AIR FORCE AT BOISE ST -8.5
the air force offense is tough to defend if you don't see it very often, but boise does. every year. and yet the falcons are still 5-1-1 ats lately vs bsu, whose numbers as home chalk are awful (2-10 ats in the 2nd of back/back home games, 2-8 ats as weekday home faves, 2-9 ats as home favorites of between 7.5-14 pts) while the flyboys are 10-2 ats as road dogs of 7-10 pts.
TENNESSEE AT FLORIDA -14
big question to me in this game is whether the vol o-line can do anything vs uf's strong front 7. gators have won 13 of the last 14 in the series, and haven't lost at home to ut since '03. but last year these teams were virtually even in total yards; 5 tennessee turnovers fueled the 47-21 final score. the vols expect to get a couple key defenders back on the field, and uf's secondary is dealing w/some injuries. vols are 2-0 ats the last decade getting 10+ at the swamp, and I think they keep things interesting.
MICHIGAN AT
WISCONSIN -3
no doubt the ugly hats are due for a breakout game after 2 mediocre wins to start the season. revenge spot for the badgers after getting pounded 38-13 at the big house in '18. uw's jonathon taylor is one of the premier d-1 backs but um's defense is allowing just 3 yards/carry. question is can the wolverine offense snap out of their funk vs a defense that's yet to allow a point. michigan is 1-6 ats off a bye, harbaugh is 6-12 ats as a road dog in his college career (1-3 ats in ann arbor) while uw is 3-0 su/ats w/revenge. at the start of the week I thought um would turn it around here, but now I can't see it.
CALIFORNIA AT OLE MISS -2
2 good defenses here. in '17 cal pulled off a 27-16 home upset over the rebs. bears opened as a favorite here before the public swung it the other way, but cal has covered its last 6 as ooc road dogs. ol' miss has covered just 1 of its last 8 lined games, they have alabama on deck and cal's secondary is actually really good.
MICHIGAN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN +10
the numbers in last week's msu-asu game were bizarre. sparty outgained the devils 404-216 (by nearly 200 yds!), had 23 1st downs to 14, were +2 in the turnover battle, yet still lost 10-7. they've held all 3 foes so far this year to season lows in total offense. in '18 the cats upset state 29-19, continuing a trend where the visitor here has won 10 of the last 12 games. n'western's offense is not exactly a well oiled machine, plus their starting qb and 2 best rb's are banged up. nu is 14-5 ats vs big 10 foes, but better on the road than at home. plus (cfb nerd stat alert), road teams in game 4 off their 1st loss, who were bowlers the previous year, are 11-1-1 ats w/revenge vs foes off scoring 30+. common knowledge.
AUBURN AT
TEXAS A&M -4
aubie's tigers (see cb? I'm learning'-ha) head to college station. last year au won a 28-24 thriller. tho a&m is 10-2 ats as a small home chalk, they're just 3-8 ats w/sec revenge recently. the visitor here is 5-1-1 ats, but this is auburn frosh qb bo nix's 1st sec road game. he's only completed 52% of his passes thus far, and the aggie defense is much improved. war eagle is 0-4 su/ats the last 2 years as road dogs, and I think it goes to 0-5.
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
PITT +12.5
ucf ran over, around and thru stanford, while the panthers tossed away a huge upset change at penn state. so the knights should do the same to pitt, right? well, the hosts are 4-2 ats as home dogs, 9-1 ats getting 7+, and this is the 1st time ucf has played power 5 opponents back to back in 3 years. they're 4-23 su on the road vs power 5 opponents, 0-13 su the last 13 times.
WASHINGTON AT BYU +6
no team's played a more ambitious schedule than byu (utah, tenn, usc and now uw, only program in the country to start off vs 4 power 5 foes), and I wonder if the cumulative effect may finally surface. in '18 the huskies rolled 35-7. the cougars have been outgained in all 3 games so far, they're 0-4 ats at home w/revenge, and just 2-5 ats at home vs pac 12 opponents.
APPALACHIAN STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA -3
kind of surprising that these 2 schools, about 160 miles apart, haven't played since before ww2. 1st time the heels have been favored in a game this season, after 2 comeback upset wins and nearly pulling off a 3rd, thanks to outscoring foes 38-9 in the 4th qtr so far. appy state's run defense has had some holes, not good when carolina's strength is the rush attack. asu though is 18-9 ats on the road, while in the last 30 games, unc has only been a favorite 6 times, and they're 1-5 ats in those 6.
KENTUCKY AT
MISSISSIPPI STATE -7
tough spot emotionally for uk, after blowing a 21-10 4th qtr lead to florida and now heading to starkville to face a bulldog team the cats upset 28-7 a year ago. but msu also has to pick themselves off the floor after losing to kansas st at home, and the cowbells are just 2-7 ats at home off a home loss. the visitor is 0-4 su/ats in this series of late, and I think bulldog qb stevens redeems himself on the heels of a poor performance.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT
MISSOURI -9.5
triple revenge spot for mizzou. last year the tigers outgained usc-e by 100+ yds but lost 37-35. last week the gamecocks got a backdoor cover, scoring in the final seconds vs alabama. but here's an interesting stat I found; road dogs off a su loss/ats win vs the tide are a money-losing 10-15 ats in their next game.
WEST VIRGINIA AT
KANSAS +4.5
could the jayhawks be overconfident after a 24 point win at bc as a 20 point underdog, their first road win over a power 5 opponent since the teddy roosevelt administration? well, actually it was just 48 straight losses since '05, (2005 not 1905) but it seems longer. the last 20 times ku actually won a game anywhere, they're just 5-15 ats in the next matchup. but wvu doesn't inspire confidence as a road favorite off a home dog win over nc state (teams in the role lately are 34-55 ats). when in doubt, take the points.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT
TEXAS -5
cowboys enter 3-0, but the wins are over oregon st, mcneese st, and tulsa. not exactly murderers row. they've also won 4 straight over the 'horns, 3 of those wins by just a fg each. texas is 4-1 ats of late w/big 12 revenge, 3-0 su/ats w/quadruple revenge. as a head coach, tom herman is 20-7 ats as chalk of less than a td. nice matchup of osu's strong run game vs ut's strong front 7.
NOTRE DAME AT
GEORGIA -13.5
certainly a potential playoff elimination game, especially for the irish. hard to believe a team who made last year's final 5 is a 2 td underdog to anybody, and (cfb nerd stat alert) since 2015, road dogs of 12+ who won 12+ games the previous year are 11-0 ats. that's a tough trend to go against, but the talent level, especially in the trenches, really leans to uga.
LOUISVILLE AT
FLORIDA STATE -6.5
until the noles stop committing 9 penalties/game, nearly the worst in d-1, I don't see how anyone has fsu as a favorite. not that they couldn't be unbeaten, blowing 4th qtr leads 3 times, including at uva last week. but the cards' qb is beat up.
UTAH AT
USC +4
home team has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 9/game. nice revenge spot for usc after utah outgained them by 340 yds in a 41-28 win more dominant than the final score. with the visitor just 1-7 ats in the last 8 games between these 2, plus this being just the 3rd time in nearly 7 years that the trojans have been a home dog (covered the last 2), a shaky lean to sc.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
