WEEK 4"Earth is amazing! There are these things called farms. They put seeds in the ground, pour water on them, and they grow into food, like pizza!"uh, 3rd rock from the sun? 
THE GAMESTHURSDAY, SEP 231. (2-1)
MARSHALL AT (2-1) APPALACHIAN STATE -7 (OPEN -5.5)
herd enters here off putting up 627 total yds, and building a 17 pt 4th qtr lead over e carolina, allowing 3 td's in the final 15:00 and then tossing a goal line pick w/0:05 left to lose 42-38. but (cfb nerd stat #1) game 4 dogs off a favorite loss are 36-13-1 ats, plus the herd is 6-0-1 ats as ooc road dogs. asu is 3-7-1 ats in the 2nd of back/back home games. marshall.
FRIDAY, SEP 242. (3-0)
WAKE FOREST AT (2-1) VIRGINIA -4 (OPEN -4)
so uva gives up 699 yds and 59 pts in a blowout loss to unc, yet is still favored over unbeaten wake? a team the cavs are 0-5-1 ats against the last 6 meetings? game 4 home chalk off their 1st loss (where they allowed 35+) are 20-35-1 ats vs league opponents, plus virginia is 5-14 su as home faves vs acc foes, and the deacons are 12-5 ats getting pts on the road. wake forest.
SATURDAY, SEP 253. (3-0) #12
NOTRE DAME VS (1-1) WISCONSIN -5.5 (OPEN -6)
AT SOLDIER FIELD, CHICAGO
1st mtg in 57 yrs. before the season began the irish were favored by 5 here, but now there's been a 10 pt swing. despite uw's 8-2 ats record as ooc chalk of 10/less, and having better '21 stats on d so far, nd is 7-1 su/6-2 ats on the road when they have the better record. notre dame.
4. (2-1) SAN JOSE STATE
AT (2-1)
WESTERN MICHIGAN -3 (OPEN PK)
2 weeks ago the spartans were at usc. last week? at hawaii. this week? kalamazoo, which means in the space of 10 days san jose st's players will have flown close to 8500 miles. the visitors are 4-8 ats on the ooc road, 0-4 su/ats off a win. the broncos enter off upsetting pitt, which is 8100 miles less travel. western michigan
5. (1-2) BOISE STATE
AT (3-0)
UTAH STATE +9 (OPEN +12)
why are these 2 mountain west teams kicking off at 12 noon edt??? jeez. worst start for boise in 14 yrs tho they've dominated this series (17-1 su). usu is just 3-9 ats as home dogs, but unbeaten game 4 home dogs off a dog win are 5-1-1 ats lately. utah state.
6. (2-1)
MISSOURI AT (3-0) BOSTON COLLEGE +2 (OPEN -1)
bc will be playing their backup qb, and the eagles' win are vs colgate, crest and pepsodent. ok, umass and temple (colgate is real). mizzou got run over by uk's ground game a couple weeks back, and bc can run the ball, but the tigers are averaging 40 ppg/533 yds pg. missouri.
7. (2-1) #21 NORTH CAROLINA
AT (1-2)
GEORGIA TECH +12 (OPEN +13)
the tar heels offense got lost in blacksburg, but was found vs uva. tech meanwhile shocked lots of folks threatening to upset clemson. this game is not at bobby dodd stadium but down the street at mercedes benz stadium. jackets are just 3-6 ats as home dogs, but 5-0-1 ats in neutral site games, while unc is just 1-5 ats as road chalk. I'll take a chance on the ramblin wreck.
8. (2-1) #24 UCLA
AT (2-1)
STANFORD +5.5 (OPEN +4)
can I brag that I thought the bruins would be upset by fresno st last week? ucla was outgained by nearly 200 yds and was lucky to still have a lead late in the 4th qtr. plus stanford has owned this series of late (12-1 su). for the cardinal, after finishing the season on the road for 4 games and opening '21 w/3 away games, this is the first home game in nearly a year, and just the 2nd (they only hosted 1 on the farm in '20) since '19. they're 11-2 ats as home dogs but stanford is just 8-13 ats of late overall vs pac 12 foes, 0-3 ats vs opponents off a su favorite loss. ucla is also 0-6 ats as road chalk. too many points to give. stanford.
9. (3-0) #25
KANSAS STATE AT (3-0) OKLAHOMA STATE -6 (OPEN -9)
cowboys enter off a nice defensive effort in the win at boise st (held broncos to 64 yds rushing I think), but they'll have their hands full w/a ksu run game that had 269 in their win over nevada. despite being w/o starting qb skylar thompson (knee injury 2 weeks ago), the wildcats are 19-6 ats in this series (even tho they've lost the last 2 su), 7-0 ats getting 4+, and osu is just 5-12 ats off a su/ats dog win. love this one. kansas state.
10. (2-1)
LSU AT (2-1) MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 (OPEN +4)
nice revenge spot here for lsu, who opened defense of their '19 nat'l title by being upset 44-34 by msu. bulldogs look much improved on d, but the tigers already have 17 sacks this year. it's been 30 yrs since miss st beat lsu twice in a row. I'll follow that trend. lsu.
11. (3-0)
TEXAS TECHAT (2-1) TEXAS -8.5 (OPEN -13)
71st mtg in the series, one that the 'horns have dominated historically (53-17 su) and recently (9-2 su/8-3 ats). but last year tech led by 15 late in the 4th qtr before losing in ot 63-56. texas is just 6-15-1 ats in austin lately vs big 12 foes w/better records, and they're still trying to figure out their qb situation, while tech has uo transfer tyler shough, who's looked good. texas tech.
12. (3-0)
SOUTHERN METHODIST AT (2-0) TEXAS CHRISTIAN -10 (OPEN -10)
another 1 of the old swc rivalries happening in the metroplex... the 100th meeting in the battle for the iron skillet. only the 2nd time this century I believe that they've met when both were unbeaten. visitor in this series has covered 6 straight. mustangs have an oklahoma transfer at qb (tanner mordecai) who already has 16 td passes this season (for comparisons, my fave all time buckeye qb, rex kern, tossed 19 td passes... in his entire career. lol). horned frogs are 5-0-1 ats in the series w/revenge, but 10 is too many. smu.
13. (2-1) #14 IOWA STATE
AT (3-0)
BAYLOR +7 (OPEN +7)
trivia question... who is the only team in cfb who's ranked in the top 10 for stats on both defense and offense? introducing your baylor bears. they're also 19-2 su/16-5 ats at home off a win when they have the better record. the bears have covered the last 3 in the series too. the cyclones are solid in every phase but I think this one stays close. baylor.
14. (2-1) #9
CLEMSON AT (2-1) NORTH CAROLINA STATE +10 (OPEN +12)
the home team is just 7-16 ats when these 2 play each other. tigers are painful on the offense but inflict pain on defense, having yet to allow an offensive td. wolfpack is in a double revenge spot here and looks much improved, but cu has played the much tougher schedule so far, plus they're 12-6-1 ats as road chalk the last 3 years. the public is dissing them, which is another reason I think they're a good bet. clemson.
15. (3-0) #7
TEXAS A&MVS (3-0) #16 ARKANSAS +5.5 (OPEN +5)
AT AT&T STADIUM, ARLINGTON TX
the last of the triple play of old southwest conference rivals. since both landed in the sec, the aggies have won 9 straight but the hogs have covered the last 3. arkansas is also 6-0 ats lately as dogs of 17/less. a&m is 18-8 ats as chalk. normally I'd lean toward the dog here, but at a neutral site, I'll lean w/the more talented team. texas a&m.
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