WEEK 9“Anybody can fly a plane, now here: I'll check you out. Put your little hands on the wheel there. Now put your feet on the rudder. There. Who says this ol' boy can't fly this ol' plane? Now I'm gonna make us some old fashions the old fashioned way, the way dear old Dad used to.”
“What if something happens?”
“What could happen to an old fashion?”I need to start watching more movies. have no idea.
THE GAMES1. (6-1) #9
IOWA AT (4-3) WISCONSIN -3.5, (OPEN -3).
loss.no team has improved more on offense this year than the badgers. hear me out... vs fbs competition (not counting eastern mich and army), the badgers have gone from scoring 10, to 13, to 17 (all losses) to 24, and then 30 last week vs purdue. why is everyone still on qb graham mertz's back?
uw is just 7-14 ats since '18 as home chalk, including not covering the last 6 in a row. but they are 7-0 ats as favorites in camp randall of 12/less w/revenge off back/back wins. hawkeyes are 5-2 ats as road dogs lately, 6-0 ats off a home fave loss, and despite the loss to purdue 2 weeks ago still allowing just 90 yds/game rushing. until mertz can carry his weight via passing, I have a tough time backing him vs solid opponents. iowa regains control of the big 10 west.
2. (7-0) #6 MICHIGAN AT (7-0) #8
MICHIGAN STATE +4.5, (OPEN +2)
win.both these 2 hurt the checkbook last week, the wolverines covering by just 2 points, and sparty winning 20-15 as -4.5 at indiana. jeez. biggest stakes in this rivalry in over half a century. ugly hats are just 2-9 ats the last 11 in the series, though this is the smallest line since 2013. they're also 4-8-1 ats of late as road chalk. both teams have made huge turnarounds from '20. both teams run well, both defend the run well. um defends the pass better than msu. 3 games this year sparty has won on the scoreboard while losing the total yds battle. that doesn't happen often. cfb nerd stat #1 - 6-0/better underdogs vs 6-0/better opponents are 52-27-4 ats since '80. and dogs in that scenario off a su/ats win? 26-7-3 ats. I think michigan wins, but michigan state covers.
3. (4-3) LOUISVILLE AT (5-2)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE -6.5, (OPEN -7).
winwolfpack cost me some $$ vs the canes last week, the bastards.
they are 12-5 ats as home faves, 5-0 ats after playing miami. cards cost me cash too (wasn't a good week for the bank account) by winning/covering vs boston college. they're just 4-11 ats getting points on the road of late. nc state.
4. (3-4)
MIAMI (FLA) AT (6-1) #17 PITTSBURGH -10, (OPEN -10).
winand yes, these 2 hit my wallet too. did I mention last week was bad?? canes are 5-2 ats as road dogs lately, 5-1 ats vs pitt, 21-3 su in this series. panthers surprised me by handling clemson 27-17, and you can't pick it when playing kenny pickett (1 int vs 23 td's). but his top wr is out w/a concussion, and giving 10 is too much imho. cfb nerd stat #2 - teams off a clemson win are just 9-15 ats the following week. university of miami.
5. (6-2) VIRGINIA AT (6-2) #25
BYU -2.5, (OPEN -1)
uva has won/covered 4 straight, but lost its last 10 on the road vs ranked foes. can current cavs/ex-byu coach bronco mendenhall change that returning to provo? virginia is allowing 198 yds/game rushing. not a good sign on the road, if I'm reading my book of mormon right. brigham young.
6. (5-3) UCLA AT (4-3)
UTAH -6.5, (OPEN -3.5).
winbruins enter the game 2-3 in home games, 3-0 su/ats on the road. but qb dorian thompson will robinson crusoe got banged up at the end of the oregon game last week (hence the jump in the line). utes have won 4 straight in the series, 10-4 ats as home chalk, and 7-0 ats as home faves of 18/less vs .500+ opponents off a loss. utah.
7. (6-1) #12 KENTUCKY AT (4-3)
MISSISSIPPI STATE +1.5, (OPEN -2).
win'cats had a bye week to lick their wounds after the 30-13 loss to uga, while the bulldogs bounced back from a 'bama bludgeoning by beating vandy 49-6. 2 of uk's better d-linemen are out w/injuries, 1-4 ats lately w/rest, and they still haven't found a passing game to compliment the run. msu has a passing game behind rogers, in addition to a much improved defense. wrong team favored here. mississippi state.
