is the quote from 'bohemian rhapsody'? aiming to get back over .500 at least for this week...
FRIDAY GAMES
NORTH CAROLINA AT
WAKE FOREST -3
great start by the heels under the brown part deux regime. I've always said that unc's program is one of the sleeping giants... at least it should be more consistent good every year. this is actually not a league game; being in different acc divisions both wanted to play more often than as a crossover game every 7 years. this howell kid as a true freshman qb has really shined, leading 2 4th qtr comeback upsets. but the canes outgained unc by 100 yards. meanwhile wake forest hasn't been favored vs an acc school since '16. as for trends, teams who've started a season w/2 su dog wins, are just 20-34 ats on the road vs a league foe since 1980. plus home team has won/covered the last 4 in the series. shaky nod to the demon deacons.
WASHINGTON STATE VS
HOUSTON +9 - AT NRG STADIUM
both come in off easy wins over fcs opponents. nrg is just 5 miles from the uh campus, btw. houston's cougars have won all 3 games played here since 2012, and are a stellar 13-3-1 ats as a regular season dog lately, 13-1-1 ats when getting 2+ points, while wsu's cougars are 4-0 ats as road chalk. but coach mike leach is just 6-14-1 ats vs ooc competition who's .500+. the locals keep this interesting...
SATURDAY GAMES
OHIO STATE AT INDIANA +15.5
1st road test for the bucks and the 1st true test for their new/improved defense. iu has lost 24 straight in this series, but scraps well every year (7-1 ats of late). qb justin fields has exceeded expectations out of the gate, but tosu is 1-5 ats as road chalk the last 6 games, 0-5 ats when a double digit road favorite. the hoosiers are just as bad as big 10 home dogs (1-5 ats), and is just 3-8-1 ats the last 12 games vs tosu in bloomington. little fearful of a backdoor cover, but as long as the buckeyes don't turn the ball over, indiana's defense I don't think is strong enough to last 4 qtrs.
AIR FORCE AT COLORADO -4
nice spot for the falcons here, catching cu off a dramatic ot comeback win over unl. flyboys have an experienced starting lineup, they're off a bye, they're 10-3-1 ats getting points on the road, 17-5-1 ats vs ooc opponents the last 5 years. they haven't played each other since '74 (who do you think will be more motivated?), the triple option is tough to prep for, it all adds up to upset alert to me.
STANFORD AT UCF -7.5
the trees head cross country to famous spectrum stadium, where ucf fans salivate to see a power 5 foe visit. the knights are 11-4 ats as home chalk, but just 2-11 su hosting the big boys. stanford gets k.j. costello back at qb from injury... he was missed vs usc last week. great game of contrasts; ucf has scored 30+ in 28 straight games with its speed, the methodical cardinal has topped 30 in just 3 of its last 11 games. but they are 8-0 ats when getting more than a td, 17-6 su/ats off a loss, 4-0 ats as a dog off a loss.
USC AT
BYU +4.5
there should be no bitching about byu's scheduling balls, taking on utah, then tennessee and now usc. washington is next, then a road trip to a toledo team that's usually pretty decent. trojan true frosh qb kedon slovis looked real good vs stanford. can he take it on the road in provo's altitude? 28-33 for 377 and 3 td's are tough numbers to repeat. plus the cougars are 10-3 ats off a win getting less than 9 points.
IOWA AT IOWA STATE -2.5
1st time, maybe ever, that the cyhawk rivalry has potential national implications. 1st time isu is favored in nearly 2 decades. visitor in the series is 25-13 ats, and the hawkeyes are 25-10-2 ats as road dogs the last 7 years. 5 of the last 8 between these two have been decided by 6 or less, no reason to think this one will buck that trend.
FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY +8
gators look for revenge after seeing their 31 game win streak over the 'cats snapped last year at the swamp. uk's qb was knocked out for the season last week... not good. uf's qb needs to play better than he did vs miami, but uk's new secondary gave up 337 yds passing to eastern last week. plus kentucky is 1-7 ats as home dogs vs revenge. and revenge is what florida will get imho.
OKLAHOMA AT
UCLA +23
3 td's seems like a lot to give a power 5 foe on the road, til you realize that ou has won 20 straight true road games (tops in fbs currently) and 20-12-1 ats away from norman. while the bruins have lost 8 straight vs top 10 opponents, is 1-8 ats at home vs ooc and 2-8 ats as home underdogs, but 5-1 ats when getting 10+ at home. w/19 returning starters, I'm taking a flyer that pride helps the hosts stay just under the number.
TEXAS TECH AT ARIZONA +2.5
scoreboard will need back up batteries for this one. all offense and very little defense. ua is 21-10-1 ats as home dogs, but have been penalized 21 times for 215 yards in just 2 games. I'll take tech's pass attack and seemingly improved defense.
MARYLAND AT
TEMPLE +7
terps looking like one of the early surprise teams this year. revenge spot for maryland after losing to temple 35-14 last year, and the visitor has covered 7 straight in this series. that said, the owls are 8-2 as home dogs, and here's a cfb nerd stat for you; ooc 1-0 home dogs off a bye (like temple) are 14-2 ats vs opponents off back/back wins. the last 9 times the terps have been road chalk, they are just 2-7 ats. I think there's value in this line.
KANSAS STATE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE -7.5
last year the bulldogs went to little manhattan and held ksu to 213 total yards in a dominant 31-10 win, and msu is 19-11 ats as home chalk. but their qb tommy stevens is out w/an injured shoulder, and ksu is 8-3 ats vs ooc foes overall, 4-1 ats as ooc road dogs. mix in a revenge spot next week for mississippi state w/uk, and I think it's a good spot for k-state to keep it close.
ARIZONA STATE AT
MICHIGAN STATE -13.5
yet another ooc revenge matchup. in '18 sparty went out to tempe and stunk up the joint, losing 16-13 to a mediocre asu team. turned out msu was equally mediocre. so far this year the sun devils have struggled to move the ball vs kent state and sacramento state; is it all of sudden going to resurface vs one of the better defenses in the country (msu has allowed -6 yds rushing in 2 games)? doubtfui.
FLORIDA STATE AT VIRGINIA -7
noles dodged disaster last week after la-monroe missed an extra point in ot. uva may be the 2nd best team in the acc, which may not be saying much.
but this is true; in 18 previous games between these 2 teams, the cavs have never been favored. ever. plus they're just 2-10 ats as acc home favorites of 7/less. as bad as fsu has looked, I'll bank on history here.
TCU AT
PURDUE -2.5
w/the boilers' qb being a game-time call, that makes this game tough to call. frogs are just 14-23 ats the last 3+ seasons. I think purdue having a bye next week may help sindelar try to make a go.
Read more:
aolcfboutcasts.proboards.com/thread/42484/week-3?page=1#ixzz5zH4OHjLl
