looks like 6-9. further below the mendoza line...
quote author="
mscott59" source="/post/468062/thread" timestamp="1536945784"]last week: 8-8. not good, except when you compare it to 5-9-1 in week 1. i'm pacing myself...
1. Vanderbilt at Notre Dame -14
when asked about the 'daunting' task of playing at notre dame in july, 'dores coach derek mason replied, 'we play in the sec. i don't worry about going to south bend.' nice. of course, the last time vandy was unbeaten and talked big when the competition stepped up, alabama came to nashville and left after a 59-0 win. i like kyle shurmur as a qb, but the irish d is a big step up. plus nd's hangover was last week in a sluggish win over ball state. notre dame.
2. LSU at Auburn -10
home team has won/covered the last 4 here, 16-2 su/13-4-1 ats the last 18 games in the series. in '17 war eagle blew a 20 pt lead in a 27-23 loss. au is 7-1-1 ats in sec revenge games of late, 14-2 ats w/revenge vs opponents off back/back wins. lsu is 2-9 ats as road dogs off a 10+ win. lsu qb joe burrow hasn't thrown a pick so far, but he's only completing 48% of his passes and i don't see the tigers from la being able to just run the ball and cover, let alone win. auburn.
3. ColoradoSt at Florida -20.5
csu is 1-0 in sec games after upsetting arkansas 34-27 last week. since '14 the rams are an impressive 7-1 ats as road dogs, w/3 su upsets. not only did uf's win streak end at 31 vs uk, they were outgunned 454-222. normally i'd say the gators' d would be enough to bounce back, but that's hard to see right now. colorado state.
4. Ohio St v TCU +13.5 at JerryWorld
most of the technical trends for this one here in arlington favor the frogs. unbeaten home dogs who went bowling the previous year are 35-14 at since 1990 vs unbeaten foes who allow 14+/game. since 2000, if that home dog is off a su/ats win, they're 17-1 ats. i'd call that a money maker. furthermore, since '80 teams who are 2-0 su/ats are just 30-55 ats as road chalk in game 3's (buckeyes, alabama and arizona st are in that bucket this week). tcu is 5-1 su up the last 6 vs the big 10, 18-5 ats as +7/more dogs, 9-1-1 ats as ooc dogs of 10+. tosu is 8-1 ats as -21/less vs foes off back/back su/ats wins and has been $$ (4-0 su/ats) on the ooc road under meyer. continues under ryan day? i watched tcu beat smu 42-12 last week; it took a long td punt return, a defensive td on a fumble return, and another long pick return setting up a 12 yd td drive to make that a 2nd half blowout. at less than 2 td's i'll go w/the look test and the big scarlet/gray contingent here in the metroplex making this more bowl game environment than road game. ohio state.
5. Washington at Utah +6.5
every game is now must-win for the huskies, and the utes have been difficult the last 3 yrs (1 upset win, 2 losses by less than a td). under chris peterson uw has been an impressive 13-4 ats as chalk of 10/less, but utah lately? 6-1 ats as home dogs of 5+, 5-1 its w/pac-12 revenge, 13-1 ats the last 14 times off an ats loss, 9-2 su in 'blackout' games. plus utah has a bye next week so i expect them to physically sell out saturday night. a year ago in seattle washington needed 10 pts in the last 1:00 to eke out a 33-30 win. i think they'll need that kind of magic again to escape salt lake city. utah.
6. USC at Texas -3.5
trojan frosh qb j.t. daniels got beat up on the farm last week in a 17-3 loss to stanford... last i checked he was still iffy for this one in austin. usc is 10-21 ats on the road the last 6+ years, 0-8 as dogs of 6/less, 1-12 ats vs ooc foes w/revenge (trojans won 27-24 in ot last yr). longhorns have yet to cover a game in '18, and i think that's giving the home team some extra line value. texas.
7. Florida St at Syracuse +3
still hard to believe that samford put up 535 yds of offense (475 in the air) on the noles last week. sometimes it's good for struggling team to get away from the home fans so the carrier dome could be a respite for fsu. problem is, historically, florida state is 0-5-1 lately as acc away favorites of -20/less. meanwhile, last yr home dogs off 2 straight wins scoring 40+ were 9-2 ats; since '90 those teams are 75-29-3 ats. 'cuse has home upset wins vs virginia tech and clemson the last 2 yrs... and their qb dungey played well vs fsu in a 27-24 loss in tallahassee last yr. syracuse.
