FRIDAY
PAC12CG.........UTAH v WASHINGTON -5
earlier this yr uw traveled to salt lake and knocked off the utes 21-7, holding them to season lows in points and total yards. now utah will play missing their starting qb and best rb. btw, that 21-7 win was the only game all season the huskies covered as a favorite. washington will have a 4 yr starter at qb, but utah is 4-1 ats w/pac 12 revenge. uw is just 3-7 ats as chalk off a dog win (beat washington st last week). I'll take the points. utah.
MACCG...........NORTHERN ILLINOIS v BUFFALO -3.5
I'd wager that niu had the most challenging ooc schedule in the country this year. it resulted in losses to iowa, utah and florida state. but the huskies righted the ship, and now appear in their 7th mac title game in the last 9 seasons, despite ending the season w/2 losses. the buffs make their 1st ccg appearance in a decade and their best season (10-2) since becoming d-1. the favorite is just 3-7 ats in mac title games of late. buffs have the better offense, huskies the stronger defense, and since '11 they are 7-2-1 ats getting points vs mac opponents. northern illinois.
SATURDAY
B12CG...........TEXAS v OKLAHOMA -7.5
I read where this is the 1st time these 2 have played twice in a season since oklahoma was a territory in the 1890s. 9th big 12 ccg for ou, 6th for the horns. sooners are 7-1 su/ats in those 8 title games, texas 1-3 su/0-4 ats. but texas is 6-0 ats vs the sooners of late, 6-1 ats as dogs of 10/less, and as a head coach, tom herman is 9-4 su/12-1 ats as an underdog, 7-0 ats when getting more than a td. sooners are just 3-10 ats w/revenge in this series, and as electric murray is leading their offense, it's tough to give that many points w/a defense allowing 32 pts and 449 yds a game. this one goes down to the final possession... texas.
SECCG...........GEORGIA v ALABAMA -13.5
great rematch in atlanta of last year's cfb playoff finale. 12th sec title appearance for the tide (7-4 su, 6-5 ats), the 7th for the dawgs (3-3 su, 4-2 ats). as dominating as alabama's season has been, I think last year's game proved that georgia won't be walking into this game intimidated. uga is 6-1 ats w/sec revenge, they've covered the last 6 games getting points vs the tide, and are 7-2 ats as sec underdogs lately. an alabama win by 21+ would be 13 straight, an ncaa all-time record. and saban is 7-1 ats when facing top level sec (.850+) competition. tagovailova is a load to defend, but I think 2 td's is 1 too many to give in this one. georgia.
MWCG............FRESNO ST AT BOISE ST. -2.5
so how many teams have played each other 4 times in the last 2 years? bulldogs/broncos part quatro happens saturday. bsu won the mwc title last year, and came back from a 17-3 deficit to beat fresno 24-17 this yr. both are solid on defense, but boise is better on offense. that said, on the blue turf boise is just 6-16-1 ats as chalk... amazing considering how successful they've been. fsu is 4-1 as road dogs the last 2 yrs, 14-5 ats overall getting points since '17. fresno st.
ACCCG...........CLEMSON v PITT +26.5
wow. a ccg w/a 4 td spread. forecast is calling for lots of rain in charlotte saturday, which could even the playing field a little. 1st acc title game appearance for pitt, the 6th for clemson (4-1 su), whose defense showed some holes in the secondary to the tune of 510 yds vs s carolina. good thing for the tigers is that the panthers have thrown for 200+ in a game just once (I think) all season. they do run the ball real well (261/game, 6.3/carry). clemson stops the run even better (allows 85/game, 2.2/attempt). still, cu is just 2-10 ats as -20/more acc chalk, while pitt is 5-0 ats getting 15+, and 7-3 ats off a su loss of 21/more (lost 24-3 to miami last week). combine those trends, w/the expected weather, w/the tigers having their eyes on a larger prize... pittsburgh.
ACCG............MEMPHIS AT CENTRAL FLORIDA -3
cruel fate for ucf, losing their star qb to that nasty leg injury last week. 2nd straight title game between these two, and memphis has hung with the knights (62-55 loss in '17, 31-30 loss earlier this year). the home team has covered the last 8 between these two, but the last 8 times an undefeated league champ has played a ccg off a 10+ ats win, they've gone just 1-7 ats. the tigers are also 7-2 ats w/league revenge. ucf's backup qb looked to be a good runner, but not nearly as dynamic throwing the ball as milton. after losing 12 straight to the knights, I think 2 streaks end here. memphis.
B10CG...........NORTHWESTERN v OHIO ST. -14
so can a n'western team who's allowed 500 more yards than they've gained this year, and lost to akron (thanks to 2 pick-6's and a fumble recovered in the end zone for a td) really give the bucks a game? I say, absolutely. the 'cats are the least penalized team in cfb, which makes up for a lot of the yardage differential. qb clayton thorson is a true nfl prospect starting his 51st game, and true frosh rb isaiah bowser stepped in mid-season and has averaged 122/game. in the last 3 yrs, nw is 13-2-1 ats as a dog w/10 outright upsets. 2 yrs ago they came into the 'shoe and gave tosu fits in a 26-20 loss. there's pressure on here for a rout, and coming off a near perfect win over um, it's tough to duplicate. it might surprise a lot of people that tosu's pass d efficiency (according to 1 vegas rating system I read) is actually #37, which is fair. the problem is, that's the worst rating since meyer's been there. he's also just 17-27 ats as big 10 chalk of 10+. I'll take the points here. northwestern.
CUSACG..........UABIRMINGHAM AT MIDDLE TENN. ST. -2.5
a week ago uab had just 89 total yards in a 27-3 loss to mtsu. I watched a lot of the blue raiders' game at uk a couple weeks ago, and came away impressed in a 36-23 loss. the blazers are 8-4 ats as dogs, they expect to get 3 o-linemen and their starting rb back in the lineup who were out last week, too. alabama-birmingham.
SBCCG...........LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AT APPALACHIA ST. -17.5
1st ever sun belt ccg. the last 5 times these 2 have played, app state has won by a combined 177-54. but earlier this year, the final score was just 27-17. 2 good run offenses, but asu has had the better defense. that said, the mountaineers are just 8-14-2 ats as home favorites, while the cajuns are 4-0-1 ats as road dogs this year, 28-16-1 ats the last 8 years. louisiana.
FINALLY, THE LEFTOVER FROM RIVALRY-VILLE
BIG-GAME........STANFORD AT CAL +2.5
they've met every year since '46. the 121st edition of the big game. boys from the farm have won 8 straight in the series (6-2 ats) but cal has the stronger defense (allowing just 319/game) and the bears are 6-2 ats w/pac 12 revenge. california.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
