8-9-1you can never go wrong quoting the boys from joliet...
THE GAMES
2 SEP 21
1
BOISE STATE
AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA -5.
push. all ucf had to do was kick the xp on the game winning td, but they go for 2 and don't make it.imho this line is really reflective of the coaching matchup more than the players; bsu's ex-def coord andy avalos vs ucf's gus malzahn, the school's 5th head coach since '15. broncos have covered 5 straight as dogs lately, but a year ago they actually allowed more total yards than they gained, not an encouraging stat. plus rookie coaches in their 1st away game for teams who won 5/less the previous year are just 38-58-6 ats. ucf.
2
APPALACHIAN STATE -10.5
VS
EAST CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE.
loss. 2 long tine southern conference rivals meet for the 1st time as fbs programs. on paper asu looks like the obvious choice, but... ecu has 20 returning starters, they're 7-1 ats of late vs winning league foes, and the 'eers may be peeking ahead to next week vs miami. east carolina.
3
#4 OHIO STATE
AT
MINNESOTA +13.5.
loss. if Ibrahim doesn't go down w/the injury, gophers cover. them's the breaksthis line is begging bettors to put bucks on the bucks. which, w/a rookie qb making his first start on the road under the lights in prime time, make me a little nervous. matter of fact, there's not a qb on tosu's roster who's completed a pass on the college level... that's a first for the program since 1952 (woody's 2nd year as coach). tosu is talented, but they are #129 in d1a in terms of returning experience, while the gophers are #1. the home team also has a rb in mohammed ibrahim who you'll see on sundays, behind a high quality o-line which will challenge the bucks' completely new lb crew and, if successful in controlling the clock, put pressure on c.j. stroud. yes, ryan day is 6-1 ats as road chalk but minnesota has covered the last 3 in series, is 9-1 ats getting 8+ at home, and they don't have a high profile home game vs oregon on deck. back door cover for minnesota.
3 SEP 21
4
#10 NORTH CAROLINA -5.5
AT
VIRGINIA TECH.
winI've thought for years that unc was a program that should be on the cusp of a consistent winner, and mack brown came out of retirement putting the heels in that direction. but I wonder if they're getting a little too much preseason love ranked in the top 10. qb sam howell might indeed be a top pick come april, but here in the fall he doesn't have javonte williams or michael carter (2385 yds combined rushing in '20) to take the pressure off the pass game. plus carolina had 21 players transfer out. yes the gobblers' 27 yr bowl streak ended last season, but the home team in this series has covered 4 straight, va tech is 5-1 ats w/revenge, unc is just 1-5 ats as 7/under chalk, and (useless cfb stat #1) 'mission' teams (those off a losing season after having multiple winning years) are 10-2 ats as dogs w/revenge in openers since '05. virginia tech.
5
MICHIGAN STATE
AT
NORTHWESTERN -3.
lossn'western lost a ton of production from last year's west division title team, but gets clemson qb transfer hunter johnson to take the reins. nu is in revenge mode after losing 29-20 in east lansing, and the wildcats are 12-3 ats the last 6 years w/revenge. plus the wife's alma mater is an absolute train wreck; last year's team had no player drafted, first time that's happened since the 1930's. nu is also 9-1 ats as chalk of 10/less. go u northwestern.
4 SEP 21
6
STANFORD
VS
KANSAS ST -2.5 AT ARLINGTON, TX.
winstanford opened -1 before the $$ swung the other way, maybe because the cardinal has really struggled the last 2 years. both programs like ball control offenses, but ksu has the advantage in offense behind 6th year qb skylar thompson (he's led the wildcats to back-back upset wins over oklahoma) and do everything back deuce vaughn. kansas state.
7
#19
PENN STATE AT #12 WISCONSIN -4.5.
win2nd most attractive game of the weekend imho. badgers are high on qb graham mertz, who looks like their best since some kid from nc state transferred in a decade ago. both teams like to run to set up play action. of late psu is just 3-6 ats as big 10 road dogs, but they're 6-1 su/ats vs wisconsin the last 7. I also like that the nitts are looking to bounce back from their first losing season in 16 years. last time that happened they went 11-1. I'll take the points. they are... penn state.
