ok, so my girlfriend's a dog.
thx again walt for picking up the reins on this for the season. truly, truly appreciated.
11/23 - THURSDAY
1. (5-6) OLE MISS +16 AT #16 MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-3)
egg bowl is THE bowl for the rebels this year (self-imposed sanctions). visitor has won/covered the last 2 in this series, including the bulldogs' 55-20 beat down in '16 in oxford, ol miss's worst loss in the rivalry since ww1. most of the stats show the 2 teams pretty even on offense, but msu having the much better d. that said, the rebels are 11-4-1 ats in this series w/revenge, and 14-4 ats in the series when they score 21+. i think they can do that. mississippi.
11/24 – FRIDAY
2. (8-3) #24 VIRGINIA TECH -7 AT (6-5) VIRGINIA
hokies have owned the commonwealth cup, and the 'hoos, for 13 straight years. uva outgained miami last week by nearly 100 yds, but turnovers did them in. meanwhile, va tech needed a goal line stand to preserve a win vs pitt. gobblers are not a good road favorite (5-14 ats, 1-6 ats vs revenge), and their only road cover in '17 was at awful east carolina. home team has covered the last 4 in the series, and uva is 8-3 ats at home w/revenge. virginia.
3. (9-1) #22 SOUTH FLORIDA +11 AT #13 CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-0)
ucf was held to under 390 total yards last week vs temple, but got saved by gaining 5 turnovers, which made a 45-19 win a little deceiving. usf slept-walked thru a win vs tulsa. both obviously had their eyes on the i-4 war matchup to decide the aac east. this is the 1st time the bulls have been a road dog in 2 yrs; they're 16-5 ats the last 21 getting 7+ away from home. knights have been good as home chalk (5-2 ats) but have given up an average of 210 yds/game rushing vs recent fbs opponents. disturbing if you're giving double digits. not to mention that trend that goes against unbeatens late in the season. cfb nerd stat alert #1- the last 15 times a 11-0 team has faced a .700+ foe in their finale, they are 5-10 ats. south florida.
11/25 - SATURDAY
4. (11-0) #1 ALABAMA -4.5 AT #6 AUBURN (9-2)
cfb nerd stat #1 applies here too in an iron bowl to decide the sec east w/obvious cfb playoff implications. the tide's lost their top 4 lb's from the pre-season 2-deep to injuries. not that their run d has been bad (just 87 yds/game) but their last 2 sec foes (lsu, msu) gained 151/172. hm. ua is still an outstanding 13-6 ats as road chalk, and has won/covered 5 of 6 in the rivalry. but auburn is an equally good home dog (12-6 ats), has revenge on its side, (6-1-1 ats of late) and can run the ball (244/game) nearly as well as alabama (270/game). saban's team certainly has an edge in experience with big games, but you wonder if their back-loaded schedule, playing their top 3 sec west opponents, might take a toll. a few other factoids; this is just the 4th game in the last 2 yrs where the tide has been a single digit favorite (amazing... 2-1 su/ats)... when au has been good (.750+), saban has never beaten them as a head coach (0-4 su, 1-3 ats) in tuscaloosa/baton rouge. and cfb nerd stat #2-cfb home dogs, off 3 wins where they scored 40+, are 20-4 ats since 1980 vs opponents off a win. i think this one comes down to the final possession/play. auburn.
5. (9-2) #14 WASHINGTON STATE +9 AT #15 WASHINGTON (9-2)
huskies in a spoiler role in this year's apple cup, trying to keep the cougars out of the pac 12 title game. uw has won the last 4 in the rivalry by an average of 23/game. wsu comes in off a bye (5-1 ats in that scenario on the road) and 9-2 ats as +8/more league road dogs. i think luke falk is easily the better qb in this match up, and the cougar d is equal, surprisingly, to that of uw. washington state.
6. (5-6) INDIANA +2.5 AT PURDUE (5-6)
big kudos to pu coach jeff brohm, who's done quite a job getting the boilers to the cusp of a bowl for the 1st time in 5 yrs, which was also the last time purdue won the old oaken bucket. iu also needs a win to be bowl eligible, and comes in off 2 wins. hoosiers have the slightest of edges on o and d, but even behind a backup qb, i like the boilermakers to avoid a record-setting 5th straight loss to the hated hoosiers. purdue.
