BOWL DOUCHE TOURNAMENT
PART 1
12/20 - BOCA RATON BOWL – Boca Raton
Memphis +5
Western Kentucky
2 of the better mid-major programs in the last 5 yrs. tigers are great on offense, quite leaky on d. wku won the cusa and has better o/d numbers, but lost their coach to purdue. interim coaches are 2-12 ats vs teams who scored 40+ in their last game. a shaky lean to memphis. feel much better about the over.
loss. but i hit the over. does that count? lol12/21 - SAN DIEGO COUNTY - POINSETTIA BOWL – San Diego
Wyoming +9.5
BYU
byu was a fun team to watch this yr. 7 games decided by 7/less. won their last 4, but those teams went a combined 15-33. cougs only beat one team who had a winning record this year, and the cowboys are 6-1 ats as dogs in '16. wyoming.
win12/22 - IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Boise
Idaho +13.5
Colorado St
both teams covered their last 7 games of the season. csu pounded mwc champ san diego state by 30+ this year, and is very balanced on offense. idaho throws more. it's a psuedo-home game for the vandals. i'll take the points in another shootout. idaho.
win. right on the shootout too12/23 - ARMED FORCES BOWL – Ft. Worth
Navy +5
Louisiana Tech
middies lost both their starting qb and 2nd best rb, on the same play, in their aac title game loss to temple, which also was a huge factor in their loss to army the next week. la tech had a great season considering they had to replace 13 starters, including qb. this new kid taking snaps, higgins, has been incredible, throwing for 4200+ and 37 td's vs just 8 picks. i expect navy's back up qb, zach abey, to be better in his 2nd start, and their offense is a pain for teams to prepare for. despite that, the bulldogs have too much firepower.
louisiana tech edit. i tried to talk myself into going against the usna, and i just can't. la tech is not a good favorite, the middies are a great road/bowl dog. navy.
win. good audible.12/23 - DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL – Mobile
Ohio +3.5
Troy
from the godaddy.com bowl to the dollar general bowl. no wonder there's been a drop in sexy advertising for this one. troy in its 1st bowl since beating ohio in new orleans 6 yrs ago. bobcats have been inconsistent on offense but pretty scrappy on d. they have a d-lineman, tarrell basham, who has a shot at playing on sundays. 11.5 sacks this year. matter of fact, ou had 12 sacks in their last 4 games. troy is better everywhere else, but that los battle may keep it close. ohio u.
loss, tho the line went up to +6.5 so i did get a little $$. bobcats had 5 turnovers and still missed covering this line only by a hooked 4th qtr fg12/23 -DAILY DOUBLE – PICK BOTH GAMES CORRECTLY, GET ADDITIONAL POINT
12/26 ST. PETERSBURG BOWL – St. Petersburg
Miami – Ohio +13.5
Mississippi St.
miami u has, historically, been one of the best non-major programs in cfb history. still #23 in alltime win pct, 679 wins. but since ben rothlisberger led the redhawks to a 13-1 season in '03, they've had just 3 winning seasons, and had gone 13-47 the last 5 years. they began '16 0-6, then ran off 6 straight wins and tied for 1st in the mac east. kudos. the problem? those 6 teams went a combined 26-47. uh oh. msu qualified for the post season despite a 5-7 record due to high apr scores. kudos there too. no doubt who has more talent here, and i think nick fitzgerald played very well at qb replacing dak prescott, rushing for 1200 yds and passing for 2300. but here's the thing; in the bulldogs' 4 ooc games this year, they lost to south alabama, struggled vs umass, lost to byu, and allowed 627 yards in offense to fcs samford. the last 9 times they've been -10/more vs ooc, msu is just 3-6 ats. i'll take the real miami u.
win. i know this from experience... having 2 kicks blocked in a game you lose stinks. lol12/26 - QUICK LANE BOWL - Detroit
Boston College +1
Maryland
may be more people on the field than in the stands for this one. terps did go 6-6, but went 1-6 su/0-7 ats vs bowl opponents (beating ucf). decent run game but a sieve on d. and defense is bc's strength, allowing opponents just 3.3/carry and 107/game on the ground. their offense sucks, but they'll look better going up against maryland and their test pattern helmets. boston college
win, tho the terps proved yet again that turnovers just kill you.12/26 - INDEPENDENCE BOWL - Shreveport
Vanderbilt +4
North Carolina St.
2 above average defenses in this one. wolfpack was one of the few to corral clemson's attack. only 2 sec foes scored more than 2 td's vs vandy's d, and one of them, tennessee, still lost to the 'dores. webb is a good rb for them, but they have almost no passing game. still, vu won 4 of its last 6 to become bowl eligible, including back to back upsets over ol' miss and the vols. nc state lost 5 of its last 7. plus i'm trying to find the last time the pack were favored vs a sec opponent. i'm still looking... vanderbilt
loss. i was impressed w/the wolfpack. they looked surprisingly good.12/26 - TRIFECTA – PICK ALL THREE GAMES CORRECTLY, GET ADDITIONAL 2 POINTS
12/27 - HEART OF DALLAS BOWL - Dallas
Army
North Texas +10
this is a rematch of a mid-october game that saw n tex beat the cadets 35-18 as a 19 point underdog at west point, helped a lot by 7 army turnovers (usma outgained ntu by 100+ yds). factor in the hangover from their 1st win over navy in 14 years, and their 7-33 su record in road/bowl games, giving 10 is way too generous. north texas.