8
#17 INDIANA
AT #18
IOWA -3.5.
winhoosiers are getting similar love to what north carolina is getting. that happens in bloomington when you're off back-back winning seasons including wins over um, psu and uw. iu qb michael penix reminds me a lot of michael vick, and if he can stay healthy, indiana will be trouble. they're 7-0 ats the last 3 years as road dogs, while the hawkeyes are 11-4 ats as big 10 home chalk of 7/less. that 1/2 point may hurt me but I'll take Iowa.
9
#14
MIAMI (FL) +19
VS #1 ALABAMA AT ATLANTA.
lossyou go against the tide in neutral site home openers at your own peril, since they've won 10 straight by an average of 25/game. that said, it's a lot of reloading trying to replace a qb who'll be starting for the patriots, a rb and 2 wr's who also went in the 1st round, and a defense that, at least by saban standards, was mediocre (19 ppg, but 8 starters return and that number should improve). alabama is 7-0 ats vs acc and 7-0 ats as 20/less chalk vs ooc. that said, the canes return 19 starters, they're 5-2 ats as road dogs lately, 9-1-1 ats away/neutral site vs sec, they have the kind of mobile qb in d'eriq king that has caused headaches for 'bama at times. and (useless cfb stat #2) defending champs are 11-16 ats as favorites of 6+ vs ooc on neutral fields. university of miami.
10
#23
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE AT #21 TEXAS -9.
lossno program is more perennially overrated than texas. but there's no overrating on this line. louisiana knocked off iowa state on the road last year, they return 21 starters and their coach, billy napier, turned down a few sec offers to return to lafayette and build on 2 straight 10 win seasons. they have a good qb in levi lewis and return their top 4 wr's. in fact, only 4 programs have averaged 200+ yds rushing and receiving in each of the last 2 years. tosu, l'ville, ucf... and the ragin' cajuns. steve sarkisian takes over for tom herman in austin, and the new coach will have a new qb (redshirt frosh hudson card) and big time rb bijon robinson behind an experienced o-line. but 16 players transferred out after herman left. not a good sign in terms of depth. plus ull is 11-3 ats of late as away dogs or chalk of 7/less. louisiana.
11
SAN JOSE STATE AT #15 USC -14.
losshigh expectations in tinseltown for the trojans and qb kedon slovis. but here's yet another case where the favorite has an edge in talent but a huge disparity in experience. 20 starters return for the defending mwc champ spartans, including 6th yr senior qb nick starkel. the visitors are 7-1 ats getting 14/more, usc is 0-5 ats in home openers under clay helton, 4-13 ats vs ooc foes. give me the men of sparta. san jose state.
12
TEXAS TECH -1.5
VS
HOUSTON (PLAYED AT NRG STADIUM IN HOUSTON).
lossdana holgorsen has made lots of $$ w/o producing lots of wins, and his seat is hot. 18 starters back from a team that lost 28-14 in its bowl last year to hawaii as -7 favorites. there's a guy in football betting circles who claims the 'red faced bowler' angle is historically a good bet. in this case the team who lost is 17-1 su/14-6 ats in its opener the next season playing an opponent who won 4/less last year. add to it the fact that tech hasn't had a winning season since '15, I'll buy it. houston.
13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT #13 FLORIDA -24.5.
winyet another huge contradiction in talent vs experience. gators return 9 starters, fau has 20 back. emory jones has bided his time for the starting qb job at uf, and his running ability is w/o question, but not having pitts or toney to pass to, along w/a run game that didn't exactly plow people over (131/game in '20) is cause for a little concern. last time these 2 played in '15, uf was -29.5 and won just 20-14. fau isn't exactly explosive on offense either, but their defense is decent, plus they are an impressive 26-10-1 ats as road dogs since '12, 7-1 ats as +24+ ooc dogs, 4-1 ats their last 5 vs sec foes, and florida is just 1-6 ats lately as chalk of 21+. too many trends to ignore. florida atlantic.
