WEEK 5"I know you've been embezzelin' my pizzas, and I will catch you eventually. And when I do, I swear ta God, you will neva deliver pizzas in this town again!" in honor of this week's movie quote, I'm titling my prognostications 'dude... here are my picks'...
FRIDAY, 1OCT211. (4-0) #5 IOWA AT (4-0)
MARYLAND +4 (OPEN +3).
loss. ok, 4-0 home dogs are now 12-2. lolsome competing trends here. terps are 4-0 for the 1st time in 5 yrs, and qb tagovailoa has been electric (1340 yds passing, 76%, 10 bds vs 1 int), but iowa is allowing just 270 yds and 11 ppg (85 yd rushing avg) and are a sparking 19-5-1 ats as road chalk lately. the boys w/the test pattern helmets/flag are just 3-6 ats as big 10 home dogs, but 4-2 ats on week night games and are outgaining their foes by 200+/game. both have quality wins over big 12 foes (hawkeyes over iowa st., maryland over wvu). iowa as to not just travel on a short week but also has a huge matchup on the horizon vs psu. my clincher? cfb nerd stat #1-since 2014, the last 13 times a 4-0 or better home underdog has gone up vs a 4-0/better opponent, the home dog has covered 12. maryland.
SATURDAY, 2OCT212. (4-0)
BOSTON COLLEGE AT (2-2) #25 CLEMSON -16 (OPEN -15)
lots of folks are burying the tigers, who before last week had lost just 2 acc games the last 5+ seasons. before the season began clemson was -28 in this game, so that kind of movement worries me some. that said, cu has been outgained by every fbs foe so far this yr (386-214 by nc state last wk in a game that shouldn't have gone to ot), they don't have the playmakers on offense they have lately, their o-line is struggling,(unreal stat-clemson's offense is last in the acc in both total yds and points per game) their defense is still top notch but beat up (3 starters out w/injuries), the eagles are running the ball extremely well (200+/game, out rushed mizzou 276-88 last wk in a ot win), bc is 16-6-1 as road dogs, 9-1 ats as dogs w/acc revenge. I think the tigers find a way to win, but tough to give 2 td's+ w/those numbers. boston college.
3. (3-1) LOUISVILLE AT (4-0) #24
WAKE FOREST -6.5 (OPEN -7)
you could have won some serious $$ in august saying bc and wake might be the class of the acc. 'ville has won 3 straight after losing to ol'miss, and built a 31-7 lead last week before holding on to beat fsu 31-23. dabo swinney has said more than once that wf under dave clawson has been the best-coached acc opponent he faces. this yr thx in part to the super senior clause, the demon deacons returned all 11 starters on offense and its been showing (nearly 39 ppg). cards are 4-10-1 ats as road dogs, 3-13-1 ats after su dog wins. wake is 11-6 ats as home chalk, 7-0 ats the last 7 at home vs fbs opponents. wake forest.
4. (3-1) #11 OHIO STATE AT (3-1)
RUTGERS +15 (OPEN +17)
by my unofficial numbers, there are a handful of teams who've covered all their games so far this year; arkansas, bowling green (that's right, the falcons), cincinnati, ol' miss, texas-san antonio..... and the state university of new jersey. rutgers is actually 9-4 ats since schiano returned as coach last year, and his defense not only suffocated the ugly hats a week ago (#1 rushing offense held to 112 yds, 0 2nd half pts and just 2 2nd half 1st downs in a 20-13 um win), they're allowing just 276 yds/14 ppg. no doubt the tosu offense is a couple steps up, but if the scarlet knights can do half of what they did last week to frosh rb treyvon henderson and the buckeye run game, forcing qb c.j. stroud to shoulder a bigger load with his sore right shoulder, this could get interesting. ru has covered the last 2 in this short series. bucks are a $$-making 24-16-1 ats since '12 as road chalk, but as a head coach schiano is 10-2-1 ats as a double digit dog vs foes w/a winning record. until the buckeye d can prove they can slow down a fbs offense... in the words of george h.w. bush.... not gonna do it. rutgers.
5. (3-0) #7
CINCINNATI AT (4-0) #9 NOTRE DAME +2.5 (OPEN -1)
never thought I'd see the day where the irish were a home dog to uc. ever. the betting trends favoring nd are many; they've won their last 26 straight home games, 21-10-1 ats getting points under the shadow of touchdown jesus, 10-1 ats as a home dog when they have a .800+ record. that said, last week's 41-13 romp over wisconsin might be the most deceiving cfb final score in years. the irish were down 13-10 early in the 4th before getting a kickoff return to the house, 3 picks (2 returned for td's) for 31 straight points in the last 14:00 of the game. the badgers held nd to 242 total yds (just 3 yds rushing on 32 attempts!!). the irish o-line has allowed 20 sacks in 4 games, and starting qb coan is still questionable (physically as well as, imho, talent-wise. ha). could not be happier for luke fickell and what he's done w/the bearcats, and a cincy win will do tosu no favors in both the playoff race and 'who's the best cfb team in ohio' question which has had the same answer for over a century. that said, desmond ritter will be the best qb on the field, even vs a very solid irish defense. cincinnati.
6. (4-0) #3 OREGON AT (2-2)
STANFORD +8 (OPEN +8)
I watched the first half of uo-arizona last week before falling asleep, and the ducks certainly did not look like the team I saw physically win the upper hand here in columbus 3 weeks ago. 'zona had 31 st downs (uo had 17) and had a 435-393 total yds edge. but 5 turnovers doomed them in a 41-19 oregon win. stanford stumbled out of the blocks and couldn't catch up to ucla, losing 35-24. but in this series, the cardinal is 3-1 ats vs uo when they're unbeaten, 6-3 ats getting points on the farm, and 7-0 ats as home dogs vs undefeated foes of late. stanford.
