Week 1“A suicide telegram? Who sends a suicide telegram?”
“Can you imagine getting a thing like that? She even had to tip the kid a quarter.”ok. this one I know... a hilarious movie that spawned a hilarious tv series. and it's not the one w/the theme song 'suicide is painless' either.
THURSDAY1.
WEST VIRGINIA@ PITT -7.5
love seeing the 105th edition of the backyard brawl back on the field after an inexcusable 11 year absence. par for the course in cfb these days that the 2 qb's were once teammates... at usc. kedon slovis takes over for kenny pickett at pitt, while the j.t. daniels tour makes it's 3rd stop (los angeles to athens to morgantown). panthers are also minus wr jordan addison (ironically he's now at usc). pitt has a big overall experience edge but wvu is very good on both the o-line and d-line. fans aren't looking past this rivalry game, but having not played for a decade, the panthers might be peeking ahead to next week (tennessee). as far as trends go, the 'eers are 5-1 su/ats as underdogs in the series, pitt is just 2-6 ats as ooc faves of 8/less, and wvu is 6-4 ats the last 3 years getting points on the road. west virginia.
win2. PENN STATE
@
PURDUE +3.5
really like the boilers here. though psu has dominated the series since joining the big 10 (15-2 su, winning the last 9, going 6-3 ats), but I don't like them as road chalk when their running game remains anemic (to be fair they did suffer some o-line injuries in '21). purdue is 8-5 ats as home dogs of late, 6-0 su/5-1 ats in big 10 home openers, 7-3 ats getting 7/less in west lafayette and imho has the better qb (aidan o'connell vs sean clifford). purdue.
lossFRIDAY3.
VIRGINIA TECH@ OLD DOMINION +8
2 ex-psu assistants are head coaches in this one; brent pry begins his tenure for vt, ricky rahne starts yr 2 w/odu, who began '21 1-6 then finished 5-1 and making a bowl. last time a power 5 foe visited norfolk, the hokies entered as -29 chalk and left on the wrong end of a 49-35 upset. in '22 the monarchs return 17 starters. tech has just 4 back on offense and bring in marshall transfer grant wells at qb and 2 more transfer starters at wr. overall underclassmen started 174 games for va tech last year, one of the most in the country. I think that experience will bear fruit here. virginia tech.
loss4. ILLINOIS
@
INDIANA -3
in '21, indiana made the pre-season coaches poll rankings for the 1st time since '68, the year after iu's only ever rose bowl trip; and promptly went 2-10. last week the illini started slow but finished strong in blowing out wyoming. both teams are very young. last year illinois went 7-2 ats vs big 10 opponents, but in all the dog covers they were getting 7+. the hoosiers are 11-2 as home chalk under tom allen, and (our 1st cfb nerd stat of the season) the last 14 times these 2 have played, the team who won su also covered. make it 15. indiana.
push. though I won some $$ here when the line dropped to -15. TEMPLE
@
DUKE -7
classic matchup between coach k and john cheney... uh... oops. forget that. both teams have new coaches after both teams went 3-9 last season. the owls lost their last 7 games by an average of 34 ppg. they do have 14 returning starters (is that good in this scenario?) and are actually 18-3 ats in road openers. the blue devils haven't won a lot of acc games lately but have been pretty good vs ooc foes (29-9 su/ats since '13). duke.
winSATURDAY6. GEORGIA
VS
OREGON +17.5
AT ATLANTA
the bad news is the defending national champs has to replace their entire d-line (nfl draft), + 2 5-star o-linemen (transfer portal). the good news? last year's #2 overall defense is still deep w/young talent who got plenty of playing time in '21 for former defensive coordinator dan lanning, who this weekend will be on the other sideline as uo's new head coach. he'll have ex-auburn qb bo nix leading the offense, and an o-line that was really impressive to me when they ran up and down on the bucks. obviously uga will be a bigger challenge to run on. the ducks are a solid 6-0 ats as 10+ ooc dogs, while the dawgs are 8-2 ats in their last 10 ooc games. fwiw, defending national champs are 20-12 ats in season openers at home/neutral fields. w/lanning plus nix plus 15 returning starters, a shaky nod to oregon getting a back door cover.
loss. turned out oregon was the one who was shaky7. UTAH
@
FLORIDA +2.5
this line is both stupid and a gift. I know the utes are a trendy pick this year after 'almost' beating a tosu defense that was both bad and missing key starters to boot. but now they're flying across the country into early sept florida humidity. the gators have been underdogs at the swamp just 3 times since '18, and they've covered all 3. utah is a sweet 7-1-1 ats in road openers since '13, but I think uf qb anthony richardson is a nice fit for new head coach billy napier. plus here's a cool trend I found this week; teams who were embarrassed in a bowl the previous season (losing su as chalk of -7+) who are .500+ in their last 28 home games and are either a dog or -10/less are 16-2 ats. florida.
win8.
