1. I don't think the quote is from the movie/broadway musical 'Chicago' but it sure does fit the plot...
2. I don't think I've ever seen, uh, such 'attractive' posts from this motley crew before. ever. lol
ALL GAMES - SATURDAY....(at least I hope they are)
MARYLAND (4-2) AT IOWA (5-1) -10.5
this line actually started out at iowa -13, and since walt posted the slate it's dropped to -9, so there's a lot of early $$ already riding on the terps, despite the fact that all of the hawkeyes' wins have been by 10+. this is u of i's only home game in a 6 week stretch and they play at psu next week, so look-ahead-itis is certainly a possibility. qb nate stanley has 300+ pass yds in 3 of his last 4 games. maryland has 2 good rb's (johnson, mcfarland) and their run game (245 ave) goes up against a good d (iowa gives up just 82/game rushing). hawks just 3-12 ats as big10 chalk of 8+, and just 2-9 ats after scoring 35+ in back/back games. always leary when so many people are obviously on one side, but good run games travel. maryland.
#1 ALABAMA (7-0) AT TENNESSEE (3-3) +29
no tide qb's knees have gotten this much attention since joe nameth. but tua tagovailola's injury has been the focus of vegas oddsmakers as well as tide faithful. still bizarre to see such a large line on this traditional matchup for the 3rd saturday in october. nick saban has been merciless vs ex-assistants (13-0 su, by an average of 26+ pts) so jeremy pruitt doesn't have history on his side. despite the vols getting their 1st sec win in 2 yrs last week at auburn (also ended a 15 game losing streak vs sec west opponents), they're still giving up 200+/game on the ground, they're 1-5-1 ats as home dogs of 14+, 3-9 ats in this series of late, and alabama (25-17 ats as road chalk) has a bye week before the big matchup w/lsu. tide rolls.
VIRGINIA (4-2) AT DUKE (5-1) -7.5
uva comes in off the upset over miami, while the blue devils got a road win holding down ga tech's option attack. cavs have actually taken the last 3 in this series, but the home team is 11-5-1 ats lately. virginia's d is strong but the canes' win came despite being outgained by 100+, passing for just 92 and tossing 3 picks. duke is equal on defense but stronger imho on offense, and is 18-12 ats as home favorites, tho an awful 1-9 ats of -10/less at home. a shaky nod to the dukies.
#16 NCSTATE (5-0) AT #3CLEMSON (6-0) -16.5
wolfpack is unbeaten but vs light competition (especially since their game w/wvu was cancelled in sept). this game should decide the acc atlantic. tigers have won 6 straight in the series but nc state has covered 3 of last 4 and could have easily won the last 2. they are strong on both o-line and d-line, but clemson has 4 potential nfl draft picks on their d-line and the best offensive player on the field in rb travis etienne. but the tigers are 0-3-1 ats lately off a bye week, while the visitors are 9-0 ats getting 2 td's+, and 19-2 ats off a bye vs acc foes. north carolina state.
USC (4-2) AT UTAH (4-2) -6.5
3 of the last 4 games in this series have literally gone down to the last possession or last play. if you look just at their 3 common opponents (arizona, stanford, washington st), the utes should win this game by about 17 pts. home team is 6-1 ats the last 7 games, and the trojans are a putrid 1-9 ats as road dogs of less than 10. utes' defense is pretty good too. utah.
#22 MISSISSIPPI ST. (4-2) AT #5 LSU (6-1) -6.5
might think this would be a flat spot for the tigers, off the huge uga win and alabama up next after a bye week, but last yr msu pasted them 37-7 so you'd think revenge is certainly front and center. bulldogs off a bye after beating auburn 23-7 on the plains, and they've covered the last 4 in this series. msu's defense has only allowed more than 13 points once this year. I'll roll the dice on that d to keep this one close. mississippi state.
#6 MICHIGAN (6-1) AT #24 MICHIGAN ST. (4-2) +7
a sparty team who's been impossible to figure out this yr, vs a um squad that seems to be gaining steam and confidence each week. but msu has, literally, covered 10 straight in this series, winning 8 of those 10 su. dantonio's is great up front on d (allowing 62 yds/game rushing) but harbaugh's d is giving up just 238 total yds/game, 211 below their foe's average (that's best in fbs). that said, michigan is 3-11 ats lately on the big10 road w/revenge, while sparty is 19-8-1 ats as a big10 dog, 16-4-1 ats vs teams off back/back wins. michigan state finds a way...