8. (5-3) TEXAS TECH AT (8-0) #4
OKLAHOMA -20 (OPEN -22).
winhasn't been pretty but the sooners remain unbeaten after surviving a surprising scare at kansas, now meeting a tech team they've beaten 9 straight times (6-3 ats), the last 2 by a combined score of 117-44. ou is averaging 263 yds rushing the last 3 games, not a good sign w/a red raiders defense allowing 210+/game on the ground. you wonder if the air came out of texas tech's season in the 2nd half collapse last week at k-state, prompting the firing of coach matt wells. oklahoma
9. (5-2) #20
PENN STATE AT (6-1) #5 OHIO STATE -18.5, (OPEN -12.5).
winthere's been no recent high profile series in cfb that's been as thrilling as this one, even though the bucks have won 8 of the last 9. average margin of victory the last 5 yrs has been less than a td, 2 of them 1 point differences. nitts have covered 4 of the last 5. bucks are just 7-6 ats as home chalk under day, though they are 8-0 ats as -18+ vs foes off a su favorite loss. but my alma mater is also just 3-13 ats off back/back wins vs big 10 opponents off back/back losses. psu is 3-2 ats as a road dog of late, they get their qb back from injury, they are solid in the defensive secondary and they are backed up against the corner. do the usc/lsu/franklin rumors defeat them or galvanize them? too many points to give. pennsylvania state.
10. (7-0) #19 SOUTHERN METHODIST AT (6-1)
HOUSTON PK, (OPEN -4).
winbattle for the top of the aac west. classic matchup of smu's productive offense behind qb tanner mordecai (525 total yds/game) vs a cougar defense who's had 18 sacks the last 4 weeks. mustangs have won 4 straight in the series. revenge. houston.
11. (4-3)
TEXAS AT (6-1) #16 BAYLOR -2.5, (OPEN PICK).
losslonghorns have had 2 weeks to suffer after 2 dramatic losses to ou/okie st. texas is 10-4 ats as road dogs, 7-1 ats away vs opponents off back/back wins. bears are 1-6 ats off a bye, 0-5 ats as chalk of 2+ off back/back wins. texas.
12. (6-1) #10 MISSISSIPPI AT (5-2) #18
AUBURN -2.5, (OPEN -1).
winthere are 2 teams who control their fate in the sec west. alabama... and auburn. tigers are off a bye after beating arkansas 38-23, while the rebels have won 3 straight since the loss to the tide. tigers are 6-3 ats as home chalk, 5-0 ats as favorites w/rest. ol' miss is just 4-7 ats of late getting points on the road, 8-1 ats as away dogs off a su/ats home win, 2-13 ats off back/back wins. war eagle is 17-4 su/13-6-2 ats in this series (6-1-1 ats off a su/ats win) and I think they have the stronger defense. plus 2 of rebel qb matt corral's wr's are banged up. auburn.
13. (7-0) #1 GEORGIA VS (4-3)
FLORIDA +14, (OPEN +14) – AT JACKSONVILLE.
loss. freakin gators. lolnot that jacksonville is exactly an exotic destination, but someday I'd like to get down and see the cocktail party in person. 3rd time since '14 that there's been a double digit line in this game (uga won/coverd in '17, lost in '14 giving 10+). et has already shared the 3 year cycles lately in the series, though this year I think that's motivating more for the dawgs re revenge (gators are 0-5 ats as an underdog vs a revenging opponent) but uf can redeem a disappointing season w/an upset win. curious that both teams still have some qb questions coming in, but there's no question about the dawgs' defense (holding opposing offenses 189 yds below their season averages) and florida's (allowed 321 yds rushing to lsu). that said, as a head coach dan mullen is 7-1-1 ats getting 7+ vs undefeated foes. uf should be the looser team here, but if more talented uga runs the ball like lsu did 2 weeks ago, the gators may only have 15-20 minutes of possession vs that defense. I can't get over that the gators are 7-3-1 ats as underdogs since '18. georgia has had 2 backdoor cover ats losses this year. make it 3. florida.
14. (4-3)
NORTH CAROLINA AT (6-1) #11 NOTRE DAME -3.5, (OPEN -4).
loss. on the 11 in the last minutes to get a back door cover... and the heels blow itso riddle me this... the irish are ranked 11th, the tar heels unranked w/3 losses. the game is in south bend, and nd is only favored by a fg?? hmm. notre dame is an awful 1-10 ats as chalk of 24/less vs revenging foes (unc lost 31-17 last yr) and 11-18 ats as home chalk vs acc opponents. carolina has topped 38 pts 4 times this season. north carolina.
15. (6-2)
FRESNO STATE AT (7-0) #21 SAN DIEGO STATE -1, (OPEN PICK).
best start for the aztecs since '75, and they want to prove that cincy isn't the only non-power 5 team who deserves cfb playoff looks. they do have good wins over utah and air force. but fresno st. beat ucla and should've beaten oregon. the bulldogs are 10-3 ats since '17 as road dogs. san diego st is a mediocre 6-8 ats giving points at home and have actually been outgained in 4 of their wins so far. their defense is fantastic, but fsu has a better quality balance. fresno state.