WEEK 7"I am Anknemrah, fourth king of the fourth king, ruler of the land of my fathers."
"I am Larry, son of Milton, and this is my son Nick."On we go.
Let’s get right into it.
Interestingly, two of the classic legacy matchups, SC/ND and the TX/OU are both double-digit spreads.
I'm am also a little puzzled about how the Canes are laying points to Virginia.
no clue on the movie.
FRIDAY GAME#20
VIRGINIA AT MIAMI (FL) -2.5.
loss. 6 times inside the miami 25 and uva scores 9 points. jeezthis is the 4th of 5 straight home games for the canes. they've won 3 of the last 4 in the series but uva has covered the last 2, including a 16-13 upset win in '18. each enters this game having failed to cover their last 3 lined games. both also have struggling o-lines and strong run defenses. miami has lost 4 straight, and 8 of 10, vs power 5 foes. hm. they're also just 4-8 ats as home chalk of late. cavs off a bye after a physical loss to nd, but they are 13-8-1 ats as road dogs, 7-0 ats as dogs off a bye, 10-2 ats off a 10+ loss. too many trends favoring the wahoos.
SATURDAY GAMES#1 ALABAMA AT #24
TEXAS A&M +16.5.
lossever since manziel led the aggies to that upset win back in '12, the tide has won 6 straight by an average of 20+/game. but a&m has covered the last 2 in the series, and will bring the best defense (holding opponents 112 yds below their season ave) alabama has faced to date. tide's d has had injuries and yet still has held foes to 101 yds below their season ave. so can aggie qb kellen mond improve on what 2 true frosh sec qb's have done? a&m is 8-2 ats at home of late, 11-0 ats as home dogs of 8+ vs unbeaten opponents. plus the last 8 times saban's team has been -20/less, they've only covered 2.
MICHIGAN STATE AT #8 WISCONSIN -10.5.
big losssparty's run d got embarrassed by the buckeyes last week to the tune of 323 yds. and that's getting me some extra points here imho, because dantonio's bunch won't have as big a need to defense the pass in madison as they did in columbus. this is the badgers' 5th straight home game (who does that these days?) and their d is holding opponents 211 yds below their season averages, mainly because jonathon taylor is chewing up clock and yards w/every carry. but, that 5-0 stat I referenced last week for auburn? the one I didn't heed? applies here too. add in msu's 9-2 ats record as dogs vs big 10 unbeatens, and I think there's a real chance of an upset here.
#11
TEXAS VS #6 OKLAHOMA (AT DALLAS) -11.5.
winthe last 5 regular season red river rivalry/shootouts have all been decided by 7/less, and the horns have covered 6 straight (not counting last year's ccg) in dallas. tom herman is 14-3 ats as a dog w/11 outright upsets, 5-0 ats when getting 10+. they're getting 10+ here because the texas db and rb units read more like triage reports. the horns' 3rd string qb will be a rb saturday. not good vs an improved ou defense and an even more efficient offense. but... the sooners commit more penalties than any d-1 program except 1, and the favorite in this series has covered just 9 of the last 27 games. I'll take a chance that sam ehlinger can stay alive, move the chains ('horns are #2 in the country for 3rd down conversion %) and keep jalen hurd et al off the field enough to hang around.
USC AT #9 NOTRE DAME -11.
winhost in this series has covered 6 straight. trojans are off a bye week, and they're 5-0 ats w/rest off a loss. qb kedon slovis is expected back after a concussion. but sc is a woeful 3-13 ats as a road dog the last 3 years. irish starters are basically off a 1/2 bye (sitting the 2nd half of last week's 52-0 win over bgsu) , and have edges in all phases. but this is the 3rd time this season that nd is facing an opponent who's off a bye week. really rolling the dice on this dog.
