Post by mscott59 on Sept 24, 2018 7:24:54 GMT -5
8-6-1. baby steps...
FRIDAY
Washington St at USC -3.5
in 23 possessions vs stanford and texas the trojans have scored 2 td's and 1 fg. desperate times in troy. which is 1 reason I like sc. another is their 12 straight pac-12 wins in the coliseum. another is their 4-1 ats record of late at home w/revenge (wsu won 30-27 last yr; cougars are 1-5 ats away vs pac-12 revenge). another is usc's 9-3 ats mark as home chalk of 8/less. I also don't think wsu can run effectively on this bunch. southern california
Florida Atl. at UCF -13.5
15 straight wins for the knights, but this week the foe is a little tougher than uconn and south carolina state. 1st game ever between these 2 as fbs opponents. after getting pummeled in their opener by the sooners, I think fau is getting some extra line value here. as owls coach, lane kiffin is 6-1 ats as +10/more dog, and they're 19-8 ats getting points on the road. florida atlantic.
SATURDAY
Texas A&M at Alabama -27
so who will finally standup up to the juggernaut in tuscaloosa? 20 straight home wins by an average 32/game. they've outgained opponents in '18 by 240+/game. ol' miss has one of the best wr units in the country and alabama suffocated the rebels' pass attack. saban is 12-0 vs ex-assistants, winning by an average of 28/game and only 1 of those being competitive (14 pt margin). the aggies did play them tough last yr, losing 27-19 in a game where total yds were pretty even. and 2 weeks ago vs an outstanding clemson defense, a&m qb kellen mond threw for 430 w/3 td's and no picks. the last 5 times a&m has been a dog of 20+, they've covered 4 of them. and in the 6 yrs they've been in the sec, they've been competitive w/the tide in all but 1 game. cfb nerd stat alert; since 1980, pre-season #1 (ap) teams are just 14-24 ats after winning/covering their previous 3 games. hard to see this group losing a game, but they are human. I think. they might not cover. texas a&m.
TCU at Texas +3
tough challenge for the frogs, taking on the horns after the big ooc game w/the bucks last week, a game in which tosu seemed to wear down tcu's o-line/d-line in the 4th qtr. tcu has won 4 straight in this series. as a head coach, tom herman is an outstanding 10-1 ats as a dog w/7 outright upsets. last week texas held usc to -5 yds rushing. tcu is better than that, but they're also just 3-10 ats as -21/less big 12 road favorites, and also 3-10 ats vs big 12 foes off a su/ats win. texas.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma St -13
so much $$ was on boise state last week, the cowboys went from home chalk to underdogs, and handled it quite nicely, thanks in large part to a normally unheralded okie state defense getting 7 qb sacks and a special teams unit blocking 2 punts. tech also surprised some folks in a 63-49 upset over houston where frosh qb alan bowman threw for 6 td's and 605 yds. he needs to produce that, because the red raiders really don't have a defense. tech is 9-4 ats as road dogs lately, and again I think there's line value here. texas tech.
NC State at Marshall +5.5
both teams are off unexpected byes due to hurricane florence cancellations. thundering herd has been money as underdogs, covering 6 straight and winning 3 of those outright, and also 10-4 ats vs acc foes. wolfpack is just 3-7 ats as favorites lately, 2-5 ats vs non-acc opponents. nc state won 37-20 in '17, but the game was even stat-wise except for 2 herd turnovers. cfb nerd state alert; unbeaten home dogs off a bye are 15-6 ats vs undefeated ooc opponents. marshall.
Florida at Tennessee +4.5
gators have won 12 of the last 13 in this series, and they bring to knoxville the #1 red zone d in the country-no opponent has yet scored from inside the uf 20. both come in off easy ooc wins. vols are just 1-4 ats lately as home dogs of less than a td. florida is 0-3 ats lately as road chalk, and their last 3 wins in this series have all been pretty dramatic. a fg decides it... tennessee.
Stanford at Oregon +2
from '02-'11, the ducks dominated this series, taking 9 of 10. but the trees have won 4 of the last 6, including last yr's 49-7 thrashing. uo is 3-0 vs the absolutely weakest sos in cfb (bowling green, portland st,, san jose st) but they are 9-2 su/ats as home dogs off a su win. oregon.
Wisconsin at Iowa +3
best of the big 10 west meet w/the winner having a key upper hand in the division race. uw off a surprising home loss to byu. both bring good numbers to the table; hawkeyes allowing just 1.5 yds/carry, the badgers averaging 285 rush yds/game on 6.1/carry). iowa is a fantastic 8-1 ats as big 10 home dogs +7/less. uw is 13-3 ats since nov '14 as road chalk. a surprising stat; since 1980 game 4 road favorites who were bowl teams the previous year, off their 1st loss of the new season, are 68-45-1 ats. wisconsin.
more later...
