hey guys. hope the summer's been a good one and you don't mind an old douche trying to become the new, uh, old douche.
WEEK ZERO8/24 FLORIDA -7.5 VS MIAMI (FLA) AT ORLANDO
pretty attractive lid lifter to the '19 season. thought franks made a nice step up last year at qb for uf, and I expect him to contribute more effectively w/his legs this year, but his inexperienced o-line will be going up against what I think is a talented cane front 7. combine that with a new miami qb and that spells low scoring game to me. the 7.5 imho means vegas is looking for more folks to pick miami. I think diaz as a new head coach and the feeling that uf has avoided renewing this series in the past gives the underdog an emotional edge. plus um is 6-1 ats in the series. gators win, but the u keeps it close.
univ of miami W8/24 ARIZONA -11 AT HAWAII
after being saddled w/injuries most of '18, wildcat qb khalil tate is reportedly healthy and ready to return to his 2017 level performance. that spells trouble for hawaii, who's never been stellar defensively. but... on offense, the rainbows have a pretty good qb in mcdonald and 2 strong wr's. they jumped from 3 wins to 8 last year, and have 18 starters returning. plus the trends all lean to the islanders; 'zona is 4-12 ats vs ooc opponents lately, just 5-12 ats as road chalk of -7+. uh is 5-0 ats as home dogs vs pac 12 foes, 7-0 ats in home openers. even though this is game 1 I expect lots of offense here, last team with the ball wins.
hawaii W (tho the last team w/the ball ended up at the 1 yd line)WEEK 1 8/29 UTAH AT BYU +5
cougars have struggled overall (2-5 ats) and in provo lately (0-4 ats) vs their arch rivals from sahl-tahlay-kahsehti. 5th straight time the utes have been favored in this matchup where they've won 8 in a row. also the 1st time ever the holy war has been a season opener. some see utah as a sleeper pick in the pac-12, but they are replacing their 4 best defenders and 2 award-winning kickers, while byu returns 17 starters. last yr the utes came back from 20-0 down to win 35-27 in a game byu dominated most of... plus the favorite here is just 7-18 ats the last 25 games. cougs are also 5-1 ats in game 1's as a home dog.
byu L utes cover thanks to not 1 but 2 pick-6's. yeah, I gave back some of last week's winnings on this one. lol8/29 UCLA AT CINCINNATI -3
last yr uc went out west and surprised the bruins 26-17 on their way to a strong 11-2 season. now they host ucla in one of the higher profile games ever at tiny nippert stadium. ucla ended up 3-9 in '18, first time in half a century for back/back losing seasons in westwood, but returns 19 starters off that young squad in chip kelly's 2nd yr there. like ucla's young qb, dorian thompson-robinson, too. for the home team, coach luke fickell is just 1-9 ats as a single digit chalk, and they may be looking ahead to next week's trip up I-71 to the 'shoe.
ucla L uc looked impressive, but benefitted from a questionable call/whistle on what should have been a fumble/td return for ucla late. plus the bruins qb fumbles twice without being hit? last night's games are front & center proof why they call it gambling. 
8/30 COLORADO -12.5 VS COLORADO STATE AT DENVER
91st rocky mountain showdown features 2 new head coaches. last yr cu started 5-0 and ended 5-7; they have a new offensive scheme. csu has to replace 15 starters from a season where they missed bowling for the 1st time since '12. buffs have better talent, but after losing 4 straight in the series and being 5-1 ats as double digit ooc dogs, I'll take a chance.
colorado state8/30 WISCONSIN AT SOUTH FLORIDA +13.5
uw opens on the road for the 1st time in nearly a decade, w/a new qb and 4 new o-line starters. they do still have jonathon taylor, one of the nation's best rb's. bulls started '18 7-0, ended up 7-6. usf wasn't exactly stout defending the run last yr either (273/game) but they do have experience/talent returning at qb, rb & wr. that said, usf is just 9-14-1 ats as home dogs, while the stinkin' badgers are a nice 8-2 ats as ooc road chalk of 17/less, but only 3-6 ats in august games. add in august in tampa? I'm on
usf to keep it a little interesting.
8/30 UTAH ST. AT WAKE FOREST -3
demon deacons enter '19 with momentum, after 4 su wins as outright underdogs last yr including a bowl victory. usu sparkled, going 11-2, but are replacing 9 starters on offense. I'll go w/the more experienced home team.
wake forest8/30 OKLAHOMA STATE AT OREGON STATE -15.5
harry stole my planned 'battle of the other osu' line.
