couple thoughts before the picks...
1. if i hear one more espn anchor/pundit lecture me on tv/radio about why i should be thankful and/or not bored that alabama and clemson are playing tonite, i think i will vomit. not because i'm jealous, or envious, or bitter, or think either doesn't deserve to be there; i just can't stand hearing the same talking points ad infinitum ala fox news pundits over the course of days. i'll watch because i'm a cfb fan and i'm interested to see who wins.
2. the powers that be (cfb playoff committee/espn) laid a goose egg the size of a vermont volleyball (anyone get that movie quote?) picking santa clara as this year's title game site. don't know whether they thought the game has more national prestige/cache than it does, and would draw cfb fans regardless of how expensive it is to get to/stay in the bay area, or it would suddenly turn an obvious pro city into fanville usa... hell the pac 12 title game has never come close to selling out, and that involves 2 schools much more local than any potential successful program which could have made this year's playoffs. not to mention the average temps there this time of year are in the 50s, and that's during the daylight hours.
3. with the publicity that tickets are pretty cheap for the game tonite, i wonder a. what the actual attendance will end up being, and b. whether espn cameras show much of the stands during the game.
THE PICKS
1. THE GAME SCORE --
ALABAMA -5
CLEMSON
saban is 11-4 su/8-6 ats in bowls w/the tide, while swinney is 8-4 su/9-3 ats, fwiw. tagovailoa is a big edge at qb, if, a big if, his knee is healthy, over clemson's lawrence, who didn't face as tough a slate of defenses til notre dame, where he did play/throw well. both offenses have been extremely good, averaging 530/game. tigers i think have a bit of an emotional edge, after getting spanked 24-6 in last year's playoff semi. dabo is 18-6 su/15-9 ats vs undefeated opponents, 7-1 ats when getting points in that scenario. the tide's defense has looked a little more mortal in its last 2 games vs uga/oklahoma, while the tigers gave up huge numbers vs the 2 sec teams they faced this year (a&m, gamecocks). as a head coach, saban is just 4-8 ats as bowl chalk of 6+. and the favorite in the cfb playoff final has yet to cover (0-4 ats). i'll lean with that trend. clemson +5
2. HALFTIME SCORE --
ALABAMA -3
CLEMSON
hard to see here, but alabama has been so strong in the first half in most games, tough to go against them. alabama -3
3. TOTAL POINTS, OVER/UNDER --
58.5 POINTS
in the 2 previous title game matchups between these 2, the total points scored were 85 and 66. and these two offenses are better than those in the previous finals. plus both teams will have a key defender sidelined up front, and both secondaries have shown vulnerability vs good passing attacks. over 58.5, especially since i think this game goes to ot.
4. TOTAL POINTS - HALFTIME, OVER/UNDER --
30 POINTS
with wet conditions, maybe some tightness w/nerves in the 1st half, might take a while for both teams to get rolling. under 30
5. WHO WILL FINISH WITH THE MOST TOTAL YARDS? --
alabama
6. WHO WILL BE THE FIRST TEAM TO SCORE? --
alabama
7. WHO WILL BE THE LAST TEAM TO SCORE? --
clemson
8. LONGEST SCORING PLAY IN YARDS, (OVER/UNDER) --
52.5 YARDS
hoping there won't be a big explosion play on defense/special teams... under 52.5
9. WHICH TEAM WILL MAKE THE MOST FIRST DOWNS? --
alabama
10. WHICH TEAM WILL WIN THE PRE-GAME COIN FLIP? --
clemson
