WEEK 6“You don’t qualify for the loan.”
“How is that possible?”
“You don’t have enough money.”
“What do you mean? It says right here we have four hundred and one thousand dollars.”
“No, that’s says you have a 401K account.”OK kids. Lots of teams with byes this week so we are dipping some into the depth chart to find interesting games.
Note the early game.
I know this one. will farrell, amy poehler..... aaaaahhhhhhh. can't remember the name of the flick....
FRIDAY GAMEUCF AT CINCINATI +4.
lossrevenge spot for uc, who got drilled 38-13 last yr in orlando. problem is the bearcats are just 2-12 ats playing w/revenge, while the knights are 8-2 ats playing vs revenge, and 18-8 ats as a favorite lately (9-4 ats as road chalk). cincy is 1-5 ats getting points at home.
SATURDAY GAMESIOWA AT MICHIGAN -3.5.
lossso how much did last week's 52-0 drubbing of rutgers reveal? that um is back or that state u of nj is awful? no program in the big 10 gets less respect than unflashy iowa, who's won 5 of the last 6 in this series (last game played in '16). fwiw, the ugly hats struggled w/mid tenn st for 3 qtrs in the opener, while the hawkeyes drilled them 48-3 last week. in their last 38 road games, over 7+ years, iowa is 25-11-2 ats. they're also 18-4-1 ats vs big 10 foes off a 21+ win. um has 10 turnovers in 4 games (hawkeyes have 1), um is 4-10 ats as home chalk of 9/less, 0-8 ats vs undefeated opponents. I think the wrong team is favored here.
PITT AT DUKE -5.
winthe dukies won me a little $$ last week w/their win at va tech. now they're favored vs an injury-riddled pitt team who barely survived delaware. problem is, duke is 3-10 the last 4 years as home faves, 1-11 ats as acc home chalk of 7/less w/revenge (panthers won 54-45 in '16). pitt is 20-13 ats getting points recently, 13-6 ats as road dogs, their defense is playing lights out. despite their qb being banged up w/a shoulder injury, good defenses travel.
TEXAS AT
WEST VIRGINIA +11.
pushis anyone else tired of hearing folks arguing about 'horns down'? just a thought. 1st trip outside texas this season for the longhorns, who are just 4-8 ats as road favorites. wvu has covered 3 straight here. both are off byes, and last yr the 'eers scored w/0:16 left to win 42-41. qb sam ehlinger has been great leading the burnt orange offense, but d has been shaky, while wvu's young team (12 new starters) is starting to jell. factor in homecoming in morgantown, and texas having the sooners up next (ut just 1-7 ats prior to ou), giving 11 is too generous.
CALIFORNIA AT
OREGON -18.
lossspeaking of good defenses traveling, that's what cal will need in eugene, especially since qb chase gabers is out indefinitely w/a shoulder injury. home team here has covered 10 of the last 13 in the series. the bears have gone 7-0 ats as away dogs in the last 2 seasons, w/2 outright upset wins, but just 1-9 ats as dogs of 14+. plus the ducks' d appears improved this year (no td's allowed in their last 3 games).
MICHIGAN STATE AT OHIO STATE -20.
lossyet another good defense on the road in a prime time matchup. in '13 and '15, sparty pulled off devastating upsets wrecking buckeye shots at #1. but since '15, msu has scored 1 td and 6 fg's vs tosu, negating good defensive efforts. no one's looked better to date this year than the bucks, but the visitor in this series has won 7 of the last 8 outright and covered 8 of the last 10. msu is 8-3 as road dogs overall of late too, and an even better 16-4-2 ats on the big 10 road w/revenge. I'll add a cfb nerd stat to boot; since 1980, 5-0 teams are just 6-24 ats off a double digit ats cover vs a league foe off back/back wins. close.
TULANE AT ARMY +3.
winno surprise that army runs the option, but it is unusual that a non-academy opponent does. and tulane does, though theirs is more of a spread while the cadets lean to the triple option. plus they have a pretty good d-line (held auburn to just over 3 yards/carry earlier this year). army held michigan to 108 on the ground a few weeks ago. that info make me prefer the total here... going under 43.5. picking a side is a toss up... since tulane is 5-2 ats as road chalk since '16, and army is 0-5 ats as dogs of 5/less vs opponents off a win, I'll go w/the visitors.
AIR FORCE AT
NAVY +3.5.
winwhile we're on the subject of totals, in the last 27 games between service academies, 22 of them have gone under. just a thought. total here is 45. host in this series has won the last 6 and covered 5. big revenge spot for the middies, who got blown out 35-3 a year ago. falcons are 8-4 ats as road dogs, navy 5-4-1 ats as home favorites. both teams' qb's are banged up, but I like dog teams off a loss despite winning the stats; navy got beat by memphis 35-23 despite outgaining them by nearly 100 yards.