8. Boise St at Oklahoma St -2.5
important game for both teams' post-season hopes. cowboys are a sweet 26-12-2 ats as single digit home chalk, but the broncos are 5-2 ats as road dogs since '13, 34-19 ats vs ooc opponent, and have an experience edge on defense (10 returning starters) and qb (brett rypien). boise state in a mild upset.
9. Fresno St at UCLA +1
the last 2 times the bulldogs have played the bruins in pasadena, they've come out w/a win. ucla head coach chip kelly is now going with a true frosh at qb, they're 3-9-1 ats lately vs ooc foes, while fsu has a big edge in experience overall, better on special teams, and could have easily beaten minnesota on the road last week. this one means more. fresno state.
10. Alabama at OleMiss +21
i mentioned above that the tide is in a negative trend this week, as game 3 road chalk. plus the rebels have covered 3 of the last 4 in the series w/2 upset wins. last yr saban piled it on in a 66-3 drubbing. hard to see ol' miss stopping alabama's more dynamic offensive strengths, but they do have the ability to score enough points to keep it close. home dogs w/revenge off 35+ wins are 12-7 ats lately, 49-26-1 ats since '90. vs league foes, home dogs w/revenge off a win are 84-43-1 ats. don't see an upset in the offing, but 21 may be a point or two too much. mississippi.
more later...
11. BYU at Wisconsin -21.5
byu has impressed me in their win at arizona and a game they should have won at hone vs cal. uw has won but missed covering in 2 blowouts. the last 15 times a team was in that scenario as -17/more chalk, those teams are 11-4-1 ats. but w/the cougars on revenge mode for a 40-6 drubbing to the badgers last year, and their 18-3-2 ats record as road dogs w/revenge, that .5 could loom large. plus the cheeseheads have a road trip to Iowa city up next and could be looking ahead. byu.
12. GeorgiaTech at Pitt +4
both these squads had horrible finishes last week. tech lost the 4th qtr 21-7 to usf, in losing 49-38, while pitt gave up 44 unanswered pts, 37 in the 2nd half, to penn state in a 51-6 drubbing, despite not being outplayed nearly as bad as the final might indicate, rushing for 214 vs the nitts in the 1st 30 min. which is why I like the panthers here. plus the jackets are 0-6 su/ats the last 6 times they've been road favorites, while the home team is 10-4 getting points vs acc opponents. pittsburgh
13. Houston at Texas Tech +1
last yr the red raiders ended houston's 16 game home win streak. cougars are 7-0-1 ats their last 8 away from home. houston.
14. Arizona St at San Diego St +5
in '17 the aztecs came into tempe and knocked off asu. folks in the valley of the sun are likin' them some herm after the sun devils clipped msu on a last second fg. one interesting tidbit here is san diego state's def coord last yr is arizona state's dc this year. still, sd-state is 5-1-1 ats the last 7 times they've gotten points at home. asu is just 1-5 ats their last 6 games as road chalk, they have a big game w/washington up next, too. aztecs are beat up some (qb and best d-lineman out), but I think at home they can keep this close. san diego state.
15. Miami Fl at Toledo +10
for the 10 florida native on toledo's roster, this is an extra big game. a yr ago it took 2 late td's for the canes to put away the rockets. 1st time in 4 yrs they've been a home dog and miami has covered just 2 of its last 10 games overall. I wonder if that 7 lb turnover chain gets its own seat on the charter flight into the toledo airport-lol. final cfb nerd stat of the week; teams playing game 2 off a bye, who won 10+ the previous year, off allowing less than 7 pts in their opener, are 11-0 ats vs ooc opponents. toledo.
bonus stat; in their last 100 home games, oklahoma is 91-9 su. pretty impressive. I saw loss #8 2 yrs ago (thx harry) to the buckeyes. last yr, ou got revenge in columbus (harry says thx mark) 31-16, just like they have with all 8 of the teams who upset them in norman, w/the wins by an average score of 43-9. last yr Iowa state stunned the sooners 38-31 (loss #9). tomorrow oklahoma is -18 in ames for the rematch. food for thought.[/quote]
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
