Post by mscott59 on Dec 3, 2021 17:44:03 GMT -5
8-7
first, many thanks walt for running things this fall.
“And here I'm lying through my teeth, I mean I, I can't tell Louise that I was in jail and that I rob and steal and never did an honest day's work in my life 'cause, you know, a lot of people hold those things against you.”
I think it's a woody allen movie but don't know which one. at least it reads like something he'd say in a movie.
THE GAMES
FRIDAY
CUSA CG
1. (8-4) WESTERN KENTUCKY AT (11-1) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO +1, (OPEN +1). win
wku's last loss was to utsa (52-46 on 10/9) in a game they outgained the roadrunners by 106 yds. hilltoppers haven't lost since, and bring the better offense here. utsa has the edge on d, and gets to host the game which I think is significant. was wondering if there are any trends w/same season revengers in ccg's. it's happened 94 times in d-1, w/the revenger going 46-48 su/48-46 ats so basically a wash. but... if the revenger is facing a .916/better foe, (cfb nerd stat #1) the numbers go to 2-17 su/6-13 ats. beep-beep.
PAC12 CG
2. (10-2) #10 OREGON VS (9-3) #14 UTAH -3, (OPEN -3) IN LAS VEGAS, NV. win/side; loss/total
3. OVER/UNDER 59.5, (OPEN 58.5)
another rematch after the utes shot down the ducks 38-7 2 weeks ago. it's also a rematch from 2 yrs ago in the title game, won by uo 37-15. oregon is 3-0 in pac 12 ccg's, but utah has finished the season much stronger (+235 ypg on average vs last 4 opponents) and is holding foes 61 yds/game below their season average. w/o the cfb playoff pressure I think the ducks will be looser, but ute qb cam rising is 8-1 su since taking over as the starter. adds up to a utah win to me in a higher scoring game.
SATURDAY
B12 CG
4. (10-2) #9 BAYLOR VS (11-1) #5 OKLAHOMA STATE -5.5, (OPEN -6) IN ARLINGTON, TX. loss/side; loss/total
5. OVER/UNDER 46.5, (OPEN 48.5)
rematch #3. despite being the bedlam favorite, the cowboys still exercised some demons in beating oklahoma 37-33. only a 3 pt loss to iowa st kept osu from an unbeaten regular season. they're the only cfb team w/2 wins over top 10 foes (ou, baylor). bears have had a great season, but their qb is still iffy w/a hamstring pull. chalk in the big 12 $$-maker is 7-2 ats of late, and not only does baylor fall under nerd stat #1's trend, there's a trend tightener (cfb nerd stat #2); if the revenger's .916+ foe is off back/back wins, the regular season loser is 0-15 su/3-12 ats. icing on the cake is the cowboy defense giving up 277 yds/16.4 pts/game. cowboys w/a late score pushing the total over.
MAC CG
6. (7-5) KENT STATE VS (8-4) NORTHERN ILLINOIS +3, (OPEN +2) IN DETROIT, MI. win
rematch #4. the golden flashes won an entertaining 52-47 game a month ago, breaking a 10 game losing streak to the huskies. that game had 1344 total yards combined. jeez. niu got blown out last week mainly due to resting starting qb/sparty transfer all-name hof'er rocky lombardi. kent survived a winner take all game vs miami 48-47 in ot to qualify. the team w/the better record has covered 5 straight mac title games. northern illinois covers in an entertaining high scoring game.
MTN WEST CG
7. (9-3) UTAH STATE VS (11-1) #19 SAN DIEGO STATE -6, (OPEN -4.5) IN CARSON, CA. win
the end of a 3 week losing streak for me started by backing the aztecs last week in their 27-16 win over boise st. but the aggies have won 4 games su this season as a dog. and the dog has covered 6 of the last 7 mwc title games. sd-state has a top 15 defense, but their offense ranks 110th, which is, uh, rank. vs common foes in '21, usu is +141 yds per game, the aztecs are -7. utah state.