AUBURN (4-3) AT OLE MISS (5-2) +4
the rebels got pretty lucky last week, coming back to beat arkansas, while auburn is fuming off 2 losses, the last at home to the vols. so of course the logical next step for au is to announce gus malzahn is getting a 7 yr/$49m extension. lol. ol' miss is 0-3 ats as home dogs, and they giving up 263 on the ground/game vs sec foes. war eagle is still pretty good on defense, and malzahn is 3-0 su off back/back losses, each win by 14+. auburn.
#9 OKLAHOMA (5-1) AT TCU (3-3) +7.5
ou's had an extra week to absorb the last second loss to texas in dallas, as well as ruffin mcneil becoming the new defensive coordinator. tcu lost last week to texas tech, continuing a 3 game slide where their offense hasn't scored over 17 pts. frogs are also near the bottom of fbs in turnover margin, despite being in a double revenge spot here (lost to sooners twice last yr), they are 0-4 ats at home w/big12 revenge, while oklahoma is 6-0 ats in big12 games off a bye after a loss, 30-0 su/22-8 ats in big12 games off a loss. oklahoma.
FAU (3-3) AT MARSHALL (4-2) +3
the herd comes in off a 42-20 win at old dominion, their best game of the year. their defense is good up front, and allows just 104 yds/game, while fau is averaging 309 rushing the last 4 games. but lane kiffin's team is not good defending the pass, they're 0-4 ats on the road lately, while marshall is a good 15-9-4 ats as home dogs, a very good 33-8 su in their last 42 league home games. wrong team is favored here.... marshall.
#2 OHIO ST (7-0) AT PURDUE (3-3) +13.5
qb dwayne haskins is putting up numbers never seen before around here, but the less than stellar performance of the run game and the defense has been the talk in buckeye land (what isn't working is always the headline here) as well as nationally. the bosa-less d has allowed 457 yds/game on average the last 3, and remains injury-depleted. 1st time these two have met since '13, but the boilers are 5-2 ats in the series of late, they're 3-3 su this season w/those losses by a combined 8 pts, and since taking over at qb, david blough is hitting 68% of his passes, averaging 393/game w/10 td's and just 2 picks. plus rondale moore has been electric as a true frosh, hitting 40+ yd home runs in each game he's played, and big plays have torched tosu lately. purdue is just 3-13 ats as home dogs since '14 (bucks are 12-9 ats as road chalk, 8-1 ats as -21/less favorites vs opponents off back/back wins). finally (cfb nerd stat alert), 3-3 teams who've won 3 straight are 8-2-1 ats in game 7's since '93. the boilers are outgaining their opponents by 96 yds/game on average, yet they're nearly 2 td dogs? those numbers don't add up. tosu wins but purdue keeps the faithful here nervous all night. purdue.
#11 OREGON (5-1) AT #25 WASHINGTON ST. (5-1) PICK’EM
there will be reportedly 100,000 people descending on the wsu campus before sunrise tomorrow as espn's gameday makes its 1st ever trip to pullman. where those people are sleeping tonite (population of pullman-around 30,000; total number of hotels there-14) is a good question; the city has already declared a state of emergency, the plan being to get enough buses available to move people around. as for the game itself, the ducks may struggle to get up after its dramatic win over washington, and uo is 2-8 ats on the pac12 road lately, plus 0-8 ats vs the cougars, who is off a bye week. wsu is 5-1 ats in home games where they're not the favorite. washington state.
#25 COLORADO (5-1) AT #15 WASHINGTON (5-2) -15.5
buffs stumbled at usc last week, while the huskies are, imho, fuming after blowing that game to oregon last saturday. I think they'll take it out on cu, who they've beaten 9 straight by an average of 22 pts. uw has held 4 of its last 5 opponents to season lows in total yards. washington.
NORTH TEXAS (6-1) AT UAB (5-1) +1
since the beginning of 2017, uab is 9-0 su/8-0-1 ats at home. north texas has certainly created smiles after that fake fair catch/punt return td against arkansas a month ago. there are only 7 teams in the country who've outgained every opponent to date, and the mean green is one of them. but the blazers have revenge on their side (last second 46-43 loss last yr) and (cfb nerd stat alert) .800+ teams who've allowed 7/less in each of their last 3 games are 42-21-1 ats since 1980. alabama-birmingham.
#20 CINCINATI (6-0) AT TEMPLE (4-3) -3.5
uc comes in ranked for the 1st time in 6 yrs, while the owls have won 4 of their last 5 games this season. both teams are outstanding vs the pass on defense, but the bearcats have a rb, michael warren, who is good enough to play on sundays, leading a rush attack averaging 259/game. normally I love unbeatens getting points at this point in the season, but temple is 8-4 ats as home chalk, 5-0 ats vs foes off a bye week. temple.
