WEEK 18 “MERRY NEW YEAR!”
“IT’S ‘HAPPY’. IN THIS COUNTRY WE SAY, ‘HAPPY NEW YEAR’.
“OH, HO, HO, THANK YOU FOR CORRECTING MY ENGLISH WHICH STINKS.”STILL IN A HURRY. NOTE THE DATES OF GAMES.
MONDAY – 27 DECEMBERQUICK LANE BOWL, - DETROIT, MI – 11A EST.
loss1. (8-4) NEVADA WOLF PACK VS (7-5) WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS -7, (OPEN +6.5)
well, oops. forgot about the early start on this one so it's a loss. fwiw I think a 2 td swing in the line is too much, even w/nevada's coach leaving and their qb opting out. its 14-3 wmu as the 2nd qtr is starting but I would have taken the points w/the wolfpack.
TUESDAY, 28 DECEMBERBIRMINGHAM BOWL - BIRMINGHAM AL – 12:00 EST
2. (11-2) HOUSTON COUGARS VS (6-6)
AUBURN TIGERS -2.5, (OPEN -3).
loss. some questionable officiating down the stretch.huge ask for war eagle to come back from that devastating iron bowl loss to play a group of 5 foe in the post season. so the emotional edge is w/the cougars imho. but it's just 100 miles to birmingham and I think that evens out. bo nix may be gone, but imho auburn still has an overall talent edge, plus the american conference is 0-13 ats as bowl dogs of 7/less. auburn.
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL – DALLAS, TX – 3:15P EST
3. (9-3)
AIR FORCE FALCONS VS (6-6) LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -1, (OPEN -1).
winI'm a fan of l'ville qb malik cunningham, but a bigger fan of an air force run game averaging 341/game. since uk ran for 362 in the cardinals finale (52-21 loss) and that wasn't even vs the option attack the falcons employ, I'm asking how da 'ville is da chalk here. there are a ton of trends here favoring the dog also; acc bowl faves are 0-8 ats off a su loss, the cards are 0-6 ats in bowls off a 12+ loss, the fly boys are 9-3 ats in bowls, 11-2 off back/back wins, 4-1 ats as dogs of 6/less, and .666+ service academy bowl teams are 18-2 ats since 1980 vs opponents not off a 10+ win. but everybody knows that... air force.
LIBERTY BOWL – MEMPHIS, TN – 6:45P
4.
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS VS(6-6) TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS +9.5, (OPEN +8.5).
big and ugly loss. lolI'm torn here. the trends favor tech; msu is 1-4 ats as bowl chalk, and teams off a su favorite loss are just 2-9 ats as bowl favorites, the big 12 is a surprising 8-3 ats in its last 11 bowl games vs the sec. but... tech pass defense is god-awful (#117 in the country, and the worst of any '21 bowl team), not a good sign vs the bulldog air game. and for anyone who's forgotten, rick leach got canned by tech a decade ago for reportedly locking craig james' son in a closet after he had a concussion. leach also lost a lawsuit he filed to get the remainder of his salary. I'm guessing he hasn't forgotten. mississippi state.
HOLIDAY BOWL – SAN DIEGO CA – 8:00P EST
5. (8-4)
UCLA BRUINS VS (9-3) NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK -1, (OPEN -2.5).
ppdnice matchup of a solid wolfpack d vs the bruins' effective offense. the holiday bowl has been a great one for underdogs (7-1 ats the last 8 games), but bowl dogs of 4/less who enter off 3 straight su/ats wins are just 1-7 ats. and pac-12 teams are an astounding 1-22 ats in bowls vs opponents off a win. and nc state qb devin leary may be the best cfb qb you've never heard of... he had 35 td passes this year w/just 5 picks. ucla's thompson-robinson is good w/his arm and his legs. this should be a fun one as a lot of holiday bowls seem to be. slightest of leans to u... c.... l.... a... u-c-l-a fight-fight fight.
GUARANTEED RATE BOWL – PHOENIX, AZ – 10:15 EST
6. (6-6)
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS VS (8-4) MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS -4.5, (OPEN -6.5).
loss, though I had the gophers win pick right. hathe gophers going 8-4 after losing so many quality rb's this season is a tribute to p.j. fleck imho. both these teams are solid on defense. wvu is just 1-10 ats lately in the post season, but fleck in his 9 years as head coach has 10 losses in games in which his team was favored. minnesota wins, but I think west virginia keeps it close.
