FRIDAY
OKLAHOMA (10-1) AT WEST VIRGINIA (8-2) +1.5
would anyone be surprised if these 2 combine for 1200 yds of offense? ou has won the last 4 in the series by an average of 22 pts. sooners are a solid 20-12 ats on the road in the last 7-8 yrs, 17-0 su in their last 17 big 12 away games. oklahoma.
WSATURDAY
UTAH ST. (10-1) AT BOISE ST. (9-2) -3
winner goes to the mwc title game. broncos have played well the last 2 weeks, including beating fresno st (who the winner of this game will play next week) and usu dodged a bullet when a successful colorado st hail mary which would have won the game was called off because the wr stepped out of bounds before making the catch. that said, boise state's defense has not been strong this year, the aggies offense is racking up 499 yds/game, and bsu is just 6-18-1 ats in their last 25 home games. utah state.
LTROY (9-2) AT APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2) -11
winner gets to host the sun belt title game. troy is 9-2-1 ats lately as a dog, 8-0-1 getting pts on the road. troy.
PLSU (9-2) AT TEXAS A&M (7-4) -2.5
winner gets 2nd place in the sec west, and whatever trophy comes w/that honor. lsu has won/covered all 6 games in this series of late. both defenses have been pretty good, but the tiger offense has remained one-dimensional while the aggies have been more balanced. texas a&m.
L And now,
The Rivalries.
THURSDAY
MISSISSIPPI ST (7-4) AT OLE MISS (5-6) +11
home team is 0-3 su/ats in the egg bowl of late. a year ago msu qb nick fitzgerald suffered an awful ankle injury in a 31-28 loss, so some legit revenge here. bulldogs' defense is legit, and the rebels are 0-5 ats lately as an underdog. mississippi state.
WCOLORADO ST (3-8) AT AIR FORCE (4-7) -14.5
2 teams off crushing losses. the falcons blew a 2 score lead late at wyoming while the rams's game winning td vs utah state was reversed. disappointing years for both... but the academies have a tendency to not give up any season. csu is just 2-7 ats as dogs of 12+, the flyboys have won/covered 4 straight home finales. air force.
LFRIDAY
WASHINGTON (8-3) AT WASHINGTON ST (10-1) -3
I watched the entire 1st half of wsu/arizona, and I came away more than impressed. and I don't expect a letdown in the apple cup vs a uw team who's won 8 of the last 9 in the series. that said, the huskies haven't covered a game since september, but the winner here still goes to the pac 12 title game. the cougars are 1-7 ats as favorites vs uw of late, 0-5 ats at home in the series. washington.
WOREGON (7-4) AT OREGON ST (2-9) +16.5
disappointing year for the ducks, but they've dominated the civil war winning 9 of the last 10. plus the visitor has covered 9 of the last 12 here. beavers are 3-10 ats as home dogs of 10+, while uo is 8-3 ats as road chalk of 11+. oregon.
WVIRGINIA (7-4) AT VIRGINIA TECH (4-6) +4
the gobblers have won 14 straight in this series for the commonwealth cup (10-4 ats). but tech has fallen apart this year w/injuries and defensive lapses. uva is the better team on defense, maybe for the 1st time ever in this rivalry, but a team whose won 14 straight is now getting points? hokies keep their bowl hopes alive... virginia tech.
WSATURDAY
FLORIDA (8-3) AT FLORIDA ST. (5-6) +5
noles have won 7 of the last 8 in this series, but find themselves getting points vs a uf team who's bounced back from a bad 2017 and could certainly gain a new year's 6 bowl bid w/a win. fsu is 1-5 as a home dog lately, but the gators are just 1-4 ats as ooc road favorites. I think florida state keeps this close.
LPURDUE (5-6) AT INDIANA (5-6) +4
2nd yr in a row that the winner of the old oaken bucket goes bowling and the loser stays home. in '17 it was purdue, but the boilers have struggled since knocked off tosu, and coach jeff brohm likely headed to louisville? indiana gets revenge.
LCENTRAL FLORIDA (10-0) AT SOUTH FLORIDA (7-4) +14
last week I was dead wrong thinking ucf would struggle vs cincinnati. they've yet to show any late season unbeaten pressure, while usf has dropped 4 straight after winning their 1st 7 games of the season, and the bulls are giving up 232 yds/game rushing. but, they've covered 7 of the last 9 in this series, and 6-1 ats playing w/aac revenge. couple other trends I like; charlie strong is 11-2 ats as a head coach when getting 10+ points, and unbeaten favorites of 17/less in season finales are just 18-36 ats if they're playing good (.600+) opponents. rolling the dice that south florida hangs around thru the end.
LWAKE FOREST (5-6) AT DUKE (7-4) -12.5
a year ago, duke needed a win over wake forest to become bowl eligible, and got it. now the roles are reversed; blue devils are 0-9 ats as home chalk, while the demon deacons are 11-4 ats as rod dogs. wake struggles stopping the pass, the dukies struggle stopping the run. it adds up to wake forest.
WBYU (6-5) AT UTAH (8-3) -13.5
one of the better lesser known rivalries is what they call the holy war out west. utes have won 7 straight in the series (5-2 ats), but the last 5 games have all been decided by less than a td. utah has already clinched a spot in the pac 12 title game, which I think gives byu an extra emotional edge. the cougars have also out-statted their last 5 opponents, and they're also 21-3-1 ats as road dogs w/revenge of late. brigham young.