. beavers return 16 starters, but they went 2-10 last yr. cowboys have to replace a qb and a top draft pick rb, but mike gunny's had 3 straight years w/a new qb and their offense hasn't missed a beat. okie state is 6-4 as -10+ road chalk, the hosts just 7-15 getting points in corvallis.
oklahoma state8/31 AUBURN -3 VS OREGON AT JERRY WORLD
1st mtg since 2010 bcs title game. uo is the most experience team in d-1, returning 17 starters, including all 5 o-linemen. they'll face 1 of, if not the best, d-lines in cfb for war eagle. matter of fact, these teams match up pretty evenly everywhere except qb. auburn will start a true frosh, bo nix, while justin hebert would have been a 1st rd nfl draft pick had he not decided to return to eugene. add that edge to the ducks' outstanding ats record as an ooc dog (13-1-1) and vs the sec lately (4-1 ats the last 5). give me the team w/the better qb getting points.
oregon8/31 SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 VS NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE
4th matchup in 7 years for these 2, w/usc-east winning all 3 (2-1 ats). mack brown inherits a unc team that allowed 35 pts/game in '18 and is 0-11 su/4-7 ats in openers vs power 5 foes. that should whet the appetite of gamecock qb jake bentley, who returns for his 11th season in columbia. ok, 4th yr, just seems like 11. will muschamp's defense starts the season healthy, too, after a season riddled w/injuries. easy call imho...
south carolina 8/31 NORTHWESTERN AT STANFORD -6.5
the trees have k.j. costello back at qb, but just 8 other starters. n'western has 12 starters returning but a new qb. su just 1-4 ats as home chalk of less than a td, 1-4 ats lately vs big 10 opponents, while the cats are a profitable dog on the ooc road (8-1 ats +7/less).
northwestern8/31 FLORIDA STATE -5.5 VS BOISE STATE AT JACKSONVILLE
intriguing game now in tallahassee. in '18 fsu's o-line fell apart (allowed most tackles for loss in the acc; run game gained 91 yds/game, 2.8/carry). noles were also #129 in d-1 in terms of penalties/game. ugh. meanwhile the broncos have beaten outright 6 of the last 10 power 5 foes they've faced. bsu is also 4-1 ats as dogs of 10/less, 7-3 ats in season openers. 21-12-1 ats on the road. but... boise has to replace a qb who was league player of the year, a rb drafted in the 3rd round, and 2 all-mwc wr's. I'm going to say that's too little experience. I hope.
florida state8/31 VIRGINIA TECH AT BOSTON COLLEGE +2.5
gobblers are 11-4 ats in acc road openers and 16 starters back from an '18 squad racked by suspensions & injuries. bc has covered 9 straight acc games as a dog, and stud rb a.j. dillon returns for the eagles. but I like
virginia tech in a revenge spot.
8/31 VIRGINIA AT PITT +3
like tech and bc, these 2 are also among the 38 teams favored to win the acc coastal.
last year pitt upset uva 23-13 in charlottesville. cavs qb perkins is one of the better dual threat guys in the league. revenge.
virginia8/31 FRESNO STATE AT USC -13.5
the bulldogs haven't allowed an opponent to score 30+ in over 2 years. impressive in today's video game era. but they're just 8-13 ats vs ooc lately. meanwhile there's no hotter coaching seat in cfb than clay helton's after losing 3 straight home games causing the first losing season for the trojans in nearly 2 decades. will adding ex-texas tech qb graham harrell as the new off coord help save his job? should be enough at least in week 1.
usc8/31 OLE MISS AT MEMPHIS -6
another new oc in this game, as rich rodriguez joins the rebels, tho he has just 3 returning starters on offense. but ol'miss has 10 starters back on d. rebels are also a money-making 15-7-1 ats vs ooc fbs opponents. memphis is 0-6 ats in season openers, 1-10 su vs sec foes. so why are they favored by nearly a td? sec teams are 5-1-1 ats as dogs vs non-power 5 programs since 1984.
mississippi9/2 NOTRE DAME -20.5 AT LOUISVILLE
one of the most intriguing hires in the off season to me was at 'ville, where bobby petrino is out and scott satterfield is in. he won 9+ games 4 straight years at appy state, 3 straight sun belt titles, 4 straight bowl wins. pretty innovative offensive strategy, which the cards will need having a defense that allowed 44/game in '18. ian book is back at qb for the irish, off a cfb playoff berth last year. but notre dame is 3-11 ats as chalk in road openers, 0-5 ats as -20/more in season openers. hm. and I just read that teams w/at least 17 returning starters (cards have 17) who are double digit dogs in game 1 off winning at least 3 games the previous season are 37-17 ats since 1990, 6-0 ats as home dogs lately.
louisville[/quote]
thipppppppppppppppp'