AUBURN AT FLORIDA +3.
losspremier matchup of the weekend between 2 top 10 teams. the fact that this is the 1st meeting in 8 years is just ridiculous. au has been the surprise team in the country imho; 5-0 su and ats w/a true frosh qb in bo nix, while uf backup qb kyle trask has done well leading the uk comeback and 2 subsequent wins. there are some trends that favor the gators; auburn is in the same position as tosu as a 5-0 road fave off a big cover vs a team off back/back wins. and uf is 7-0 ats as a +2/more dog vs sec foes off back/back wins. but the tigers are 9-5-1 ats as road chalk since '15, and here's an interesting nugget; since 1986 there have been 8 teams who were home dogs off back/back games holding opponents to 3/less points in each game. those home dogs are 1-7 su, 1-6-1 ats. both teams have good defenses, both have relatively inexperienced qb's, but auburn's o-line is better than florida's, I think trask is going struggle under that rush, and war eagle has played and won w/a much tougher schedule to date.
BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE -1.
wina week ago baylor coughed up a 20-0 lead vs iowa state, then came back w/a last second fg to win 23-21, while k-state struggled, losing 26-13 at okie state. wildcats are just 4-7-1 ats the last 4+ yrs as home favorites, while the bears are 9-6 ats getting points away from home. going w/the mildest of upsets.
BOSTON COLLEGE AT LOUISVILLE -6.
winbc has covered 8 of its last 10 on the road, and should have beaten wake forest last saturday (2 turnovers negating a 100 yd edge in total yds). l'villa is only 11-25 ats at home off a loss, and they have not 1 but 2 banged up qb's. I think rb a.j. dillon will have a big day.
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT TOLEDO -1.5.
lossthis matchup could decide the mac west division. rockets enter off a big home win over byu, but ut has been outgained by their 3 toughest opponents. wmu has double revenge here, and I think they get it behind a quality run defense.
TCU AT IOWA STATE -3.5.
losslast week's loss to baylor makes this almost a must win game for isu to stay in the running for the big 12 title game. home team has won 4 of the last 5 in this series, but the visitor has covered 3 of the last 4, and this is the first time in a decade that the horned frogs are the underdog. cyclones are 9-0 ats as home favorite of less than 10, but tcu's defense is good and them getting points for the 1st time since 2009 is too much to pass up.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH +10.
losscowboys have revenge, after losing 41-17 a year ago. tech has its starting qb hurt, its back up qb benched and its 3rd string qb under center. red raiders have allowed its last 2 opponents to average 258 yds on the ground, 5.7/carry. not good news when the nation's leading rusher, chooba hubbard, is on the other side.
NORTHWESTERN AT
NEBRASKA -7.5.
losslast 8 games between these 2 have been decided by an average of 6 pts/game. 'cats were their typical scrappy selves in madison, losing just 24-15 to uw thanks to allowing both a pick-6 and a fumble return for a td. but n'western is yet another program who can't keep their qb's healthy. and its hard to fade the wildcats when they are 9-3 su/12-0 ats as big 10 road dogs the last 2+ years. plus unl is 8-19 ats at home w/revenge (lost 34-31 in evanston last yr), 1-7 ats as home chalk off a home loss. and man that was a humiliating loss. which is why I'm going against the trends and think the huskers bounce back. kind of.
ARIZONA AT COLORADO -4.
winhey. a game w/an injured qb! khalil tate is still questionable for 'zona. 6'6 true frosh grant gunnell made his 1st start and threw for 352 in a 20-17 win over ucla. ua has covered just 18 of its last 50 games, but the buffs in boulder are bad news as chalk. combine that on the heels of their 34-31 win over arizona st, the program's first win over a ranked team in 17 years? I'll take the points
BONUS BATTLE OF STINKVANDERBILT AT
OLE MISS -7.
winevery league has its stinker games; you're just not allowed to label them as such in the sec.
. rebels did put up 31 points and 476 total yds on the tide last week tho lots of it came after being down 45-10 after 3 qtrs. vandy's rb is good (vaughn?) and they upset ol' miss 36-29 in nashville in '18 , so combine that with the home team off back/back losses and I think the rebels right the ship,
. rebels did put up 31 points and 476 total yds on the tide last week tho lots of it came after being down 45-10 after 3 qtrs. vandy's rb is good (vaughn?) and they upset ol' miss 36-29 in nashville in '18 , so combine that with the home team off back/back losses and I think the rebels right the ship,