14
#3 CLEMSON -3
VS #5
GEORGIA AT CHARLOTTE.
winpremiere game of the weekend. great to see these 2 play again since the campuses are physically close to each other (so naturally the game is in charlotte-lol). high expectations this season for the dawgs... usc transfer j.t. daniel lived up to his rep when he took over late in the season, and uga has game-breaker kearis jackson too, along w/their top 4 rb's and a solid d-line. tigers have to replace a ton of talent on offense, obviously. d.j. uiagalelei looked pretty damn good vs the Irish in '20. clemson does qualify for that 'red faced bowler' trend after the bucks spanked them in the playoffs. dabo swinney is 5-0 su starting a season off a bowl loss too, while the dawgs are a money-burning 3-11 ats as dogs of 8/less. that said, sec teams getting points in ooc games is something I can't pass up. georgia.
15
#16
LSU AT UCLA +3.5.
lossthe nationally renowned football outsiders talent returners index (no, I'm not making this up, except for the nationally renowned part-ha) has lsu at the top of its list (oregon and the canes are #2-3). the dozens of player family members, staff, and pets inside the rose bowl last week may have been impressed by the bruins beating up hawaii, but ucla is just 3-10 ats in the 2nd of back/back home games, 1-6 ats as ooc dogs of 21/less, ed orgeron is 16-6 ats in baton rouge in road games, 5-0 ats as ooc road chalk of 12/less. no game is a lock, but boy this one looks pretty close to one to me...lsu.
16
NEVADA AT CALIFORNIA -3.
winnevada at cal? walt?
. ok. cal actually is coming off its best recruiting ranked spring in over a decade, but those guys aren't ready to contribute right away yet. nevada returns all 22 starters from a year ago, including mwc player of the year carson strong at qb. the wolfpack are 5-2 ats the last 3 years as 9/less road dogs while the bears are just 1-8-1 ats as home chalk lately. nevada.
5 SEP 21
#9 NOTRE DAME
AT
FLORIDA STATE +7.
winhearing of the passing of bobby bowden reminded me of when I interviewed him at a fellowship of christian athletes event in charleston wv back in the late 80s. my job as a reporter was typically to put my subject at ease. that was not an issue w/bobby, who made me feel like I'd been a bar buddy of his. incredibly engaging. what a mark he left on cfb. will be great to see mckenzie milton back on the field at qb for fsu after that nightmare injury a couple years ago while w/ucf, and I'm curious to see how rb demarkcus bowman performs after transferring from clemson. unfortunately for them, imho, they'll be running into the strength of the irish this year... a very solid defense. but I don't see uw transfer jack coan unleashing any dynamite for nd on the other side of the ball. I like mike norville at fsu, and think they keep it close in a low scoring game. florida state.
6 SEP 21
LOUISVILLEOLE MISS -10
AT ATLANTA
lossforgot about the monday nighter. this will be the only time (unless a game gets rescheduled) that a sec team isn't playing on a saturday, I think. 1st ever mtg for these two. rebels averaged 556 yds/39 pts a game behind returning starting qb matt corral (who led fbs in total offense-385). problem is lane kiffin's defense (10 starters return) allowed 38 ats/521 yds a game. cards have a good dual threat qb (malik cunningham), as mentioned earlier they have been balanced on offense the last couple years (200+/game running and passing), and scott satterfield is 52-5 su as a head coach when his team scores 30+. 'ville keeps it interesting.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
. ok. cal actually is coming off its best recruiting ranked spring in over a decade, but those guys aren't ready to contribute right away yet. nevada returns all 22 starters from a year ago, including mwc player of the year carson strong at qb. the wolfpack are 5-2 ats the last 3 years as 9/less road dogs while the bears are just 1-8-1 ats as home chalk lately. nevada.