SUN BELT CG
8. (10-2) APPALACHIAN STATE AT (11-1) #20 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +3, (OPEN +3). win
rematch #5. this is the 4th sbc title game, and louisiana (sorry bryan-lol) has been in all of them. it's the 3rd for appy state. in october the cajuns won a blowout 41-13 thx in part to 4 mountaineer turnovers that led to 3 td's. since then asu has won 6 straight and averaged 200+/game rushing. unlike some more well-known coaches making moves this week, billy napier is hanging around w/his team before moving on to gainesville, and as a home dog the cajuns are 13-8-1 ats. plus they're +11 in turnover ratio this season (appy st is break even). how can the team who won by 4 td's be a 3 point underdog, at home? louisiana.
SEC CG
9. (12-0) #1 GEORGIA VS (11-1) #4 ALABAMA +6.5, (OPEN +4.5) IN ATLANTA, GA. win/side; loss/total
10. OVER/UNDER 50.5, (OPEN 54.5)
can't get much more dramatic than this one. uga has had a dream season... a suffocating d that's held every foe under 17 pts (1st time in d-1 since '79), an under appreciated offense featuring maybe the best pair of tight ends in cfb. standing in the way of a first ever 13-0 regular season... saban. the guy who's won 6 straight over the dawgs, the guy who stomped on past sec/cfb playoff titles in heart stopping fashion. the last time alabama was an underdog? 2015, vs georgia, in a game they slid by 38-10. the tide has had numerous woes this year trying to run the ball, to have healthy rb's available to run the ball, and keeping qb bryce young clean in the pocket (38 sacks, 7 by auburn last week). that said, imho the tide's d is a better one than clemson's, who held georgia w/o a td in the season opener, and has held 5 of its last 6 opponents under their season total yards average (war eagle had just 159 total yds last week). georgia close, in a game I hope doesn't go into overtime.
AAC CG
11. (11-1) #16 HOUSTON AT (12-0) #3 CINCINNATI -10.5, (OPEN -10). loss
one is unblemished, the other has won 11 straight after one bad half in their season opener vs texas tech. the qb stats are virtually identical. uc has the better rb, uh the better wr, the defenses are comparably stingy. but one has the home field advantage, where the bearcats have won 26 straight. as high profile as the sec title game deservedly is, the more historic one might be at nippert stadium. uc is 10-4 su/10-3-1 ats of late vs the cougars. and I think under dana holgorson uh tends to play very undisciplined, while under luke fickell the opposite is true for uc. I think cincy wins, makes history by making the playoffs, chirps about it to the northeast up I-71n for all eternity, but I'll take the half point hook. houston.
ACC CG
12. 10-2) #17 PITT VS 10-2) #18 WAKE FOREST +3, (OPEN +4) IN CHARLOTTE, NC. win/side; loss/total
13. OVER/UNDER 72.5, OPEN 49)
for the first time in the short history of the cfb playoffs there will not be an acc representative. shouldn't take anything away though from what should be an entertaining game. wake's sam hartman and pitt's heisman contender kenny pickett have combined for 84 td passes this year. both have offensive firepower, but the demon deacons have struggled vs the run (5.1 ypc) while the panthers have been much stingier (2.9 ypc). wake is 11-16 ats of last as single digit dogs. the panthers are 14-5 su/ats as chalk of 5/less. I think this is the best bet of the weekend. pittsburgh. over.
BIG10 CG
14. (10-2) #15 IOWA VS (11-1) #2 MICHIGAN -11, (OPEN -10.5) IN INDIANAPOLIS, IN. loss/side; win/total
15. OVER/UNDER 43.5, (OPEN 44)
since the tosu-um game got moved to the series finale in 1935, there's only been 3 times the ugly hats have played a game after the game. '42 vs Iowa-don't know why-, in '86 at hawaii (bo wanted to treat team/fan/supporters to at least 1 warm weather destination), and a repeat trip there in '98. but this year, for the first time ever, the game after the game has a lot more meaning. um holds almost every statistical advantage over iowa (though the hawkeyes are very strong vs the run, and excel at creating turnovers). but... the chalk in the big 10 ccg is just 2-8 ats of late. iowa is 15-8-1 ats as a dog in this series. teams entering a ccg off a win of 14+ are just 19-29 ats lately. the hawkeyes are 5-0 ats getting 7+ when owning a record of .750+. harbaugh having to handle a hangover? hawkeyes keep this interesting.
first, many thanks walt for running things this fall.
