SCHEDULE
All games Saturday (welllllll...?
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Georgia at LSU +7
biggest test of the year to date for the dawgs, in their 1st trip to baton rouge since '09. uga is 1-6 ats the game prior to florida, but 11-3 ats as road chalk. tigers aren't home dogs often; just 6 times since '09, but they're 4-2 ats getting points in death valley. fwiw, they're also 4-0 ats lately after playing the gators, and 7-0 ats off a loss vs foes off a 10+ su win. lsu.
Washington at Oregon +3
the ducks won, both su and ats, 12 straight in this series before dropping the last 2 to the huskies by 49 and 35 pts. ouch. uw really struggled to put away ucla last week, and they are 7-6 ats lately as away favorites. uo comes in off a bye (6-0 ats as dogs w/rest), and (cfb nerd stat alert #1) home dogs w/rest and revenge, off a su win, are a pretty good bet (110-72-5 ats since '80). 2 legit pro prospect qb's in this game, i'll take the guy in green. or electric yellow. or frost. or... oh i give up. oregon.
Michigan State at Penn State -13.5
nitts have had 2 weeks to stew over tosu, and lately (0-3-1 ats) they've not been great off a home loss, even worse (0-9 ats) in home big10 games off a home loss. after a mediocre win over central mich and an unimpressive loss to n'western, i think sparty comes in desperate. they're also giving up just 34 rush yds/game so far this year. msu is 7-3 ats lately getting points on the road, and i think 13.5 is too many. michigan state.
Wisconsin at Michigan -7.5
badger run game (287 yds/game) vs um's stout defense (holding opponents 234 yds/game below their season average) is getting a lot of national play, and it should. but uw's defense has taken a step or 2 backwards from recent years, and their secondary is beat up. i think ugly hat qb shea patterson (13 td's, 4 picks) will continue his upward trend week to week. couple trends favor wisconsin, who is 9-1-1 ats in this series, while um is just 3-9 ats as chalk of 7+, 2-8 ats vs top 15 foes and have sparty on deck next week. but i like the maize and blue here. michigan.
Colorado at USC -7
so how real are the 5-0 buffalos? they've lost all 7 previous games to sc as pac-12 members by an average of 19 pts. last year the trojans won 34-23 in boulder, thanks in part to 2 blocked kicks. but cu is 7-3 ats lately as road dogs, and 7-0 ats lately on the road w/pac-12 revenge. and i like unbeaten teams getting points on the road. colorado.
Texas A&M at South Carolina +2.5
last week in a 37-35 win over mizzou, the gamecocks kept the tigers from scoring td's on 4 different trips inside the red zone. meanwhile the aggies didn't allow uk across the 50 after their 1st possession in a 20-14 to win, keeping bennie snell in check. use-e has covered 3 straight in the series but their run game isn't as good, imho, as the wildcats. w/qb jake bentley still questionable, i'll take texas a&m for the cover/win.
Missouri at Alabama -28.5
for 3 straight weeks, the poor crimson tide have suffered painful backdoor ats losses (just ask cb and al how painful the backdoor can be-
), allowing late 4th qtr td to a&m (win by 22, -27), another late td to louisiana-lafayette (win by 42, -49), and an arkansas td w/0;13 left (win by 34, -36) which i actually, quite luckily, won some lunch $$ on. missouri is better than all 3 of those teams, which means alabama will have starters in longer, thereby locking the back door. tigers have a real good offense, not much defense. i hear saban's team is decent on both sides of the ball. alabama.
Minnesota at Ohio State -29.5
odd stat of the week; the bucks are 0-8 ats the last 8 games after playing indiana. hm. but tosu is 8-3 ats as -20+ of late. gophers are 1-5-2 ats as road dogs. more importantly, minnesota is hurting on defense (315 yards rushing and 42 pts to maryland; 314 yds passing + 48 pts to iowa) as well as missing their top rb. coach pj fleck has been trying to inspire his troops w/the movie 'miracle' (ohio state = ussr? who outside the state would believe that? lol) but i don't think that will eliminate the problem of stopping haskins, nor help in that task. ohio state.
more later...
