky qb jake browning is definitely a cut above his counterpart. you wonder if the buffs will be a little looser, since washington has more of the playoff pressure. colorado is 4-0 ats as a dog this year, 7-1 ats off a win/non-cover. huskies are 2-7 ats off a 28+ win. colorado.
Saturday Games:
Temple +3 v. Navy: middies get to play this title game at home in annapolis, and have to play it w/arch rival army on deck next week (1st time ever for a cfb ccg team). owls have covered 11 straight games this year... unreal. make it 12. temple.
Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Oklahoma: 2 good qb's in this year's bedlam matchup. i'm guessing ou's baker mayfield will be in nyc for the heisman ceremony (35 td's vs 8 picks), but osu's mason rudolph (25 td's/4 int's) is close. the cowboys run defense is a concern, especially w/mixon and perrine carrying the ball for the sooners. but the visitor has covered the last 4 in this series, and the last 11 times ou has been a 10+ favorite in this game off back/back wins, the guys from stillwater have covered all 11. oklahoma state.
Baylor +18 v. West Virginia: bears started out 6-0, and now have lost 5 straight su/ats. wvu has a stingy pass d, baylor's run d is thin, just like their injury-riddled roster. but baylor is 9-2 ats as a road dog the last 6 years. 'eers are 1-4 ats w/big 12 revenge. i'll take a flyer on baylor.
Alabama -24 v. Florida: 9th time these 2 have met in the sec title game, w/each winning 4. uf has won 7 since '92, w/a win alabama will match that. last year uf got the backdoor cover, but even tho their d has been awesome this year, you wonder if they've worn out physically after playing fsu and lsu the last 2 weeks. the tide's d has been virtually impenetrable. they don't need a big win and will likely coast if they're up by a decent amount in the 2nd half, which makes giving 24 dangerous. but when in doubt, go w/the better team. this year there is no doubt. alabama.
Clemson -10 v. Virginia Tech: one of our girls, who graduated from clemson in '11, currently is taking grad classes and working at va tech. i asked her what she thought about this matchup; her response... 'you mean the season's not over?' not much help. tigers have reminded me of '15 ohio state; talented, but seemingly cruising w/a late season upset maybe giving them a jump. clemson's pass offense vs the gobblers' top 10 pass d. cu has not been good (1-4 ats) as acc favorites, while tech is 6-1-1 ats as a dog. i think this one stays interesting to the end. virginia tech.
Wisconsin -2.5 v. Penn State: 4th time in 6 yrs the badgers have been in the big 10 moneymaker, 1st time for the nitts. psu in off 8 straight wins/covers (by 14/game!!) with osu at #2 in the rankings, this game easily has the most intrigue as to the fate of whoever wins. mcsorley's pass game and fleet feet i think are the difference. plus the favorite in the 1st 5 league ccg's has gone 2-3 su/0-5 ats. penn state.