well shoot. plum forgot about my picks, which since there was a game last night i'm already down 1, but i will plug on with the saturday games.
(5-1) #10 AUBURN -6.5 AT (4-2) LSU
lsu had a big revenge win in gainesville last week, but this is another revenger. tigers thought they'd beaten au on the game's final play, but was called off because the clock ran out. war eagle has covered 4 of the last 5 in series, they're 6-3 as road chalk (lsu just 1-4 lately getting pts in death valley), but just 1-10 ats on the road vs sec revenge. lsu has taken 8 straight at home in the series, and i think they keep it close. even in the daylight. louisiana state.
(5-0) #25 NAVY +4 AT (4-1) MEMPHIS
love the middies here in what should be a high scoring affair. navy is averaging an astounding 400+ on the ground per game; the tigers gave up 350 yds rushing to ucf 2 weeks ago and their d is beat up w/injuries. memphis is just 4-12 ats at home vs league foes, while usna is 7-2 ats in aac road games. cfb nerd stat alert; 5-0 road dogs since '80 are 25-5 ats vs league foes allowing 15+ game. anchors aweigh my boys. u.s. naval academy.
(4-1) #21 MICHIGAN STATE -4 AT (3-2) MINNESOTA
sparty's win in ann arbor came despite gaining just one 1st down (on their last possession) for the entire 2nd half. msu is holding opponents to 168 yds under their season average and they've played a much tougher schedule than the gophers. that said, big green is just 1-8 ats as road chalk in this series, p.j. fleck is 13-2 ats in his career as a home dog, and i smell letdown for the favorite. minnesota.
(4-1) UTAH +13 AT (4-1) #13 USC
utes are 13-2 ats lately as 7+ underdogs, and trojans have notre dame next week, who gets their blood boiling more than utah does. utah.
(3-2) TEXAS +7.5 VS (4-1) #12 OKLAHOMA
last 3 games in the red river shootout have been decided by a td/less, and the 'horns have covered the last 4. ou is off 2 absolute stinkers, losing at home to iowa state and frankly should have lost at baylor. which is why i like the sooners here... since '99 they are 28-0 su/21-7 ats off a loss vs big 12 foes. oklahoma.
(4-2) OREGON +10.5 AT (3-2) STANFORD
after getting blown out at washington state, i think the ducks are getting some value here, especially vs a stanford defense that is uncharacteristically poor, allowing 435/game. oregon
(4-1) TEXAS TECH +6.5 AT (3-2) WEST VIRGINIA
3rd road game in 4 weeks for the red raiders, while this is homecoming for wvu and its only home game in a 5 game stretch. tech is 4-1 ats vs the 'eers, and off a blowout win at ku. tt is also 8-1 ats w/big 12 revenge, and i think the home team is going to have a tough time getting back up after losing close at tcu last week. texas tech.
(5-0) #6 TCU -4.5 AT (3-2) KANSAS STATE
normally i'd love ksu here, who is 9-2 ats as home dogs while the frogs are just 6-13 ats giving pts on the road. but wildcat qb zack ertz is banged up, which tempers my enthusiasm. still tcu got outgained by 100+ yds vs wvu. and 5-0 teams as road chalk off a home win are just 19-39-2 ats vs opponents w/revenge. kansas state.
(3-1) GEORGIA TECH +5.5 AT (4-0) #11 MIAMI
canes off an emotional comeback win at fsu, but they are 7-1 su/ats the last 8 vs the ramblin wreck. but miami is riddled with injuries and the triple option is tough to prepare for, especially in the wake of getting revenge vs the noles. georgia tech.
(3-2) BOISE STATE +7 AT (5-0) #19 SAN DIEGO STATE
this year is the first time in 4 seasons that boise state has been a dog in a true road game (this is #2). bsu is 37-18 ats away from boise, aztecs 19-11-1 ats since '15. and i think their run defense is really good. san diego state.
(5-0) #5 WASHINGTON -17.5 AT (2-3) ARIZONA STATE
asu has won 10 of the last 11 games in this series, going 11-0 ats. they're also 4-0 ats as double digit home dogs. arizona state.
(3-2) UCLA -2 AT (3-2) ARIZONA
ua getting points at home despite a surprising win in boulder over cu behind backup qb khalil tate, who had a game one vegas smart guy said might have been the greatest ever played by a cfb qb (327 yds rushing on just 14 carries w/4 td's, while going 12-13 thru the air for 154/1 td). tate and the bruins' josh rosen may get the headlines, but i think the wildcat defense is the difference. arizona.
(4-1) #17 MICHIGAN -6.5 AT (3-2) INDIANA
is it possible that um will be homecoming fodder for iu today? doubt it. hoosiers haven't beaten the wolverines since '87... reagan was still president. um's offensive woes are well documented, but their defense has held opponents to 200 yds under their season average. wow. indiana is just 6-16 ats off a bye week since the mid 90s. plus they are 4-0 ats when getting 10+ vs um, 0-2 ats when getting single digits. these are single digits. michigan.
(4-2) TEXAS A&M +3 AT (3-2) FLORIDA
aggies were down by 3 tds vs alabama before making that game close at the end. uf lost on a bad snap extra point try to lsu. but the gators are 14-7-1 ats vs sec opponents lately; texas a&m is just 3-11 ats on the sec road. and october is usually the time they start struggling. florida.
(5-1) OHIO STATE -24 AT (3-3) NEBRASKA
huskers have not been this big a home dog in 50+ years. plus there's revenge on their mind from getting past 62-3 in columbus last fall. tosu's offense since the ou loss has scored 38, then 54, then 56, then 62. hard to believe that will continue, even w/unl's shaky defense. bucks under meyer are 16-9 ats/24-1 su in road games. that 1 loss was last year in state college, and the nitts are next on the schedule. not a fan of giving 24 on the road w/that scenario. nebraska.
(6-0) #2 CLEMSON -22.5 AT (3-3) SYRACUSE
well, i would have taken the orange of 'cuse to cover (not win) over the orange of clemson, but this is a miss.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
