Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2017 20:56:03 GMT -5
so, game #7 i'm listing first... and will get the rest of my picks in later.
florida state -3 at boston college. you could make a pretty strong argument that these two have played the toughest schedules in the country so far. bc is looking for their 3rd straight outright win as a dog, the noles have yet to cover a game in '17 and 3 of their losses are by a combined 13 pts. love the bc rush attack but their d is giving up about 225/game on the ground. fsu has dominated this series, they are (or should be) in red alert mode just to make a bowl, and the eagles are 0-5 ats off back/back wins. still see a huge talent edge in favor of fsu. florida state.
1. (7-0) #3 GEORGIA -14 VS FLORIDA (3-3)
uf has taken the last 3 in the series, all by 10+. gators are also 7-0 ats off a week of rest. dawgs are 0-7 ats lately off a bye. no doubt who the better team is here, and the bizarre stuff surrounding mcelwain (did he get death threats? is he making it up?) makes it hard to believe uf can win this one, but off 2 close losses as favorites, 14 is too many pts to give. florida.
2. (7-0) #2 PENN STATE +6.5 AT #6 OHIO STATE (6-1)
yesterday i played golf in an outing and it was 67 degrees at 3:30 pm. as i look out my window while typing this, it's snowing and 35. should end by kickoff but it will be wet and raw at the shoe. situationally bucks have the edge, w/psu coming in off a revenge win over um w/tosu off a bye week thinking revenge from last year's loss. how is the #2 team in the country a nearly td underdog? nitts are 0-6-1 ats as road dogs of under 25 pts and 0-4 ats lately vs teams with rest, while tosu is 14-0 ats w/revenge vs .500+ foes, 7-0 ats as -21/less vs teams off back/back wins. ohio state. OH L@@k! ANOTHER UMMM... NO.
3. (4-3) UCLA +17.5 AT #12 WASHINGTON (6-1)
huskies looked quite pedestrian 2 weeks ago at tempe in a 13-7 upset loss. you'd think this would be a nice bounce-back opportunity vs the pass only bruins. but ucla has had uw's number lately in the series (13-3 su, 11-4-1 ats), and washington is just 3-8 ats off a road favorite loss u... c.... l....a...
4. (6-1) #14 NORTH CAROLINA STATE +7.5 AT #9 NOTRE DAME (6-1)
i said at the beginning of the year how good the wolfpack was across their d-line and o-line, but i'm still surpised they're 6-1. nc state upset the irish last year on a blocked punt in an absolute deluge. so nd has revenge this week like they did last week while burying usc. difference is that this week's opponent is physical. plus their qb, ryan finley, has thrown 313 passes this year w/o a pick. and the pack are 9-2 ats off a bye, 7-0 ats vs .500+ teams. north carolina state.
5. (4-2) GEORGIA TECH +14.5 AT #7 CLEMSON (6-1)
tigers have had a couple weeks to stew over losing at syracuse, while tech is 2 1 point losses away from being unbeaten. they're good. but they're also one dimensional, and cu has gotten off to fast starts vs the jackets recently. but... clemson is 0-3 ats lately off a bye, and 1-7-1 ats as acc home chalk of more than 10 pts. georgia tech.
6. (7-1) #15 WASHINGTON STATE -2.5 AT ARIZONA (5-2)
intriguing game in the balanced pac 12. richrod finally has ua playing well, tho they did blow 2 td leads twice last week before putting away cal in ot. wsu beat the 'cats 69-7 in pullman a year ago. 'zona didn't have qb khalil tate last year. cougars are just 1-4 ats vs league revenge and they've allowed 34 sacks this year, worst in the country. plus (cfb nerd state alert) home dogs off 3 games scoring 40+ are 18-4 ats vs opponents off a win. arizona.
7. (2-4) FLORIDA STATE -3 AT BOSTON COLLEGE (4-4)
this line actually went up to -6 by kickoff. so a lot more people were fooled on this than me. which doesn't make me feel any better. at all. florida state. loss
8. (5-2) MISSISSIPPI STATE -PK- AT TEXAS A&M (5-2)
bulldogs have played a little bit tougher schedule, but the aggies are yet another team this week who is off a bye w/revenge. since a&m blew that 34 pt lead and lost to ucla, they've won 5 of 6, saving coach kevin sumlin's job, at least for now. texas a&m.
9. (7-0) #4 TCU -6.5 AT #25 IOWA STATE (5-2)
2 good defenses here. a year ago tcu was favored over isu by 24. today it's a td. unbeaten teams struggle at this point of the season when favored on the road vs revenge. horned frogs are just 7-13 ats as away chalk, while the cyclones are 7-2 ats w/big 12 revenge, and 5-2 ats as league home dogs of less than 2 td's. iowa state.
10. #21 (6-2) USC -3 AT ARIZONA STATE (4-3)
trojans may qualify as the most overrated team still in the top 25. they've yet to cover a game since week 2. asu has shown signs of life beating washington and utah the last 2 weeks. arizona state.
11. #16 (6-1) MICHIGAN STATE -2 AT NORTHWESTERN (4-3)
trap game for sparty today, having a revenger vs psu on the horizon next week. msu is 0-8 ats as road chalk the last 2+ yrs. but... n'western put up 54 points on dantonio's d last year. the visitor in this series has covered each of the last 8, and the spartans are 8-0 ats w/big 10 revenge. michigan state
12. (5-2) VIRGINIA +3 AT PITT (3-5)
uva came down w/a thud vs boston college last week. pitt beat the cavs 45-31 in charlottesville last yr. panthers are not good home favorites (3-9-1 ats) and i like this kid benkert at qb for the whos to bounce back. virginia.
13. (4-3) FLORIDA ATLANTIC -7.5 AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (5-2)
last week fau put up 804 yards of offense vs north texas. that's hard to do in 7 on 7 no hitting drills. now they play a wku team who beat them 52-3 last year. hilltoppers aren't a home dog very often, but they've been out-statted in 6 of their 7 games this year. florida atlantic
14. (5-2) #22 WEST VIRGINIA +7.5 AT #11 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-1)
this is actually okla st in morgantown. mountaineers are just 1-8 ats after allowing 35+, and they give up a lot of big plays, which is a bad trend when playing the cowboys. osu is 12-1-2 ats as road chalk of -11/less off back/back wins. oklahoma state.
15. (4-3) HOUSTON +10.5 AT #17 (7-0) SOUTH FLORIDA
who has the nation's longest win streak? that would be usf. they are 11-1-1 as home favorites lately. cougars can put up points but not stop anyone. that said... they are 10-1-1 as road dogs the past 4+ years and unbeaten teams this time of year, especially teams who aren't used to it, can start playing tentative. houston.
BONUS GAMES
16. (0-7) BAYLOR +10.5 AT TEXAS (3-4)
'horns just 2-4 ats as road chalk lately, and after emotional losses to ou and okla st, i wonder what's left in their tank. bears have played the sooners and wvu tough of late. baylor.
17. (4-2) UTSA -15.5 AT (0-7) UTEP
utep may be the worst team in d-1a football. texas-san antonio.
18. (0-6) GEORGIA SOUTHERN +25.5 AT TROY (5-2)
well, ok. maybe georgia southern is the worst team in d-1a. gsu fired their coach this week, it won't matter. troy.
