FRIDAY
#23-UTAH AT UCLA +10
how about this? after starting the season w/5 straight losses, the bruins could find themselves atop the pac12 south w/a win here. ucla barely held on to beat 'zona 31-30, while the utes scored 34 straight points after being down 14-0 to knock off usc 41-28. emotional letdown maybe? utah is 0-5 ats as pac12 road chalk of 5+, 1-7 ats as away favorites vs foes off back/back wins. i'll roll the dice on the uclans to keep it close.
SATURDAY
KANSAS ST AT #8-OKLAHOMA -23.5
sooners bounced back from the texas loss w/a drubbing of fading tcu. 1st home game in 29 days for ou, where they are 15-6 ats the last 3+ yrs. but despite their struggles this season, k-state always plays this one tough (3-1 ats in norman), they're 5-0 ats as road dogs of 15+, 11-1 ats off a bye week, 23-7 ats as road dogs overall lately. plus the visitor in this series has covered 7 of the last 9. no doubt who the better team is, but... kansas state.
#18-IOWA AT #17-PENN ST -6.5
as ihs has mentioned, the nitts still have mcsorley but they've sorely missed the talent at wr/defense who departed last yr. and now iowa comes in, able to control the los up front on both sides of the ball. the hawks are also 12-1 as +6/more dogs vs .750/better opponents, 22-10-1 ats on the road. mix in revenge (psu won on last play of game in iowa city in '17)... iowa.
#9-FLORIDA V. #7-GEORGIA -7
for the 1st time since '12, the cocktail party features both teams truly in the mix for the sec east and the national picture. both off a bye, w/uga coming off the 37-17 at lsu, while the gators have won/covered 5 straight since the uk loss, and has revenge (42-7 last yr) as added mojo. dawgs not as strong up front on either side of the ball as in '17, while uf seems to be gaining confidence weekly. one interesting tidbit i discovered on this rivalry; when just one team is off back/back wins, that team is 15-3 ats. hm. gators are also 15-4 su in this series when they have an equal/better win record. plus favorites off their 1st loss are not strong. florida.
#6-TEXAS AT OKLAHOMA ST. +3
cowboys are sagging, losing 3 of their last 4. visitor here is 8-1 su/7-1-1 ats the last decade. also for the 1st time in a decade, the 'horns end october nationally relevant and in control of its big12 future. 1st time in 3 yrs okla st is getting points at home, and the last 7 times they've played home vs an opponent w/a better record, they've won/covered all 7. that's interesting. but they can't stop the run, texas can run and the burnt orange is 7-3 ats on the road of late. texas.
#2-CLEMSON AT FLORIDA ST +17
beginning w/this week's game vs cu, the noles have 4 ranked team to face in their last 5 games. fsu is 9-4 ats as an acc dog of +3/more, 6-1 ats w/revenge (lost at clemson 31-14 last yr), while the tigers are 5-12 ats as acc road faves of -14+ vs revenge. clemson's fantastic d-line is a scary proposition vs a leaky fsu o-line that's allowed 18 qb sacks. but their d is good enough to hang around... w/some luck. that said, the last time the noles were this big a home dog (2008 vs uf, +16.5), they lost by 30. still, a frosh clemson qb at the doak, if things are close late? taking a stab at florida state staying close.
#14-WASHINGTON ST AT STANFORD -3
so apparently vegas thinks it would be an upset if the 'higher ranked' team won here.
kudos to wsu, who last week kept oregon to 1 yard of offense in the 1st 27:00 of a 34-20 win. i watched stanford beat asu last week, and going +3 on turnovers masked the cardinal getting outgained by nearly 100 yds. su is just 5-9 ats lately as home chalk, while the huskies are 16-7 ats as road dogs since '13. washington state.
#12-KENTUCKY AT MISSOURI -6.5
i lost some lunch $$ on the 'cats last week, having them at -11 in a boring 14-7 win over vandy. main culprit was a pass attack which gained just 18 yds. the uk defense continues to impress, holding foes to 106 yds below their season average. big blue is also 7-4 ats lately getting pts on the road. vs 4 non-sec opponents so far this year mizzou is averaging almost 50 pts/game; vs 3 sec foes? under half that... 24.5. the tigers have lost 3 straight in the series, and sec schools who've scored 38+ in their last game, w/triple revenge vs an sec foe, is 18-1 ats the last 19 instances. so, there's that. missouri.