WAUBURN (7-4) AT ALABAMA (11-0) -24.5
so, in this year's iron bowl, can auburn put up more points on the tide than the citadel did last week? home team in this series has won/covered 5 of the last 6. alabama has revenge on their side after losing 26-14 a yr ago, and war eagle gave up an average of 252 yds rushing to a&m/uga. but, the last 4 times the tide has entered the iron bowl unbeaten, the tigers have covered all 4. saban is just 1-3 ats the last 4 times they've played w/revenge vs an sec foe. I have no doubt they wouldn't hesitate to stomp the boys from the plains, but with the sec title game up next, I wonder if the tigers' want to might give them a back door cover. plus I need to make up ground so... auburn.
LMINNESOTA (5-6) AT WISCONSIN (7-4) -10
up until 1948 these 2 played for 'a slab of bacon'. since '48, the game is for paul bunyon's axe, which is presumably used to chop up bacon for the winners, which in the last 14 years has always been wisconsin. the badgers came from behind to knock off purdue in 3 ot's last week, while the gophers' 3 turnovers doomed them in a 24-14 loss to n'western snd are just 1-7-2 ats of late on the big 10 road. but uw has covered just 3 of the last 10 in this series, and the mojo is with the team, I think, who needs a win to get bowl eligible. minnesota.
WARIZONA ST. (6-5) AT ARIZONA (5-6) +1.5
home team has won the last 5 games for the territorial cup, 'zonz is 5-1 ats w/revenge in this series, and they need a win to get bowl eligible. arizona.
WSOUTH CAROLINA (6-4) AT CLEMSON (11-0) -26
home team is 8-3 ats in this series, and every statistical edge is with clemson. but the gamecocks are 10-3 ats as underdogs of late, 11-3 ats getting 17+, and w/the tigers having the acc title game on deck, I'm hoping 26 is a couple points too many. south carolina.
WNOTRE DAME (11-0) AT USC (5-6) +10.5
was anyone else surprised that this number isn't higher in favor of the irish? I thought they'd be at least a 2 td favorite. nd looked impressive vs syracuse, but in part that happened imho because the orange lost their starting qb in the 1st qtr. home team has won/covered 5 straight in the series and the trojans have revenge from a stomping in south bend (49-14) last yr. the last 6 times usc has been a home dog with a losing record, they've covered all 6. and when an unbeaten team in game 11+ is off 2 straight su/ats wins, the last by 30/more, they are just 2-15 ats vs an opponent with revenge. southern cal.
WKENTUCKY (8-3) AT LOUIVILLE (2-9) +17
what a difference a year makes. last time these 2 played, the cardinals were 4 td favorites. now they're searching for a new coach, and uk is looking for revenge. home team has covered just 1 of the last 11 in the series, and even though the 'cats have not covered the last 12 times they've been chalk... louisville is just looking to end the season. kentucky.
WGEORGIA TECH (7-4) AT GEORGIA (10-1) -17
tough spot for the dawgs here, with alabama on deck but option-strong rival yellow jackets still to face. in their last 3 games, uga has rushed for 1066 yards; in their last 4 games, tech has rushed for 1426. visitor has covered 5 straight in this series, and georgia is 0-4 ats as ooc chalk of 3+. georgia tech.
LMICHIGAN (10-1) AT OHIO ST. (10-1) +4
the national pundit buzzards have been circling ohio stadium all week, waiting to peck at the expected buckeye carcus. u
m has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series, but all as an underdog. they're 1-13 su the last 14 games vs tosu. wolverines are 5-0 ats lately w/big 10 revenge and held wisconsin, penn st and sparty to an average 188 total yds. impressive. but the numbers for meyer when he's getting points are eye-popping; 18-6 ats. he's 8-3 su/10-1 ats as a dog facing .800+ opponents. since '82, the bucks are 11-5 ats as home dogs, unbeaten (8-0 ats) when getting 2.5/more. I think there's more pressure on the ugly hats here, and the home team is due. way overdue. the ohio state university.
WTENNESSEE (5-6) AT VANDERBILT (5-6) -3.5
yet another matchup where the winner goes bowling and the loser stays home. vandy has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series, including a 42-24 win in knoxville in '17. but, the vols have covered all 3 sec road games this year, their defense remains decent vs the run, and the 'dores have allowed 235/game on the ground vs sec foes. tennessee.
LNORTH CAROLINA ST (7-3) AT NORTH CAROLINA (2-8) +6.5
in the last 20 games of this series, not only has the underdog covered 15 of them, the dog has won 13 games outright. heels are 9-3 ats getting 6+, and a win here could save unc coach Larry fedora's job. wolfpack have sagged after a 5-0 start.... north carolina.
WILLINOIS (4-7) AT NORTHWESTERN (7-4) -18
one team is headed for the big 10 title game. the other is licking its wounds after a 63-0 drilling from iowa. the 'cats have won/covered the last 3 for the land of lincoln trophy, but they've yet to cover a game this season as a favorite, and haven't won a game by more than 14 points. the illini actually run the ball well (252/game) and n'western has no reason to reveal too much to next week's opponent. illinois.
. W
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
