BOWL WEEK 3
28DEC17
MILITARY BOWL - ANNAPOLIS
(6-6) VIRGINIA VS (6-6) NAVY +2
both won 5 of their 1st 6, then lost 5 of their next 6. navy offense has struggled scoring lately (44 pts last 3 games) and w/turnovers-penalties. uva has scuffled stopping the run... not a good sign vs the middies. but this is not the navy of recent years. virginia.
CAMPING WORLD BOWL – ORLANDO
#22 (9-3) VR TECH VS #19 (9-3) OK STATE -4
big defense/special teams edge to the hokies, who are also 7-3-1 ats as dogs lately, 9-1 ats w/rest, and 15-6 ats vs ooc. i worry that va tech scored 24+ just once vs a power 5 foe this year, but (cfb nerd stat alert) teams who ended the season w/a blowout win (scored 56+, won by 35+) are just 14-34-1 ats in bowls. virginia tech.
ALAMO BOWL – SAN ANTONIO
#13 (9-4) STANFORD VS #15 (10-3) TCU -2.5
so can tcu's stout d slow down bryce love (1973 rush yds, 8.3/att)? i say no. horned frogs are just 1-6 ats lately as bowl chalk, and the trees are outstanding dogs (11-3 ats, 4-0 ats since '96 in bowls) and off a loss (12-3 ats). stanford.
HOLIDAY BOWL – SAN DIEGO
#16 ( 9-3) MICH ST VS #18 (9-3) WASH ST +1
another good passing offense vs a stingy d. i think sparty has faced a much tougher schedule in '17, and wsu in its last 2 bowls has scored 32 pts total. tough to keep timing sharp for system o's this time of year. michigan state.
29DEC17
BELK BOWL - CHARLOTTE
(7-5) TEXAS A&M VS (7-5) WAKE FOREST -3
aggies were 1-5 su vs bowl teams this year, while the demon deacons went 7-2 ats vs post season teams. wake forest.
SUN BOWL – EL PASO
#24 (8-4) NC STATE VS (7-5) AZ STATE +6.5
wolfpack has the better offense and defense but they've been horrible as chalk this year (1-7 ats) while the sun devils have been solid dogs (5-2-1 ats w/4 outright wins). nc state has been much better in bowls than asu, but... arizona state.
MUSIC CITY BOWL - NASHVILLE
(7-5) UK VS #21 (9-3) NORTHWESTERN -7.5
uk went 1-5 su vs bowl teams and really struggled defending the run. despite winning their last 7 games, nu actually got outgained in 5 of those games. big 10 is just 1-6 su/ats in its last 7 bowls vs sec foes, but the evanston wildcats are better on both los's. northwestern.
ARIZONA BOWL - TUCSON
(6-6) UTAH ST VS (6-6) NEW MEXICO ST +4
from 2012-14, utah st went 30-11. the last 3 yrs? 15-22. new mexico st won its most games since '02, and is making its 1st bowl trip since 1960, when the aggies went 11-0 and beat.... utah state. new mexico state.
COTTON BOWL - ARLINGTON
#8 (11-2) USC VS #5 (11-2) OHIO STATE -7.5
tosu hasn't beaten the trojans since 1/1/74. usc has taken all 7 since, 4 of them by 3 pts/less and another by 9. sc's offense is potent, defense streaky tho strong in the red zone, but they are 1-9 ats as dogs the last 3 yrs. bucks are the only team in the country who finished the year in the top 10 in both offense and defense. w/sparty's win last night, the big 10 is now 11-4-1 ats vs the pac 12 in bowls lately. i think osu's o-line can wear down the trojan front, and (cfb nerd alert) bowl chalk off a ccg win and previous win, both ats losses, are 20-3 ats the last 25 yrs. the ohio state university.