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +2
vandy gave the irish all they could handle in a 22-17 loss last week. bad news is they're just 3-13 su the last 16 in this series. 'dores have covered all 3 of their games so far this season, and won the stats in every contest as well. under muschamp, the 'cocks are 9-4 ats off an off week, but this is the 1st time they've been road chalk since '14. shaky nod to south carolina.
Georgia at Missouri +14
intriguing matchup here, where both have scored 40+ in their 1st 3 games. tigers are 7-1 getting pts at home when having a good season (.700+) and w/revenge. and cfb home dogs who've scored 40/more in their previous 3 games are 21-4 ats vs foes off a win. dawgs have covered their last 7 games away from the hedges but I think this one stays interesting. missouri.
Minnesota at Maryland -3
terps looked awful in a loss to temple last week, gaining just 193 total yards. gophers have played well but lost their best rb to injury and their promising frosh qb is banged up. that said (cfb nerd stat alert), home teams in game 4 off their 1st loss of the season, who gave up 35+ in the loss, are just 32-60-2 ats since '80. minnesota.
Notre Dame at Wake Forest +7.5
that same cfb nerd stat applies to the demon deacons, who suffered their 1st loss to boston college 41-34, allowing 5 td passes of 25+ yards. but wake is also 12-1 ats w/revenge the past 2 seasons. wake runs well (259/game) while the irish defend the run well (107/game). after 2 unimpressive home wins over ball state and vandy, I think nd is due to break out. notre dame.
Pitt at North Carolina +3.5
actually won some lunch $$ on pitt bouncing back last week vs ga tech. last year the heels pulled off a road upset, 34-31. unc is still dealing w/suspensions, but the panthers are not a good favorite (6-12-1 ats). carolina hasn't been any good at home lately, either, losing its last 7 to fbs foes. I wonder if in the wake of florence, the home team gets inspired. north carolina.
Michigan St. at Indiana +4.5
this is the time of year we're usually wondering how good a seemingly scrappy hoosier team really is. last year sparty held iu to 9 pts/253 total yds, and they're 5-1 ats off a road favorite loss, while iu is 0-5 su/ats the last 5 times they've been a big 10 home dog. msu has won 12 of the last 14 battles for the old brass spittoon, covering 11 of those. make it 12. michigan state.
Washington St at USC -3.5
in 23 possessions vs stanford and texas the trojans have scored 2 td's and 1 fg. desperate times in troy. which is 1 reason I like sc. another is their 12 straight pac-12 wins in the coliseum. another is their 4-1 ats record of late at home w/revenge (wsu won 30-27 last yr; cougars are 1-5 ats away vs pac-12 revenge). another is usc's 9-3 ats mark as home chalk of 8/less. I also don't think wsu can run effectively on this bunch. southern california
Florida Atl. at UCF -13.5
15 straight wins for the knights, but this week the foe is a little tougher than uconn and south carolina state. 1st game ever between these 2 as fbs opponents. after getting pummeled in their opener by the sooners, I think fau is getting some extra line value here. as owls coach, lane kiffin is 6-1 ats as +10/more dog, and they're 19-8 ats getting points on the road. florida atlantic.
SATURDAY
Texas A&M at Alabama -27
so who will finally standup up to the juggernaut in tuscaloosa? 20 straight home wins by an average 32/game. they've outgained opponents in '18 by 240+/game. ol' miss has one of the best wr units in the country and alabama suffocated the rebels' pass attack. saban is 12-0 vs ex-assistants, winning by an average of 28/game and only 1 of those being competitive (14 pt margin). the aggies did play them tough last yr, losing 27-19 in a game where total yds were pretty even. and 2 weeks ago vs an outstanding clemson defense, a&m qb kellen mond threw for 430 w/3 td's and no picks. the last 5 times a&m has been a dog of 20+, they've covered 4 of them. and in the 6 yrs they've been in the sec, they've been competitive w/the tide in all but 1 game. cfb nerd stat alert; since 1980, pre-season #1 (ap) teams are just 14-24 ats after winning/covering their previous 3 games. hard to see this group losing a game, but they are human. I think. they might not cover. texas a&m.
