WEEK 18 - BOWL ROUND 3THURSDAY 12/27 WOI BOWL AT SHREVEPORT, LA
(7-5)
DUKE VS (8-4)TEMPLE -3.5
blue devils 9-2 ats in bowls under cutliffe, and are getting some extra points from that 56-7 drubbing to wake forest at season's end. temple's d is good (scored 7 td's) but their head coach is off to georgia tech, and interim bowl coaches for teams off a win in their finale are just 13-23-1 ats.
winNEP BOWL – AT NEW YORK CITY
(7-6) MIAMI (FL) VS (7-5)
WISCONSIN +3
2 teams w/great expectations entering the season. badgers' d was disappointing, as was the canes' offense. uw qb hornibrook is out w/concussion symptoms, and miami is switching qb's again to find a spark. rematch of '18 orange bowl won by wisconsin 34-24. the u is just 2-8 su/ats in bowls of late (0-5 ats as chalk) and has the much better defense, but this game is in yankee stadium, not south florida.
win ASOT BOWL – AT HOUSTON, TX
(6-6) VANDERBILT VS (6-6)
BAYLOR +4
vandy won 3 of their last 4 to get bowl eligible, while the bears bounced back from a 1-11 2017. 'dores are better at qb w/shumur and an Illini transfer (ka'shawn vaughn) at rb, but I think giving 4 points is one too many.
winFRIDAY 12/28FAMMC BOWL AT NASHVILLE, TN
(7-5) AUBURN VS (6-6)
PURDUE +3.5
1st ever meeting between these 2. auburn has the overall talent edge but I wonder if the boilers are more excited to be here. plus 5 of pu's 6 losses came by a total of 21 points. jeff brohm is 4-0 su/3-1 ats in bowls as a coach, and the tigers were outgained by 123 yds/game vs bowling foes this year.
lossCW BOWL – AT ORLANDO, FL
(9-3)
SYRACUSE VS (8-3) WEST VIRGINIA +1
wvu was -6 here before qb will grier decided to sit this out. 'cuse has the offense to match the 'eers in this scenario. plus the orange is 12-3-1 su/12-4 ats as bowlers since '81, while west virginia is just 7-17 su/5-19 ats in the post season since '87. and with this being syracuse's 1st bowl in 5 years, while the mountaineers had the playoffs in their sights before back/back losses to okie state/oklahoma...
winALAMO BOWL – AT SAN ANTONIO, TX
(8-4) #24
IOWA STATE VS (10-2) #13 WASHINGTON STATE -3
again, one team here is excited, and one has to be disappointed. cougars were a step away from a pac 12 title game/rose bowl before losing at home when washington corralled their #1 (380 yds/game) pass attack. counting cal's loss to tcu last night, the pac 12 is now 4-13 su/2-15 ats in bowls the last 3 years, 1-9 ats as bowl chalk off a loss. + coach mike leach is 1-7 ats in his last 8 bowl games. isu meanwhile started 1-3 then won 7 of its last 8, including one over wvu, coach matt campbell is 4-3 su of late vs top 25 foes, 3-1 su/ats in bowls, and 15-6 ats as a dog vs .750+ opponents. plus they've seen their share of high flying passing offenses in the big 12. mix in a better than expected wsu defense, you have a lower than expected score to boot.
winSATURDAY 12/29ARIZONA BOWL – AT TUCSON, AZ
(8-4) ARKANSAS STATE VS (7-5)
NEVADA +1.5
asu's red wolves vs nevada's wolfpack. nevada's much improved pass d vs asu qb justin hansen (3172 yds, 27 td/6 int) is a nice matchup. arkansas state is just 1-7 su/ats the last couple years vs bowl-eligible foes, and has allowed 158 pts in its last 4 bowl games. and the dog in nevada's last 11 bowl games is 9-1-1 ats.
win PEACH BOWL – AT ATLANTA, GA
(9-3) #10
FLORIDA VS (10-2)#7 MICHIGAN -6.5
um has owned uf (4-0 su all-time) but for the 6th time in the last 7 years, enters a bowl off a loss to tosu, this one likely denying the ugly hats a playoff spot. they were also the only big 10 team to lose a bowl game last year. and 3 of their top players are sitting out the game. not exactly great karma. but even after allowing 567 yds in columbus, um remains the #1 in the country, and shea patterson was a huge upgrade at qb. the gators finally found some offense (3-0 w/500+ yds in each game) to end the season, and their defense is pretty good too, especially up front. sec is 7-2 su/8-1 ats in its last 9 bowls vs big 10, and uf is 8-3 su/ats in its last 11 bowl games. um should win, but I like the points.
winB BOWL – CHARLOTTE, NC
(7-5)
SOUTH CAROLINA VS (7-5) VIRGINIA +5.5
3 yrs ago will muschamp inherited a 3-9 team in columbia. this will be his 3rd straight bowl game. qb jake bentley threw for 17 td's in his last 6 games (5 vs clemson) but will be missing his best wr. at uva bronco mendenhall also inherited a mess but is bowling for a 2nd straight year but is 0-4 su/ats in the postseason of late. both team run the ball well. gamecocks in a low scoring affair.