WEEK 14
“And here I'm lying through my teeth, I mean I, I can't tell Louise that I was in jail and that I rob and steal and never did an honest day's work in my life 'cause, you know, a lot of people hold those things against you.”
I think it's a woody allen movie but don't know which one. at least it reads like something he'd say in a movie.
THE GAMES
FRIDAY
CUSA CG
1. (8-4) WESTERN KENTUCKY AT (11-1) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO +1, (OPEN +1). win
wku's last loss was to utsa (52-46 on 10/9) in a game they outgained the roadrunners by 106 yds. hilltoppers haven't lost since, and bring the better offense here. utsa has the edge on d, and gets to host the game which I think is significant. was wondering if there are any trends w/same season revengers in ccg's. it's happened 94 times in d-1, w/the revenger going 46-48 su/48-46 ats so basically a wash. but... if the revenger is facing a .916/better foe, (cfb nerd stat #1) the numbers go to 2-17 su/6-13 ats. beep-beep.
PAC12 CG
2. (10-2) #10 OREGON VS (9-3) #14 UTAH -3, (OPEN -3) IN LAS VEGAS, NV. win/side; loss/total
3. OVER/UNDER 59.5, (OPEN 58.5)
another rematch after the utes shot down the ducks 38-7 2 weeks ago. it's also a rematch from 2 yrs ago in the title game, won by uo 37-15. oregon is 3-0 in pac 12 ccg's, but utah has finished the season much stronger (+235 ypg on average vs last 4 opponents) and is holding foes 61 yds/game below their season average. w/o the cfb playoff pressure I think the ducks will be looser, but ute qb cam rising is 8-1 su since taking over as the starter. adds up to a utah win to me in a higher scoring game.
SATURDAY
B12 CG
4. (10-2) #9 BAYLOR VS (11-1) #5 OKLAHOMA STATE -5.5, (OPEN -6) IN ARLINGTON, TX. loss/side; loss/total
5. OVER/UNDER 46.5, (OPEN 48.5)
rematch #3. despite being the bedlam favorite, the cowboys still exercised some demons in beating oklahoma 37-33. only a 3 pt loss to iowa st kept osu from an unbeaten regular season. they're the only cfb team w/2 wins over top 10 foes (ou, baylor). bears have had a great season, but their qb is still iffy w/a hamstring pull. chalk in the big 12 $$-maker is 7-2 ats of late, and not only does baylor fall under nerd stat #1's trend, there's a trend tightener (cfb nerd stat #2); if the revenger's .916+ foe is off back/back wins, the regular season loser is 0-15 su/3-12 ats. icing on the cake is the cowboy defense giving up 277 yds/16.4 pts/game. cowboys w/a late score pushing the total over.
MAC CG
6. (7-5) KENT STATE VS (8-4) NORTHERN ILLINOIS +3, (OPEN +2) IN DETROIT, MI. win
rematch #4. the golden flashes won an entertaining 52-47 game a month ago, breaking a 10 game losing streak to the huskies. that game had 1344 total yards combined. jeez. niu got blown out last week mainly due to resting starting qb/sparty transfer all-name hof'er rocky lombardi. kent survived a winner take all game vs miami 48-47 in ot to qualify. the team w/the better record has covered 5 straight mac title games. northern illinois covers in an entertaining high scoring game.
MTN WEST CG
7. (9-3) UTAH STATE VS (11-1) #19 SAN DIEGO STATE -6, (OPEN -4.5) IN CARSON, CA. win
the end of a 3 week losing streak for me started by backing the aztecs last week in their 27-16 win over boise st. but the aggies have won 4 games su this season as a dog. and the dog has covered 6 of the last 7 mwc title games. sd-state has a top 15 defense, but their offense ranks 110th, which is, uh, rank. vs common foes in '21, usu is +141 yds per game, the aztecs are -7. utah state.
