BOWL ROUND 4
30DEC17
TAXSLAYER BOWL – JACKSONVILLE
(8-4) LOUISVILLE VS (8-4) #23 MISSISSIPPI STATE +7
mississippi st. yeah mullen bolted for uf, but sec teams off a loss, as bowl dogs of 4+, with uk's cover yesterday, are now 18-5 ats. despite qb fitzgerald being out w/that ugly ankle injury, and despite cards qb jackson having the incredible season he's had, i'll take the bulldogs.
winLIBERTY BOWL – MEMPHIS
(8-5) IOWA STATE VS (10-2) #20 MEMPHIS -4
memphis. oklahoma and tcu played in the big 12 ccg this month. isu beat them both this year, finished the season w/o losing a single fumble, and they're 19-7 ats vs .700+ teams. but memphis lost to only 1 team this year (ucf twice, once in double ot) and their offense is electric. plus its a home game for the tiger.
lossFIESTA BOWL - PHOENIX
(10-2) #11 WASHINGTON VS. (10-2) #9 PENN STATE -2
penn state. tough call here... psu has been great vs bowl teams the last couple yrs (11-5-1 ats) but away from beaver stadium vs .700+ opponents? try 3-14-1 ats the last 18 games. uw head coach chris peterson is 19-9 ats w/rest and the huskies' tough run d could make the nitts one dimensional. but w/trace mcsorly at qb, that one dimension is still pretty good.
winORANGE BOWL - MIAMI
(12-1) #6 WISCONSIN VS #10 (10-2) MIAMI (FL) +4.5
miami. badgers are solid all around, but the canes' d vs a uw pass offense prone to picks (15 this yr?) uh oh. plus being 1 step away from the playoffs before the osu loss... tough to come back. cfb nerd stat alert; acc teams are 9-2 su/10-0-1 ats vs the big 10 in bowls, and acc bowl dogs are 14-2 ats off a 10+ loss. hope uw wins but i think the canes cover.
loss1JAN18
OUTBACK BOWL – TAMPA
(8-4) SOUTH CAROLINA VS (8-4) MICHIGAN -7.5
south carolina. counting saturday, sec bowl dogs of 4+ off a regular season loss are now 19-5 ats. plus the 'cocks are 6-1 ats getting pts this year, and um is 5-10 as favorites over the last 2 yrs. even tho i think the ugly hats have the edge in offense, defense and special teams, hard to trust them to cover this number w/the issues all season at qb.
PEACH BOWL – ATLANTA
(12-0) #12 CENTRAL FLORIDA VS (10-3) #7 AUBURN -9.5
central florida. when i've seen the knights play this year, they pass the look test imho. i think motivation is a huge coaching concern here for au, after being a step away from the playoffs and getting dusted by uga. ucf is 8-0 at dogs of 4+ off a win, and ccg losers are 4-8-1 ats in bowls as 8+ chalk. the fact that ucf coach scott frost stayed on board to coach this game instead of jetting off to unl matters tons, too.
CITRUS BOWL – ORLANDO
(9-3) #17 LSU VS (9-3) #14 NOTRE DAME +3
notre dame. 2 teams who run the ball well and stop the run well. not many played better than lsu the last 2 mos of the season (6-1 su, 7-0 ats) while the irish stumbled down the stretch (2-2 su, 0-4 ats). from a trend standpoint, surprisingly, that favors nd; bowl teams who've covered 3 straight, playing a team off a su/ats loss, are just 10-24-1 ats, and only 2-12 ats as favorites. our lady is also 6-2 ats under brian kelly as dogs off a favorite loss.
ROSE BOWL - PASADENA
(12-1) #3 GEORGIA VS (12-1) #2 OKLAHOMA +2
really been going back and forth on this one. ou's dynamite passing game and improved run attack vs uga's top 5 defense. can the dawgs' 1-2 ground attack keep mayfield on the bench grabbing his, uh, playbook? sooners have had no issues lately vs sec foes (4-0 su/ats), but since 1980, heisman trophy winning underdogs are 0-6 su/ats in bowls. i believe the last 7 times oklahoma has faced an unbeaten/1-loss opponent in a bowl, they are 1-6 su/ats. mayfield's health is an issue too. but ou is 9-0 as road dogs off a 10+ ats win, and this is georgia's 1st major bowl in a decade, while the sooners have been to playoff/bcs bowls much more often recently. i'll bank on that experience for a shaky nod to oklahoma.
SUGAR BOWL – NEW ORLEANS
(11-1) #4 ALABAMA VS (12-1) #1 CLEMSON +3
so who was the last team to win a national championship after losing their last regular season or league title game? those who entered the bcs title game after a loss didn't fare so well (nebraska, oklahoma). i can't find a team who fits that criteria since the #1 was determined after the bowls (minnesota won the ap poll in '60 before losing the '61 rose bowl). just thought that was interesting. anyway, the tide has a chance to make history. but i think the wrong team is favored. both have dominate defenses, and qb's who can be inconsistent throwing the ball tho both still have had real good seasons. w/alabama's lb's healing up, some feel that will tip the scales. but in playoff games vs foes not named michigan state/washington, the tide has allowed 35, 40 and 42 points. some other interesting tidbits; in clemson's last 15 bowls the dog is 12-3 su and 14-1 ats, a lot has been made of alabama's revenge record under saban but after a loss his tide is just 3-11 ats, and defending national champs are 17-8 su/ats in bowls when a dog or favored by less than 6. in the previous 5 years clemson has knocked off lsu, ohio state twice, oklahoma twice, and split w/alabama. in that same time frame the tide has beaten notre dame, sparty, clemson once and washington, but lost to oklahoma, ohio state and clemson. if you think the wrong team is favored, you take the points. clemson.