TCU at Texas +3
tough challenge for the frogs, taking on the horns after the big ooc game w/the bucks last week, a game in which tosu seemed to wear down tcu's o-line/d-line in the 4th qtr. tcu has won 4 straight in this series. as a head coach, tom herman is an outstanding 10-1 ats as a dog w/7 outright upsets. last week texas held usc to -5 yds rushing. tcu is better than that, but they're also just 3-10 ats as -21/less big 12 road favorites, and also 3-10 ats vs big 12 foes off a su/ats win. texas.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma St -13
so much $$ was on boise state last week, the cowboys went from home chalk to underdogs, and handled it quite nicely, thanks in large part to a normally unheralded okie state defense getting 7 qb sacks and a special teams unit blocking 2 punts. tech also surprised some folks in a 63-49 upset over houston where frosh qb alan bowman threw for 6 td's and 605 yds. he needs to produce that, because the red raiders really don't have a defense. tech is 9-4 ats as road dogs lately, and again I think there's line value here. texas tech.
NC State at Marshall +5.5
both teams are off unexpected byes due to hurricane florence cancellations. thundering herd has been money as underdogs, covering 6 straight and winning 3 of those outright, and also 10-4 ats vs acc foes. wolfpack is just 3-7 ats as favorites lately, 2-5 ats vs non-acc opponents. nc state won 37-20 in '17, but the game was even stat-wise except for 2 herd turnovers. cfb nerd state alert; unbeaten home dogs off a bye are 15-6 ats vs undefeated ooc opponents. marshall.
Florida at Tennessee +4.5
gators have won 12 of the last 13 in this series, and they bring to knoxville the #1 red zone d in the country-no opponent has yet scored from inside the uf 20. both come in off easy ooc wins. vols are just 1-4 ats lately as home dogs of less than a td. florida is 0-3 ats lately as road chalk, and their last 3 wins in this series have all been pretty dramatic. a fg decides it... tennessee.
Stanford at Oregon +2
from '02-'11, the ducks dominated this series, taking 9 of 10. but the trees have won 4 of the last 6, including last yr's 49-7 thrashing. uo is 3-0 vs the absolutely weakest sos in cfb (bowling green, portland st,, san jose st) but they are 9-2 su/ats as home dogs off a su win. oregon.
Wisconsin at Iowa +3
best of the big 10 west meet w/the winner having a key upper hand in the division race. uw off a surprising home loss to byu. both bring good numbers to the table; hawkeyes allowing just 1.5 yds/carry, the badgers averaging 285 rush yds/game on 6.1/carry). iowa is a fantastic 8-1 ats as big 10 home dogs +7/less. uw is 13-3 ats since nov '14 as road chalk. a surprising stat; since 1980 game 4 road favorites who were bowl teams the previous year, off their 1st loss of the new season, are 68-45-1 ats. wisconsin.
more later...
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +2
vandy gave the irish all they could handle in a 22-17 loss last week. bad news is they're just 3-13 su the last 16 in this series. 'dores have covered all 3 of their games so far this season, and won the stats in every contest as well. under muschamp, the 'cocks are 9-4 ats off an off week, but this is the 1st time they've been road chalk since '14. shaky nod to south carolina.
Georgia at Missouri +14
intriguing matchup here, where both have scored 40+ in their 1st 3 games. tigers are 7-1 getting pts at home when having a good season (.700+) and w/revenge. and cfb home dogs who've scored 40/more in their previous 3 games are 21-4 ats vs foes off a win. dawgs have covered their last 7 games away from the hedges but I think this one stays interesting. missouri.
Minnesota at Maryland -3
terps looked awful in a loss to temple last week, gaining just 193 total yards. gophers have played well but lost their best rb to injury and their promising frosh qb is banged up. that said (cfb nerd stat alert), home teams in game 4 off their 1st loss of the season, who gave up 35+ in the loss, are just 32-60-2 ats since '80. minnesota.
Notre Dame at Wake Forest +7.5
that same cfb nerd stat applies to the demon deacons, who suffered their 1st loss to boston college 41-34, allowing 5 td passes of 25+ yards. but wake is also 12-1 ats w/revenge the past 2 seasons. wake runs well (259/game) while the irish defend the run well (107/game). after 2 unimpressive home wins over ball state and vandy, I think nd is due to break out. notre dame.
Pitt at North Carolina +3.5
actually won some lunch $$ on pitt bouncing back last week vs ga tech. last year the heels pulled off a road upset, 34-31. unc is still dealing w/suspensions, but the panthers are not a good favorite (6-12-1 ats). carolina hasn't been any good at home lately, either, losing its last 7 to fbs foes. I wonder if in the wake of florence, the home team gets inspired. north carolina.
Michigan St. at Indiana +4.5
this is the time of year we're usually wondering how good a seemingly scrappy hoosier team really is. last year sparty held iu to 9 pts/253 total yds, and they're 5-1 ats off a road favorite loss, while iu is 0-5 su/ats the last 5 times they've been a big 10 home dog. msu has won 12 of the last 14 battles for the old brass spittoon, covering 11 of those. make it 12. michigan state.