FRESNO STATE AT AIR FORCE -3.5.
lossfalcons come in off an emotional loss to navy, allowing a game-winning td w/0:23 left. fresno is 8-0 ats as a dog of late, and has a stout run defense (110 yds/game). the bulldogs' 2 losses have come by a total of 11 points to 2 power 5 teams. air force is just 9-19 ats as league home chalk, 1-8 ats after playing the middies.
WYOMING AT
SAN DIEGO STATE -4
cowboys have covered 9 straight vs fbs opponents. 2 good run defenses. problem is wyoming's pass attack is lame. despite being 4-1, they've been outgained in 4 of those 5 games.
#7
FLORIDA AT #5 LSU -13.5.
losstigers have won and covered all 5 games so far this season, and now their high flying offense (#1 in the red zone) faces a real good uf defense (#1 in the red zone) who's caused 17 turnovers (12 of them picks) in 5 games. despite lsu being 5-1 ats lately in revenge games, I think joe burrow will be flying at a lower altitude, but I don't think the gators have enough offense to pull off the upset. just keep it close.
#10 PENN STATE AT #17
IOWA +4.
lossanother night game where points figure to be at a premium. hawkeyes had 4 turnovers last week in ann arbor yet lost only 10-3 thanks to a defense that allowed only 267 total yards. Iowa is 12-5 ats at home, 8-2 ats as home dogs of 3+, while psu is just 11-19 ats in true road games and has scuffled vs ranked opponents away from happy valley, 2-7 ats as big 10 road favorites of less than 14.
LOUISVILLE AT #19 WAKE FOREST -6.5.
winlast 2 years the demon deacons have pulled off outright upsets as dogs over the cardinals. now wake is a ranked favorite. neither team has been good in their respective roles here... holding my nose w/'ville in the revenge role.
TEXAS TECH AT #22 BAYLOR -11.
winunbeaten baylor is off an impressive win at k-state, while tech broke a 10 game losing streak vs ranked foes beating okie state. bears' qb got banged up last week. red raiders are already on a qb who began the season #3 on the depth chart. tt is 11-6 ats getting points on the road. bu is 0-7 ats at home in this series.
WASHINGTON AT
ARIZONA +6.5
home team is 8-2 su/ats in this series. you have to wonder how much mojo the huskies will bring after suffering their 2nd loss of the season at stanford last week. and ua having khalil tate back and healthy at qb won't help either (he threw for 400 yds in last week's 35-30 win vs colorado). uw is just 2-6 ats lately as pac 12 road chalk; the 'cats are 7-3-1 ats in their last 10 league home games.
#23 MEMPHIS AT
TEMPLE +6.
wintough call here. memphis is 7-2 ats as road chalk and has been good on offense, really good on special teams. owls' defense has been solid, they've outgained every opponent so far this year, and they're 7-0 ats as home dogs of 12/less.
NEBRASKA AT MINNESOTA -7.5.
lossyou throw out all the records when you're playing for the $5 bits of broken chair trophy. huskers were lucky to beat n'western last week, and unlucky to lose qb taylor martinez late in that game and is questionable for saturday, as well as #1 wr j.r. spielman. gophers playing w/revenge from last yr's 53-28 drubbing. home team has won/covered 3 straight in the series, but minnesota's 5-0 record is built on suspect competition.
WASHINGTON STATE AT #18 ARIZONA STATE - PICK.
losssun devils are 12-3 su in this series since '04 and their defense has played well this year, while wsu enters off 2 straight losses in which they allowed over 1100 yards and 100+ points, prompting the resignation of their defensive coordinator this past week. but... the cougars are a money-making 16-6 ats on the pac 12 road off a loss, and (cfb nerd stat alert) rested 3-2 teams off 2 straight losses are 12-1 ats
BONUS GAMEHAWAII AT #14 BOISE STATE -12
bsu has won/covered 5 straight in the series, but they are just 2-10 ats as home faves of 14/less. hawaii's pass attack is good (so is the broncos' pass rush, with 19 sacks in '19), good enough to make things interesting.