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame -21
irish have certainly hit their stride on offense w/the insertion of ian book at qb. but nd has yet to cover a double digit spread this yr, they're just 1-7 ats lately as home chalk of -7+, and 3-7 ats as home faves vs acc foes of 15+. pitt has been a +14/more dog just 3 times in the last decade; they're 3-0 ats in those games. my problem is i watched ucf absolutely carve up the panthers 2 weeks ago, but still wondering if after 3 straight easy covers kelly's kids are due for an off day. not a losing day, just an off day. pittsburgh.
Central Florida at Memphis +4.5
speaking of the knights, ucf is 5-0 su/4-0 ats so far in '18, w/18 straight wins overall. memphis has double revenge, off a regular season and aac title game losses in '17. tigers are strong on offense (547 yds/game; ucf is 574/game), not so hot on defense, while ucf qb mckenzie milton has looked consistently awesome all season. the home team has covered all 7 games between these two, and 5-0 teams giving points on the road struggle a lot. i'll take a flyer that memphis keeps this within a fg.
Iowa at Indiana +4.5
last week those conservative hawkeyes pull off a nice fake fg that turned into a td in a 48-31 win at minnesota, along w/5 qb sacks and 4 picks. as solid as the hoosiers looked for most of the game vs tosu, they are 1-5-1 ats of late getting points at home, while the hawks are an insane 13-3 ats as road chalk the last 5+ years. iu had a lot of guys go down injured vs the bucks, and iowa will reap those benefits. iowa.
Miami(FL) at Virginia +6
last yr the canes were down to uva 28-14 at half, but their d saved the bacon, forcing 4 2nd half turnovers in a 44-28 win. last week, after being down 27-7 to florida state, the u's d came thru again to spark the 28-27 comeback. the cavaliers always seem on the verge of stepping up, and catching miami after their 1st win over fsu at home in more than a decade is a good spot. but the cavs' o-line has struggled protecting the qb vs worse front lines than the one they face saturday. plus the canes are 8-2 ats lately as road favorites. i think they struggle here before pulling away. miami fl.
West Virginia at Iowa State +6.5
cyclones certainly haven't had it easy so far. road games at iowa, tcu and okla st (upset win w/a backup qb) and having oklahoma at home already this yr. now wvu comes to ames having won/covered the last 4 in this series. mountaineers pushed kansas all over the field til they got inside the 20, where 3 will grier picks and 1 fumble turned a rout into a mediocre 38-22 win. isu's d, on the other hand, has just 3 picks all season. but in the last 2+ years, the 'clones are 8-2 ats getting points at home. west virginia is also one of those 5-0 road favorites... iowa state.
Baylor at Texas -14.5
so can the longhorns handle oklahoma, the week after they beat the sooners? texas is just 2-7 ats lately as home chalk, while the bears are 10-4 as double digit big 12 road underdogs. looks like strong potential for a flat spot in austin... baylor.
Florida at Vanderbilt +7
same situation for the gators, coming off the lsu win and have the cocktail party w/georgia up next (after a bye week). uf hasn't lost in nashville since '88, and is 26-1 su the last 27 games vs vandy. the visiting team here has covered 8 of the last 10. tempted to leverage the sandwich theory here, except that the 'dores gave up 560 total yards to uga last saturday, plus they're 1-9 ats lately vs sec opponents, 0-4 ats as a home dog. florida.
Bonus games
Texas Tech at Texas Christian -7
uh, i missed this one, tho w/the red raiders 10-4 ats as road dogs and the frogs just 2-8 ats as home favorites, i think i would have leaned toward taking the points.
Duke at Georgia Tech -2
this game wasn't last night too, was it?
the last 2 weeks, tech's triple option has been poetry in motion, putting up 129 pts and rushing for 372 (vs bowling green) and 542 (vs louisville). problem this week is duke is not bgsu nor are they the cards. blue devils have covered 4 straight in the series, and 6 of 7 coming off a bye week. plus in their win over army, they held the cadets to 140 yds below their season rushing average in a 34-14 win. plus i think the wreck's pass defense is suspect. duke.
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