#15-WASHINGTON AT CAL +11.5
huskies still control their pac12/pasadena destiny., but uw's offense has taken a couple steps backward in production over last yr (28 ppg vs 38.6). cal has been more balanced on offense and better on d, but they're just 2-7 ats in this series, 10-17 ats vs pac12 foes at home. after 3 ats losses the last 3 weeks, uw is due for a blowout win. washington.
#16-TEXAS A&M AT MISSISSIPPI ST +2.5
the last 12 times the aggies have played after a bye, they've failed to cover. that was pre-jimbo fisher; his teams off a bye have gone 11-4 su, 3-1 ats as an underdog. the bulldogs have struggled in sec games, losing 3 of 4, averaging less than 10 pts/game and scoring 7/less in 3 of those 4. msu qb nick fitzgerald has struggled w/his passing, and a&m's defense has excelled vs one-dimensional foes. texas a&m.
#19-OREGON AT ARIZONA +9.5
last week 'zona nearly stole a game at ucla, losing 31-30. still w/o qb khalil tate, they now take on oregon, off a loss at washington st. uo has won 7 of the last 9 in the series, the wildcats are 0-5 ats as pac12 home dogs of 3+. oregon.
#20-WISCONSIN AT NORTHWESTERN +6.5
in every game n'western has played so far this year, the underdog has covered (7-0 ats). the loser of this game is basically out of the big10 west race. last week the wildcats had to pick up 2 4th down conversations on a late 4th qtr drive to score/beat rutgers 19-14. uw's jonathon taylor has led a rush attack gaining 282/game, but nu's frosh isaiah bowser may be the answer to lost rb jeremy larkin. 'cats are also 6-0 ats in their last 6 games w/revenge. northwestern.
#21-SOUTH FLORIDA AT HOUSTON -7.5
only league w/2 unbeaten left in fbs is the aac, where one of the unbeatens, vegas again thinks, is not as good as the lower ranked team. lol. usf has lost 3 straight to the cougars, and they're 6-0 ats the last 6 times they've played w/league revenge. houston's offense is for real (49 ppg) but the d is suspect (30 ppg), and they're 3-9 ats as league home chalk vs good (.666+) opponents. my concern, despite my leanings toward unbeaten teams getting points on the road, is that usf's offense can't keep up, and their d isn't as good as recent years. houston.
#22-NC STATE AT SYRACUSE +2
i thought the wolfpack would make things tough for clemson last week... the tigers' pass rush destroying qb ryan finley had a lot to do w/that. meanwhile 'cuse benched starting qb eric dungey in favor of backup tommy devito in a 40-37 ot win vs unc. nc state is 8-1-1 ats as road chalk of late, while the orange is just 1-4 ats its last 5 as a 17/less home dog. as i mentioned w/georgia, unbeatens off their 1st loss don't cover a majority of their next games this time of year, but the 'pack is still, even after clemson, outgaining its foes by 112 yds/game, and keeping opponents 75 yds below their season average. north carolina state bounces back.
NAVY AT #3-NOTRE DAME -23.5
this game is in san diego. in the last 11 yrs, the navy-nd game has been played in 7 different locales... that has to be a cfb record. middies have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, but this is the worst navy team since '11, losing 4 straight this year, and qb malcolm perry is banged up. the irish come in off a bye, after nearly blowing it to pitt, scoring late to win 19-14. navy is one of the better underdogs in cfb (29-16-1 ats) and 3 td's+ is a ton to give, but i don't see brian kelly's team getting caught napping 2 straight games. notre dame.
kudos to wsu, who last week kept oregon to 1 yard of offense in the 1st 27:00 of a 34-20 win. i watched stanford beat asu last week, and going +3 on turnovers masked the cardinal getting outgained by nearly 100 yds. su is just 5-9 ats lately as home chalk, while the huskies are 16-7 ats as road dogs since '13. washington state.