BOISE STATE @
OREGON STATE -2.5
wow. the beavers favored over the broncos. why? I saw 1 pro scouting service report that says oregon state's o-line is the 10th best unit in the country. wow again. both teams have returning qb's and lots of experience (osu-15 returning starters, bsu-17). the difference? the beavers are 0-5 ats in season openers, 1-4 su/ats as faves of 7/less, while boise is 5-1 su/6-0 ats in road openers and 9-3 su/10-2 ats in games where they are +3/less. boise state.
loss.9.
NOTRE DAME @ OHIO STATE -17
I mentioned in a team board post that the bucks have struggled in recent high profile ooc home games (oregon, oklahoma, va tech, all losses). tosu has also twice before opened the season vs top 5 foes; 1978 at home vs penn state (19-0 loss in art schlichter's 1st game as a freshman) and 1986 at the meadowlands vs alabama (16-10 tide win). folks, that's not a good track record. most media and fans are mesmerized by offense, and obviously stroud, henderson, smith-njigba and his wr unit are hypnotizing talents. the question is whether the buckeye d front 7 can take on a high quality irish o-line. if they can't, that would take a ton of pressure off new qb tyler buchner. nd's record vs top 5 foes the last 25 years is just putrid (3-21 su I believe), but 17 is too big a number. notre dame.
win10.
LOUISVILLE @ SYRACUSE +4.5
last year, I'm pretty sure syracuse did not have a single senior on its football roster, yet a squad that went 1-10 in '20 improved to 5-7. but the cardinals have won/covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, including a 41-3 romp last season. the 'ville also returns 4 o-linemen starters from a team that averaged 210/game rushing a year ago. the orange have no returning starters on it's d-line. louisville.
loss11. NORTH CAROLINA
@
APPALACHIAN STATE -1
in '21 unc was the preseason darling that utah is this year. in '21 the heels went 6-7. carolina buried florida a&m last week, but appy state returns its starting qb and 2 rb's who each rushed for nearly 1000 yds last yr. much taller task for a team w/a frosh qb. asu is 5-0 ats in its last 5 games vs power 5 opponents, while unc is just 3-7-1 ats in road openers. boone will be going bonkers after this one. appalachian state.
loss. unbelievable game12. ARMY
@
COASTAL CAROLINA -2.5
who was the nation's most efficient passing offense? that would be coastal carolina and qb grayson mccall (2873 yds, 27 td's, just 3 picks, 73% completions). he has a new receiving corps but the chanticleers are 13-1 su at home the last 2 seasons. the cadets always scrap, that said army is 1-19 su on the road vs teams who won 7+ games the previous year. coastal Carolina.
win13. CINCINNATI
@
ARKANSAS -6
I think this is the most interesting game on the schedule saturday. uc had an amazing (for that program) 8 players drafted last april from that cfb playoff team, including their entire secondary. can the bearcats reload? the hogs are young too, returning just 11 starters. cincy is 8-4 ats as road dogs lately, 9-0 ats as dogs of +3 to +9. the razorbacks run well behind a very good o-line. a year ago uc was +15 in turnover ratio (2nd best in country) but can a new qb replacing 4 yr starter desmond plus all those new guys on d do that? I'm skeptical. arkansas.
win14. BYU
@
SOUTH FLORIDA +12
is it good to be the most experienced (19 returning starters) team in the country when you've won just 3 games the last 2 years? usf is about to find out, as they also add ex-baylor qb gerry bohanon, who went 10-2 w/the bears. he's 1 of 15 new players from the transfer portal for the bulls. byu has a pretty good qb too in jaren hall, who's hoping to lead the cougars to their 3rd straight 10+ win season. south florida is 4-0 ats when getting 12+, while byu is 31-15 ats when they score 24+, but just 7-11 ats as road chalk. plus, it's another utah team having to handle hot humid conditions. usf.
lossSUNDAY15. LSU
VS
FLORIDA STATE +3
AT SUPERDOME, LA
1st meeting of these 2 since '91 as brian kelly debuts for lsu. looks like arizona st transfer jayden daniels will be the tiger qb after myles brennan ended his career. fsu has a game under its belt and more starters returning (16 vs 11) but is 3-10-1 ats of late vs ooc foes, and has lost its last 5 games to power 5 ooc opponents by an average 17 ppg. that said, louisville transfer jordan travis, the noles' new qb, can pass and run effectively. and here's an interesting stat; as a head coach, kelly is 5-14-1 ats in the first 3 weeks of a season vs opponents who won 5/less games the previous year, 0-5 ats when not favored by more than 7 pts. I'll make it a clean sweep for the sunshine state this weekend. florida state.
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Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