7. (4-7) VANDERBILT +1 AT TENNESSEE (4-7)
not only has neither of these teams won a sec game yet this year, they are a combined 1-13 ats in conference. yuck. vols have never lost 8 games in a season, ever, and have revenge from a 45-34 loss to vandy last yr. in a matchup this bad, that's enough for me. tennessee.
8. (10-1) #4 CLEMSON -14 AT SOUTH CAROLINA (8-3)
gamecocks have quietly put together a good season. since starting there in '16, will muschamp has only lost 1 game by more than 2 td's... the 56-7 trip to the woodshed at death valley. that's a revenge factor i like. usc-e is 5-3 ats as home dogs the last 4 years, 8-1 ats in the last 9 games getting 10+ in columbia. tigers have won the last 3 in the series and are 5-0 ats the last 5, but are just 1-3-1 ats giving double digits to fbs opponents, and could certainly have look-ahead-itis with the acc title game up next. south carolina.
9. (7-4) LOUISVILLE -10 AT KENTUCKY (7-4)
last yr uk pulled off a shocking 41-38 upset as a 28 pt dog in louisville. i don't see a repeat. 'ville put up 710 yards on syracuse last week, while the cats got railroaded by uga. kentucky is a putrid 5-16-1 ats at home; ul is 26-15 ats on the road. louisville. big.
10. (9-2) #8 OHIO STATE -11.5 AT MICHIGAN (8-3)
tosu has been part of this contest 4 times before this week. the 2 games i picked them to cover, they lost outright. the 2 i picked them to lost to the number, they won by a combined 73 points. that will have nothing to do with how i lean here (wink wink). um has covered each of the last 3 in the series, including last year's 30-27 double ot heartstopper where they controlled the first 3 qtrs and couldn't cash in. this is just the 2nd time in 4 yrs the ugly hats have been home dogs... the last time, in '15, tosu won 42-13. um is just 8-17-1 ats as underdogs. but the bucks under meyer are 2-10-1 ats as favorites of 10+ vs .600+ foes. these 2 teams w/pretty similar stats on d could not be more different on offense. um's qb's have collectively thrown for just 8 td's and 8 picks for the entire season. j.t. barrett has 8= td passes the last 3 weeks. hate to put the voodoo curse on the alma mater again, but with weather not expected to be a factor, i just can't see um can put up enough points in this one. ohio state.
11. (9-2) #9 NOTRE DAME -2 AT #20 STANFORD (8-3)
2 of the better rb's in cfb in adams (nd) and love (su) here. both teams average about 6.5 ypc. my question is whether the cardinal can stop the run... they've struggled there vs good opponents. that said, stanford is 4-0 ats as home dogs of less than a td, while the irish are just 3-7 ats the last 10 times they've been small (td or less) road favorites. mix in a 10-3 ats record as home dogs overall.... i'll lean with the home team. stanford.
12. (7-4) IOWA STATE +3 AT KANSAS STATE (6-5)
ksu comes in off a nice upset win at oklahoma state, and has won 9 straight over the cyclones but isu is 4-1 su this year on the road, while the wildcats are just 1-3 su at home vs big 12 foes. iowa state.
13. (9-2) #25 BOISE STATE -7 AT FRESNO STATE (8-3)
last year fresno st went 1-11. this year ex-cal coach jeff tedford has them 8-3 and in next week's mwc title game vs, the team they play tomorrow. weird. broncos have covered 12 of their last 16 road games. boise state.
14. (4-6) FLORIDA STATE -5 AT FLORIDA (4-6)
noles have won the last 3 in gainesville, but fsu is an unreal 0-8-1 ats so far this season. they've yet to cover a game. no reason to buck that trend. florida.
15. (7-4) ARIZONA -PICK- AT ARIZONA STATE (6-5)
i'm tired and have to be up at 6 am tomorrow to head north on us 23. no more analysis. arizona state.
16. (10-1)#7 GEORGIA -11 AT GEORGIA TECH (5-5)
georgia tech.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
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