WEEK 2
quote sounds like something from police squad. my 4-9-2 start is something from voyage to the bottom of the sea. definitely need to start floating back up to the surface, beginning this week.
1. NEBRASKA +14 at OREGON
last week the huskers barely survived arkansas state. last year they knocked off the ducks 35-32 in what looked like a big win at the time. a deceiving look as it turned out. unl is 14-6-1 ats away from lincoln. but they have 3 wr's banged up this week. uo started a bunch of freshmen in '16, so lots of experience returning for new coach willie taggert. huskers all'd 150 yds rushing last week, and freeman et al for uo are better running the ball. oregon
2. NORTHWESTERN -3.5 at DUKE
blue devils 5-2 ats getting pts at home the last 4 years, and have revenge after losing in evanston 24-13 in '16. wildcats struggled w/nevada but has won 10 of 12 vs the dukies and w/17 starters back, is the better team. n'western.
3. LOUISVILLE -10 at NORTH CAROLINA
cards had lots of problems, surprisingly, w/purdue, while unc had even more trouble at home w/cal. and teams who were in bowls the previous season and lost their opener as double-digit chalk are 3-10 ats in game 2. heels also have to face lamar jackson. louisville.
4. IOWA -2.5 at IOWA ST
hawkeyes off a 24-3 win over wyoming, despite only tallying 263 total yds. isu got pummeled 42-3 last yr, and is 9-7 ats getting pts at home, but 0-4 ats getting 10/less. hawks are an impressive 10-2 ats as road chalk. i think rb akrum wadley has a big day. iowa.
5. PITT +21 AT PENN ST
nitts are 13-10 ats as home faves, 10-0 ats off ats wins of 14+ (beat akron 52-0 last wk), but pitt is 9-0-1 ats on the road getting more than a td. hard to see the panthers slowing down psu's offense who's scored 35+ in 8 straight games, but 21 is a lot to give. pittsburgh.
6. AUBURN +5.5 at CLEMSON
clemson's title run kicked off w/an impressive 19-13 win on the plains last yr. that was 1 of 7 wins of a td/less. tough to continue that kind of track record. cu's strength on both los is impressive, but i like war eagle's duo of qb stidham and rb pettway. au is 7-1 ats on the road w/revenge, while the home team is just 5-9 ats as ooc home faves of 15/less. plus (cfb nerd stat alert #1) defending national champs are just 4-21 ats the following yr as ooc chalk vs revenge. auburn.
7. GEORGIA +4 at NOTRE DAME
as above, another case of sec teams getting pts on the road vs ooc, which is attractive. oddity here is that, even after uga lost qb eason, that this line moved from -6 to -4. irish rushed for 422 vs temple last week in a blowout win... don't see that happening tomorrow. dawgs are 14-2 ats in ooc games off a win, but 1-6 ats as road dogs of late. nd just 2-4 ats as home chalk; they have the better offense, going up against uga's superior d. i'll take the d. georgia.
8. OKLAHOMA +7.5 at OHIO STATE
another good team getting pts on the road. ou is 22-3 su in its last 25 road games, 6-0 ats in ooc away games off a win. bucks just 11-15-1 ats as home faves the last 4 yrs. but meyer is 30-8-1 ats vs ooc opponents when off a 20+ win. lots of talk about oklahoma's o-line vs the buckeyes' talented and deep d-front. but the biggest key may be whether the sooners' front 7 can stop tosu's run game. i'm guessing they can't. and it's a guess. ohio state.
9. STANFORD +6.5 at USC
trees beat the trojans 27-10 last yr. darnold didn't start for sc and played only briefly. sc is 24-12 as home favorites. stanford is 12-3 ats the last 15 times they've gotten points. trojans 11-2 ats w/double revenge. no way i'd bet this game, but here i have to. southern california.
10 UTAH -1 at BYU
byu had just 97 total yards vs lsu, and never crossed the 50. utes have dominated this series (6 straight wins) lately, and are 12-3 ats vs ooc foes off a loss. utah.
11. WESTERN MICH +7 at MICHIGAN ST.
broncos played very well in the la coliseum vs trojans, but will be tough to keep that up vs a 2nd straight bcs opponent. msu was sluggish out of the gate vs bgsu but cruised to a 35-10 win, their new qb impressed me w/his mobility too. michigan state.
12. TCU -3 at ARKANSAS
hogs were favored when this line opened, but it moved 6 pts in favor of the frogs. hey... hogs and frogs. that's funny. last yr tcu blew a 28-20 lead in the final 2:00 thk to a costly unsportsmanlike penalty, with arkansas winning 41-38 in 2ot despite being outgained 403-572. tcu has 17 starters back, arkansas is one of the greenest. razorbacks are 6-0 ats as home dogs of 7/less, tcu just 2-6 ats as road favorites the last 2 yrs. cfb nerd stat alert #2; game 2 road chalk, off a shutoff win (tcu won 63-0 last wk) are 7-0 ats since '13. texas christian.
13. INDIANA -3 at VIRGINIA
hoosiers looked good for 2 qtrs, especially throwing the ball, vs tosu. but they only managed 27 yds rushing. iu is actually 4-1 ats the last 5 times they've been a road favorite, but uva is 12-5 ats getting pts at home. cavs do have some fg issues which could matter, but hard to see indiana covering if they can't move the ball on the ground. virginia.
14. SOUTH CAROLINA +2.5 at MISSOURI
gamecocks got outgained by 258 yds at nc state but still found a way to win. impressive but not a good pattern to follow. love their qb brantley. mizzou gave up 388 yds, and 35 pts, in the 1st half alone, to fcs missouri st last week. i'll take the pts. south carolina
15. BOISE ST. +10.5 at WASHINGTON ST
broncos slipped by troy. cougars are 15-6 ats lately, but bsu is a fantastic dog (22-11 ats). still, i think they are on the slide, and mike leach is on the uptick. washington state.
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