lossORANGE BOWL – AT MIAMI, FL
(12-1) #4
OKLAHOMA VS (13-0) #1 ALABAMA -14
both teams have wildly productive offenses. only 1 enters proven on the defensive side. favorites of 8+ in the cfb playoff semis so far are 3-0 su/ats, winning by an aggregate 161-27. here's another sobering stat; since '80, the heisman winner's team is 0-7 su/ats if that team is a bowl underdog. but... big 12 bowl dogs of 10+ are 8-1 ats of late, and the tide has had its issues w/mobile qb's. the sooners will put up their points, but whether its tua or hurts running the show, I don't see them stopping alabama enough to win. cover? yes.
win COTTON BOWL
(12-0) #3
NOTRE DAME VS (13-0) #2 CLEMSON -13
the irish have reminded me a little bit of the '02 tosu national champs, who won a lot of games ugly but won 14 straight w/o a loss. both teams made midseason changes at qb that worked out very well. undefeated bowl dogs of 7+ (like tosu vs miami in '03) are 12-4-1 ats of late. cu's trevor lawrence vs nd''s excellent pass d, the tigers' outstanding run d vs irish rb dexter williams (6.6/carry) will be fun to watch. I think this one goes down to the wire.
lossMONDAY 12/31M BOWL – AT ANNAPOLIS, MD
(6-6)
VIRGINIA TECH VS (10-2) CINCINNATI -6.5
tech had just 12 starters returning from a 9-4 '17 season, uc had the same number back from a 4-8 year. safe to say the bearcats were one of '18's impressive surprises. while the hokies were the opposite, especially after losing to old dominion in week 2 and having to win a hastily scheduled game vs marshall to become bowl eligible. I'm a fan of uc rb michael warren, and obviously coach luke fickell. the hokies lost both starting de's over the course of the season, and allowed 282/game rushing in their last 7 games. ouch. huge edge on d to uc, but (cfb stat alert) bowl favorites who scored 56+ in their previous game are just 17-32 ats... tough to match after a month off. too many points... in its 26th straight bowl tech avoids 1st losing season since '92.
winSUN BOWL – AT EL PASO, TX
(7-6)
PITTSBURGH VS (8-4) STANFORD -5.5
pitt comes in off back/back blowouts to miami/clemson, while the trees' season was strange, 4 wins, then 1-4, then 3 wins. stanford struggled to run the ball w/bryce love's ankle injuries and an o-line who underperformed, but their pass game behind k.j. costello was impressive. the panthers featured 2 1000 yard rushers (ollison, hall) but passing could be a problem if they fall behind. w/washington state's win/non-cover last night, the pac 12 is now 5-13 su/2-16 ats in bowls the last 3 years, and pac 12 bowl chalk are 3-12 ats vs opponents off back/back losses (while pitt is 7-1 su/6-2 ats off 2 losses).
winR BOWL – SANTA CLARA, CA
(7-5)
MICHIGAN STATE VS (8-4) OREGON -2.5
in sparty you have the best rush d in the country (81/game allowed), but an offense that only put up 2 td's in its last 3 games. de kenny willekes is skipping the game tho (big 10 d-lineman of the year) so that will hurt. the ducks are better in every category on offense, w/top nfl qb prospect justin herbert leading the way. but uo has gone 0-3 su/ats in bowls of late. combine the above stat for the pac 12 with this nugget; including this year, big 10 bowl dogs are 20-9 ats, and 10-0 ats in bowls off a win vs pac 12 foes.
win LIBERTY BOWL – MEMPHIS, TN
(8-4)
MISSOURI VS (6-6) OKLAHOMA STATE +8
maybe the most unheralded nfl pro prospect at qb, mizzou's drew lock will end his college career w/3 straight 3000+ yard seasons (92 td's). impressive. vs a mediocre cowboy defense you'd think the tigers will be able to move the ball at will. osu had to replace all their '17 offensive firepower and did just fine w/qb taylor cornelius (3600 pass yds) and wr tylon wallace (1408 yds). not a fan of giving more than a td in bowl games, but tough to see any area where missouri doesn't have a distinct edge...
lossHOLIDAY BOWL – AT SAN DIEGO, CA
(8-5) #22
NORTHWESTERN VS (9-4) #17 UTAH -7
no better coach in the post season than utah's kyle whittingham (11-1 su/9-3 ats), and if the utes' tyler huntley returns at qb off a broken collarbone vs a porous n'western pass d, combined w/utah's stellar run defense, this could get ugly quick. that said, the cats have a nice qb in clayton thorson, they won vs physical teams on the road this year (wisconsin, iowa) and played both notre dame and tosu tough. northwestern is a money-making 22-10-1 ats as underdogs of late, and-get this-the dog in the wildcats' games this year went 11-1-1 ats.
win GATOR BOWL – AT JACKSONVILLE, FL
(9-3) NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS (8-4) #19
TEXAS A&M -7
the wolf pack's ryan finley will be the best qb on the field, but to my eyes the aggies are the better team in every other category. plus 6 of nc state's 9 wins came over non-bowl qualifying opponents, not to mention their top wr and best lb are skipping the game. the wolfpack has been real good in bowls (8-3 su/9-2 ats) but texas a&m faced the toughest schedule in the nation and it will bear fruit imho here.
win 