WEDNESDAY, 29 DECEMBERPINSTRIPE BOWL – NEW YORK CITY – 2:15P EST
7. (6-6)
MARYLAND TERRAPINS VS (6-6) VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +3.5, (OPEN -3).
winold acc rivals meet in the big apple, w/the gobblers missing their head coach, justin fuente, who was fired this year. both have lost their last 3 bowl games. the acc is 1-7 ats of late vs big 10 foes in bowl games, and va tech will be missing 7 starters (6 of them were all-acc this year or in '20) who either opted-out or entered the transfer portal, including starting qb braxton burmeister. that gives terp qb taulia tagovailoa even more of an edge. maryland, my maryland.
CHEEZ-IT BOWL - - 5:45P EST
8. (9-3)
CLEMSON TIGERS VS (7-5) IOWA STATE CYCLONES +1, (OPEN +1).
wintigers are 10-3 ats of late in bowl games, and their defense was awesome in '21 (allowed just 309 yds/game, 277/game in the last 4, and only 15 pts/game), but only 1 of their 9 wins was vs a .500+ opponent. cyclones have the better qb in sr brock purdy, but will be missing a key weapon in rb breece hall (1472 yds, 20 td's) who opted out. isu was also stout on defense (310 yds/game allowed) vs a slightly tougher schedule (#45 vs #65). I like the total (under 44) a lot more than the side, but bowlers who've won 3+ su by 21+ each are 7-1 ats the last 8, so I'll give a slight lean to clemson and dabo's 'no one respects us' campaign.
INTERIM COACH BOWL, AKA THE ALAMO BOWL – SAN ANTONIO, TX – 9:15 EST
9. (10-3) OREGON VS (10-2)
OKLAHOMA -4.5, (OPEN -4).
winthe ducks and sooners entered late november w/ cfb playoff aspirations, so ending up in san antonio instead has to be a downer for both squads, especially w/both head coaches leaving for other jobs. both teams were much improved on defense in '21, but oklahoma will be missing 4 key players up front and oregon won't have de kayvon thibodeaux. ou should have a significant crowd advantage in texas, and has the better qb in caleb williams, as well as a ton of trends. sooners are 9-1 su/8-2 ats in bowl games where they have the better record, the big 12 is 5-0 ats of late vs the pac 12 in the post season, bowl dogs of 15/less off a 28+ loss (oregon lost to utah 38-10 in the pac 12 ccg) are 3-9 ats, uo is 1-5 ats in its last 6 bowls, and since 2015, pac 12 bowlers off a su/ats loss are 1-11 su/0-12 ats. jeez. oklahoma.
THURSDAY, 30 DECEMBERDUKE’S MAYO BOWL – CHARLOTTE, NC - 11:30A EST
10. (6-6) NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS VS (6-6)
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS +9, (OPEN +5.5).
wintalk about the same number having different meanings. unc was a pre-season top 10 team, but gave up 32 pts/game in a 6-6 season. the gamecocks had its most wins since '18 in a 6-6 finish behind a solid defense (358 yds/game, 24 pts/game). but their offense (322/game, 21 ppg) was abysmal. the tar heels offense was dynamite behind 1000+ yd rb ty chandler and qb sam howell, who rushed for 800+ and threw for 3119. he was sacked 45 times this year... that's a lot... but south carolina's top d-lineman has opted out. I usually like sec teams getting points in bowl games, but north carolina simply has too many weapons on offense.
MUSIC CITY BOWL – NASHVILLE, TN – 3:00P EST
11. (7-5)
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS VS (8-4) PURDUE BOILERMAKERS +5, (OPEN -2.5).
lossa de facto home game for the vols in nashville, and purdue will be without its 2 best players (wr david bell, de george karliftis) who've opted out. both teams like to go up tempo, and I'm thinking over 63' is pretty attractive. but the boilers won't be able to keep up with all of tennessee's weapons.
PEACH BOWL – ATLANTA, GA - 7:00P
12. (11-2) PITTSBURGH PANTHERS VS (10-2)
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS -2.5, (OPEN +3.5).
winpitt's qb kenny pickett had an all world season (4319 yds, 45 td's). he's not playing. ditto for sparty rb kenneth walker (1636, 18 td's). who's left? biletnikoff winner jordan addison (93 catches, 1479 yds, 17 td's) for the panthers, up against a msu pass defense who allows 338/game.
pittsburgh. changing to michigan state. I think pitt will miss pickett more than msu will miss walker.
LAS VEGAS BOWL – LAS VEGAS, NV – 10:30P
13. (8-4)
WISCONSIN BADGERS VS (8-4) ARIZONA STATE SUNDEVILS +6, (OPEN +7).
winthe sun devils are missing their top 2 rb's, and the badgers have the #1 run d in cfb (65 yds/game). that's not good. uw's pass d gives up just 176/game. and those numbers came vs the #5 toughest schedule. plus their latest star rb, braelon allen (1106 yds, 7.1/carry, 17 yrs old) is a load. as long as graham mertz (12 picks) doesn't turn it over, this should be on wisconsin.
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