damn it. wrote this up this am only to see my connection go away. one of these days i will learn to copy posts to avoid the fist pounding... shortened version below.
1. 31-AUG TULSA +18 at OK STATE scoreboard operators will need back ups. new qb for tulsa goes on the road for the opener vs a cowboy offense that has nearly everyone back. tulsa just 5-16 ats vs big 12 foes. osu is 7-2 ats at home vs the golden hurricane, 12-6 ats at home vs ooc. oklahoma state.
2. 31-AUG OHIO STATE -21 at INDIANA 1st time tosu has opened w/a league game since '76, 1st time on the road since '75. high expectation for the bucks per usual, but iu has covered the last 6 in the series, and the last two in bloomington have decided by 10 pts total. hoosiers were much improved (100 yd/game stingier) on d last yr too. meyer is just 2-6 ats as big 10 road chalk of 23/less, iu 8-2 ats as home dogs of 10+, and (cfb nerd alert #1) conference home dogs who won 6/more the previous year are 12-7 ats in season openers since '88, while in the last 5 yrs league road chalk of 20+ in season openers are 0-6 ats. even w/ex-hoosier coach kevin wilson now calling plays for tosu, that's too many trends to ignore. indiana gets the backdoor cover.
3. 1-SEP NAVY -11 at FAU most people said 'fau-who?' when kiffin took the job, but he walked into a pretty good situation on offense. owls have 9 starters back, including a real good rb in devin singletary. the middies go on the road much less experienced, and are just 6-11 ats as double digit chalk. florida atlantic.
4. 1-SEP BOSTON COLLEGE -3 at NORTHERN ILLINOIS bc is rock solid on d, but their offense struggled moving a feather the last couple years. they're also 9-18-1 ats in openers. niu has beaten the last 4 power 5 opponents who visited dekalb, and the huskies are 9-2 ats as home dogs. northern illinois w/the mild upset.
5. 1-SEP COLORADO -6 at COLORADO STATE cu used a 44-7 rout of the rams last year to springboard a surprising 10-4 season. but most of those players are gone, and csu looked real good demolishing oregon state in their opener last week. they're also 6-1 ats the last 7 games getting points. colorado state.
6. 2-SEP MIAMI OHIO at MARSHALL – PICK ‘EM miami did something no d-1 program has done before last yr, losing its 1st 6 games then winning its final 6, and 17 starters from that comeback, uh, come back this yr. defensively the red hawks excelled. the herd fell to 3-9 after 3 straight 10+ win seasons, a perfect bounceback scenario. so, do i go w/the alma mater of my sister michele, or where dad (and mamaw scott) got degrees? i'll lean w/dad. marshall.
7. 2 SEP SOUTH CAROLINA +6 at NORTH CAROLINA STATE wolfpack is another program w/17 returning starters, and i think a darkhorse to make some serious noise in the acc atlantic. they're 15-5 ats as home faves and 11-2 ats vs ooc foes. muschamp doubled the win total in yr 1 from 3 to 6, and the gamecocks are 9-2 ats vs acc opponents, and normally i like sec teams getting pts outside the conference, but they're going up vs a very good d-line. nc state.
8. 2-SEP TROY STATE +11 AT BOISE STATE last yr troy came within a whisker of knocking off clemson on the road as 35 pt dogs. i like their qb, silvers, who's back this yr. plus the trojans are 7-1 ats as road dogs. bsu is just 12-27 as home chalk and may be peeking ahead to next week's matchup vs washington. upset alert. troy
9. 2-SEP MICHIGAN -3.5 vs FLORIDA - (in Arlington TX) um goes from the most experienced team in the country to the greenest, w/just 6 starters back. 1 on d. tough spot to open the season on the road vs a high profile opponent. uf is 14-6-1 ats on neutral fields, and their d appears to remain very good. but... you still wonder about the team karma after all the suspensions. ugly hats are 6-1 ats the last 7 times they've been favored by 7/less and there's this trend i saw this week (cfb nerd alert #2); teams who lost their bowl game as favorites of 7+ (um lost to florida st 33-32) who are dogs or favorites -10/less in game 1 the next season are 10-0 ats since 1990. that's science. you can't argue w/science. you can argue w/the choice of uni saturday night... those all maize gear um will wear may be harder on the eyes than last week's eclipse... but i'll go w/um surprising folks as a favorite, if that makes sense. michigan.
10. 2-SEP ALABAMA -7 vs FLORIDA STATE - so, just how long has it been since alabama had a returning starter at qb? lol. actually 2 good ones taking snaps here. my biggest question is whether fsu's o-line can keep francois upright most of the game. 6th straight yr the tide has opened on a neutral site (5-0 su, 4-1 ats), but the noles under fisher are more experienced (16 starters back, 10 on d) and are 9-1 su7-3 ats vs sec opposition. tide wins but florida state covers.
11. 2-SEP BYU +13 vs. LSU – tigers certainly look to have the advantage in all aspects (offense, d, special teams) as orgeron starts his 1st full season as head coach. that said, i like tanner magnum, byu's qb for most of the past 2 seasons. cougars looked mediocre in a 20-6 win over portland state last week, but i like dogs who have a game under their belt vs a team playing their opener. byu keeps it under the number.
12. 2-SEP MARYLAND +17 at TEXAS count me among those who think tom herman walked into a goldmine in austin. yes charlie strong went 5-7 last yr, but 5 of those 7 losses were by a total of 22 pts. 17 starters return for the longhorns, and after 3 straight losing seasons they are poised to make a big splash in the big 12 and maybe more. terps are just 3-9 ats getting 10+ pts, and even tho they made a bowl last yr, they went just 2-7 su/ats to finish the season. texas rolls.
13. 3-SEP TEXAS A&M +4 at UCLA lots of folks think both these coaches (sumlin, mora) are on the hot seat this year. aggies 15-0 su/10-4-1 ats in august/sept games the last 5 years, but just 3-7 getting pts on the road. bruins are even worse (3-10 ats at home). but they're 6-2 ats in ooc revenge games, and 13-5-1 ats in season openers. i thought ucla outplayed a&m in college station last year, and rosen is the better qb. slightest of leans to u-c-l-a.
14. 3-SEP WEST VIRGINIA +4.5 at VIRGINIA TECH glad to see these two rivals play again (52nd mtg, but 1st since '05). both are pretty green, but uf transfer will grier gives the 'eers an edge at qb. gobblers are 0-7 ats in season openers vs fbs teams. but wvu is only 14-34 ats vs acc opponents. virgina tech.
15. 4-SEP GEORGIA TECH +4 at TENNESSEE yellow jackets an impressive 10-5 ats as dogs lately, but i think this line is influenced by how badly the vols' injury-ravaged d played down the stretch last year. a shaky nod to bowo. tennessee.
SUBSTITUTE GAME SHOULD BYU/LSU BE CANCELLED
16. 2-SEP CAL +11 AT NORTH CAROLINA heels 8-4 ats as home chalk, bears 2-8 ats as road dogs. plus this game kicks off at 12 noon edt, which is 9 am pdt. too early. unc.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
....The slippery slope begins..