win.12/27 - MILITARY BOWL - Annapolis
Temple
Wake Forest +11.5
from the game plan i just received from winston-salem, ... oops... never mind. off its best season in school history (10-4) last yr, the owls matched it in '16, going 10-3 w/an aac title and 12 straight covers ats. one of the better d's in the country, 2 rb's who gained 900+ yds fueling a balanced offense. what does that add up to to me? a favorite giving too many pts, especially after losing their head coach. i wonder if they'll be as motivated to play wake, who has its challenged on offense but has a pretty good defense. plus (nerd stat alert #1) bowl teams who lost their last 3 games (like the deacons did) are 11-3 ats vs teams off back/back su/ats wins. low scoring and close. wake forest.
win. wrong on the total, right on the demon deacons12/27 - HOLIDAY BOWL – San Diego
Minnesota +7.5
Washington St.
the uncertainty over the playing status of 10 gopher players makes this tough to call. wsu can pass all day long (averaging 370+/game), but play little defense. minnesota's pass game is not so hot, but they rush for nearly 200/game. favorites in this bowl are 0-4 ats recently, and cougar coach mike leach is just 1-5 ats in his last 6 bowls. shaky lean to minnesota.
win. nice win for the gophers.12/27 - CACTUS BOWL - Phoenix
Boise St.
Baylor +7.5
baylor's '16 implosion, losing its last 6 games, is well documented. they also lost their starting qb for the season in november. boise went a quietly effective 10-2, but struggled the 2nd half of the season (covered just 1 of 7), including a 3d straight loss to air force. the bears d allowed 43+/game to end the season. that's just too much to ignore... boise state.
way wrong. a buddy of mine was big on baylor and i should have listened to him.12/27 QUADRIFECTA – PICK ALL FOUR GAMES CORRECTLY, GET ADDITIONAL 3 POINTS
12/28 - PINSTRIPE BOWL – New York
23 - Pittsburgh
Northwestern +5.5
pitt's offense was out of this world in '16, averaging 42 pts and 448 yds/game. n'western only allowed 3 opponents to score more than 24. the panthers' d was sieve-like, giving up more yds (451/game) than its offense gained. that concerns me for a favorite. plus i think the wildcats still have a bad taste in their mouth for the complete embarrassment of last year's 45-6 drilling it received in the capital one bowl from tennessee. northwestern.
win. again, a wildcat foe can't top 24.12/28 - RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - Orlando
16 - West Virginia +3
Miami
tough game to call. down the stretch, the canes' d was stingy, giving up about 360 yds/19 pts a game in november. wvu's d was disastrous, getting blasted for 493 yds and 30 pts/game in its last 6. the 'eers offense has been prolific, though, putting up 500 yds/game, even actually outgaining oklahoma despite losing 56-28. 2 good qb's (brad kaaya for miami, skyler howard for wvu). mountaineers are 3-0 su/ats the last 3 times they've been a bowl dog, and the u (cfb nerd stat alert #2) is 0-5 su/ats in bowl games where they've allowed 18+ to an opponent. i think wvu can put up 18+. west virginia.
loss. miami looked very good. team to watch in '1712/28 - FOSTER FARMS BOWL – Santa Clara
Indiana +7.5
19 - Utah
bit of a surprise that iu canned kevin wilson at the end of the season. hoosiers were very competitive in their 6 losses, 3 of them to top 10 foes. you always wonder how team chemistry gets affected by that. similar story for the utes, whose 4 losses were all by 7/less. but kyle wittingham is still head coach there, and he's been very good in the post season. matter of fact, in the last 13 years (includes urban meyer's tenure there too) utah is 11-1 su/10-2 ats in bowls. no team in the country has been better. the streak continues. utah.
loss. hurryin' hoosiers looked very scrappy, but utah had to settle for 4 fg's, 2 of them inside the 15. sometimes that's how it works out.12/28 - TEXAS BOWL - Houston
Texas A&M
Kansas St. +2
another tough call here. does anyone else feel that bill snyder has coached at kansas state since kansas became a state? last yr he had his 1st losing (6-7) season since coming out of retirement in '09, and bounced back to 8-4 w/a typical run first, take care of the ball (+11 turnover ration this season) strategy. the aggies started 6-0 and in the cfb playoff hunt then lost its last 4 league games to end up at 8-4 also. wide open offense (468 yds/game), w/a defense that seemed wide open (444 yds/game) to most opponents. sec bowlers have done very well (14-2 ats) vs big 12 opponents in the last few years, but snyder is 10-0 ats as a dog of 4/less lately. like i said, tough call. i'll lean ever so slightly to texas a&m.
loss. wrong way to lean.12/28 QUADRIFECTA – PICK ALL FOUR GAMES CORRECTLY, GET ADDITIONAL 3 POINTS
9-7 in round one... no bonus points.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
win. i know this from experience... having 2 kicks blocked in a game you lose stinks. lol