SUN BELT CG
8. (10-2) APPALACHIAN STATE AT (11-1) #20 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +3, (OPEN +3). win
rematch #5. this is the 4th sbc title game, and louisiana (sorry bryan-lol) has been in all of them. it's the 3rd for appy state. in october the cajuns won a blowout 41-13 thx in part to 4 mountaineer turnovers that led to 3 td's. since then asu has won 6 straight and averaged 200+/game rushing. unlike some more well-known coaches making moves this week, billy napier is hanging around w/his team before moving on to gainesville, and as a home dog the cajuns are 13-8-1 ats. plus they're +11 in turnover ratio this season (appy st is break even). how can the team who won by 4 td's be a 3 point underdog, at home? louisiana.
SEC CG
9. (12-0) #1 GEORGIA VS (11-1) #4 ALABAMA +6.5, (OPEN +4.5) IN ATLANTA, GA. win/side; loss/total
10. OVER/UNDER 50.5, (OPEN 54.5)
can't get much more dramatic than this one. uga has had a dream season... a suffocating d that's held every foe under 17 pts (1st time in d-1 since '79), an under appreciated offense featuring maybe the best pair of tight ends in cfb. standing in the way of a first ever 13-0 regular season... saban. the guy who's won 6 straight over the dawgs, the guy who stomped on past sec/cfb playoff titles in heart stopping fashion. the last time alabama was an underdog? 2015, vs georgia, in a game they slid by 38-10. the tide has had numerous woes this year trying to run the ball, to have healthy rb's available to run the ball, and keeping qb bryce young clean in the pocket (38 sacks, 7 by auburn last week). that said, imho the tide's d is a better one than clemson's, who held georgia w/o a td in the season opener, and has held 5 of its last 6 opponents under their season total yards average (war eagle had just 159 total yds last week). georgia close, in a game I hope doesn't go into overtime.
AAC CG
11. (11-1) #16 HOUSTON AT (12-0) #3 CINCINNATI -10.5, (OPEN -10). loss
one is unblemished, the other has won 11 straight after one bad half in their season opener vs texas tech. the qb stats are virtually identical. uc has the better rb, uh the better wr, the defenses are comparably stingy. but one has the home field advantage, where the bearcats have won 26 straight. as high profile as the sec title game deservedly is, the more historic one might be at nippert stadium. uc is 10-4 su/10-3-1 ats of late vs the cougars. and I think under dana holgorson uh tends to play very undisciplined, while under luke fickell the opposite is true for uc. I think cincy wins, makes history by making the playoffs, chirps about it to the northeast up I-71n for all eternity, but I'll take the half point hook. houston.
ACC CG
12. 10-2) #17 PITT VS 10-2) #18 WAKE FOREST +3, (OPEN +4) IN CHARLOTTE, NC. win/side; loss/total
13. OVER/UNDER 72.5, OPEN 49)
for the first time in the short history of the cfb playoffs there will not be an acc representative. shouldn't take anything away though from what should be an entertaining game. wake's sam hartman and pitt's heisman contender kenny pickett have combined for 84 td passes this year. both have offensive firepower, but the demon deacons have struggled vs the run (5.1 ypc) while the panthers have been much stingier (2.9 ypc). wake is 11-16 ats of last as single digit dogs. the panthers are 14-5 su/ats as chalk of 5/less. I think this is the best bet of the weekend. pittsburgh. over.
BIG10 CG
14. (10-2) #15 IOWA VS (11-1) #2 MICHIGAN -11, (OPEN -10.5) IN INDIANAPOLIS, IN. loss/side; win/total
15. OVER/UNDER 43.5, (OPEN 44)
since the tosu-um game got moved to the series finale in 1935, there's only been 3 times the ugly hats have played a game after the game. '42 vs Iowa-don't know why-, in '86 at hawaii (bo wanted to treat team/fan/supporters to at least 1 warm weather destination), and a repeat trip there in '98. but this year, for the first time ever, the game after the game has a lot more meaning. um holds almost every statistical advantage over iowa (though the hawkeyes are very strong vs the run, and excel at creating turnovers). but... the chalk in the big 10 ccg is just 2-8 ats of late. iowa is 15-8-1 ats as a dog in this series. teams entering a ccg off a win of 14+ are just 19-29 ats lately. the hawkeyes are 5-0 ats getting 7+ when owning a record of .750+. harbaugh having to handle a hangover? hawkeyes keep this interesting.