7. (4-0)
OLE MISS AT (4-0) #1 ALABAMA -14.5 (OPEN -17.5)
in '20 the rebels hung w/the tide for 3+ qtrs (tied 42-42) before alabama pulled away for a 63-48 win. this year's tide has backed up a little on offense (especially the run game, at least so far) and ol' miss has looked a touch stronger on d. lots of trends favoring the boys from oxford too; the rebs are 11-5 ats in the series, 6-2 ats in tuscaloosa, 4-0 ats as 14+ sec dogs. plus the tide is 0-4 ats lately off a ooc home game. matt corral has looked good (9 td's, 0 int). so has bryce young, but I think 2 td's is 4 or 5 pts too many. mississippi.
8. (4-0) #21 BAYLOR AT (4-0) #19
OKLAHOMA STATE -4 (OPEN -5)
bears are 5-2 su/4-2 ats of late in the series. baylor beat iowa st last week despite being outgained by nearly 200 yds. cowboys are 9-1 su/8-2 ats as home chalk vs the bears, and spanked them 42-3 a year ago so revenge is in play here. will lean slightly w/the home team who I think has the better d. oklahoma state.
9. (4-0) #8 ARKANSAS AT (4-0) #2
GEORGIA -18.5 (OPEN -18)
vegas certainly doesn't appear to believe in arkansas in this top 10 matchup. 1st time the hogs have played the dawgs as an unbeaten since '03. but on the heels of a physical win vs texas a&m, a brutally physical #1 uga defense is a tall task. even though the hogs are good (#12) on that side of the ball. but their qb jefferson is banged up, and the thought of a backup carrying the team to another upset win seems farfetched to me. plus (cfb nerd stat #2) says that in game 5 matchups of 4-0 teams, a home favorite allowing fewer than 19.5 ppg
is 11-0 su/9-2 ats since 1980 if they scored more than 30 points in their last game. you just can't make those kind of facts up.
. georgia.
10. (3-1) TEXAS AT (2-1)
TCU +5 (OPEN -1)
'horns are off back/back blow out wins, but have the sooners up next. texas is just 2-9 ats before the red river shootout (shoot, can't call it that) and the frogs are 12-7 ats lately as home dogs. both teams have lots of offense, not much defense. smells like a backdoor cover. tcu.
11. (3-1) #10 FLORIDA AT (4-0)
KENTUCKY +8.5 (OPEN +8)
key game to stay in the sec east race. uf is 33-1 su vs the 'cats but uk has covered the last 4. great matchup of the gators' ground attack (326/game) vs a stronger than recent history wildcats rush d (88/game), but I think uk may have better success running vs uf. florida is just 3-7 ats vs double revenge, while the home team is 12-2 ats playing as an unbeaten lately, 8-0 ats vs foes off a su/ats win. plus (cfb nerd stat #3) .700+ conference home dogs of 6+ off back/back wins, vs opponents off a su/ats win, are 46-20-1 ats since 1980. upset? kentucky.
12. (4-0) #6
OKLAHOMA AT (3-1) KANSAS STATE +10.5 (OPEN +12)
sooners are actually the team in a double revenge role here. ksu is typically a great home dog (5-1 ats lately) also, but w/starting qb skylar thompson still questionable and the backup qb out for sure, I'm not sure how the wildcats will score on what's become a solid ou defense. oklahoma.
13. (3-1) TEXAS TECH AT (2-2)
WEST VIRGINIA -7.5 (OPEN -7)
wvu is off not only a tough loss to oklahoma but has back/back losses to tech, and the 'eers are 16-8 ats lately off a loss. red raiders' starting qb is also banged up. west virginia.
14. (3-1) #22
AUBURN AT (3-1) LSU -3.5 (OPEN -4)
war eagle has looked shaky on offense in a tough road loss at psu and a near shocking upset to georgia state, where lsu transfer qb t.j. finley replace starter bo nix to save the day. bayou tigers are 8-1-1 ats w/sec revenge (lost 48-11 on the plains in '20), 6-1 as sec home chalk of 7/less. but lsu has a ton of injuries to deal w/, and I think finley might make some more drama. auburn.
15. (4-0) #14 MICHIGAN AT (1-2)
WISCONSIN -2 (OPEN -4)
I shared above how bizarre the badgers' blowout loss to notre dame was. what's been bizarre so far for um in '21 is that they've yet to trail in a game; 1st time that's happened in the opening 4 games of a season since going 10-0-1 in '73. despite being held to just 112 yds rushing by rutgers, the wolverines are still #5 in the nation running the ball. uw meanwhile leads the nation in rushing defense (23 yds/game, 1.0 yds/attempt). and if michigan can't run the ball, I'm not sure how they put up points at camp randall. um is in a double revenge role here (lost 49-11 a year ago), but every other trend goes the other way. home team in this series is 10-2 su/8-4 ats. as a head coach jim harbaugh is 10-15 ats as an unbeaten vs league foes, 0-3 ats when those foes are off a su favorite loss. uw is 5-0-1 ats off a 3+ loss playing an unbeaten opponent. and since '95, they are 5-0 su/ats at home when they are under .500 playing an opponent that's .500+. came in thinking the ugly hats would roll but now I think the favorite pulls off the upset. lol. wisconsin.
16. (3-1)
ARIZONA STATE AT (3-1) #20 UCLA -3.5 (OPEN -3.5)
another double revenge role here, this time for asu. sun devils are 6-2 ats as road dogs, 5-0 ats as dogs of 7/less, while the bruins are just 3-9 ats as home chalk. arizona state.
fyi it was 8 carries for 41 yds I believe in the 1st qtr. 
................................
................................
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
