Week 2“YOU COULD JOIN A MONASTERY.”
“DID YOU EVER SEE A MONK GET WILDLY F*-D BY SOME TEENAGE GIRLS?”
“NEVER.”
“SO MUCH FOR THE MONASTERY.”you know, the weekly picks w/o a movie quote would be kinda like a foot without a big toe...
ALL GAMES SATURDAY1.
SOUTH CAROLINA (1-0)
AT ARKANSAS (1-0)
-9usc-e's 35-14 win over georgia state was a little misleading, since the gamecocks returned 2 blocked punts for td's and they allowed 200 yds rushing. the hogs 31-24 (-6.5) win over cincy wasn't exactly dominant either, but arkansas' run game did impress (224 yds). these 2 haven't played since '17 so no recent history. one interesting trend; the razorbacks are 1-5 ats as sec home favorites of 13/less. tidbit #2; since 1980, cfb teams in game 2, off a game 1 win where they covered by a point or less, are 0-5 ats when favored by less than 21. south carolina.
2. MISSOURI (1-0)
AT
KANSAS STATE (1-0)
-7.5it's the 98th meeting between these 2 ex-big 12 foes, but the 1st since '11. mizzou looked good vs la tech last week but lost their top rb to injury... not good vs a k-state d that, on paper, looks significantly better. the wildcats now have ex-nebraska qb adrian martinez taking snaps, and he combined w/rb deuce vaughan and others for 297 yds on the ground last week vs south dakota. mizzou is not a good road dog (2-6 ats) while ksu is 7-3 ats vs ooc. here's some trivia I found this week... do you know what program since 2000 has the most kick/punt returns for td's? the guys from the little apple, with 58. alabama is 2nd w/37. kansas state.
3.
ALABAMA (1-0)
AT TEXAS (1-0)
+20.5so are the horns 'back'? or just, at the least, better? and this is the tide's first true ooc road game in over a decade, plus away games were a little tougher for alabama in '21 (loss at a&m, 2 pt wins at uf, auburn). that said, texas is just 2-9 ats in its last 11 games vs sec foes, the longhorns 52-10 win over ul-monroe featured a not-as-impressive 383 yds of total offense. I also think the tide's front 7 are going to make life miserable for the burnt orange. and here's a true cfb nerd stat; since '80 there's been 7 pre-season #1's who've won their opener by 44+ pts. those teams are 7-0 su/ats in game 2, winning by an average of 41. alabama.
4. WASHINGTON STATE (1-0)
AT
WISCONSIN (1-0)
-17.5opposite styles collide at camp randall - wsu's wide open pass attack vs a badger strategy that if rumors are correct features running the ball. uw won 8 of its last 9 a year ago, and started '22 by suffocating illinois state while the cougars struggled to put away idaho. wash st is 1-7 ats of late vs the big 10, and I think braelen allen has another big day. on wisconsin.
5. TENNESSEE (1-0)
AT
PITTSBURGH (1-0)
+6.5I think this is going to be one of the better games of the weekend. a year ago the panthers beat the vols in knoxville 41-34, getting 5 sacks in the process. I don't see pitt having any kind of emotional letdown after beating wvu in the backyard brawl renewal last weekend. tennessee's offense dominated ball st 59-10, but this line has gone from -2 preseason to a td, which is too much, especially for a program that hasn't played a true ooc road game since '14. in games after scoring 50+, rocky top is 1-11 ats. the panthers are 6-2 ats as home dogs. pittsburgh.
6.
IOWA STATEAT IOWA
-3.5matt campbell is one of the best young coaches in the u.s., yet he hasn't been able to climb the hawkeye mountain in a state that's pretty flat. 0-6 su/2-4 ats. last week iowa had to be the first team in modern history to win a game scoring 7 points but not finding the end zone. they had just 166 total yds vs south dakota st, which is just 1/3 of the yards iowa punter tory taylor had (10 kicks, 479 yds). I'd rather play the total under 41 (8 of the last 9 games between these 2 has been below the lined total). isu is one of the younger teams in cfb this season, and in this case I think that's an advantage, feeling that the recent history 'wasn't them'. I'm takin' the hook. iowa state.
7. VIRGINIA
AT
ILLINOIS -4.5a year ago uva pounded the illini 42-14, but this illinois team has improved imho. they outplayed indiana last week (allowed just 32 yds rushing) but lost in the final seconds. rb chase brown has impressed (350 yds rushing in 2 games). the cavs have a completely new offensive line, which could make it a long day for 5th yr qb brennan armstrong. illinois is 0-3 su/ats vs the acc lately, but I think they're the better team across both los's. illinois
8. HOUSTON
AT
TEXAS TECH -3red raiders lost their starting qb, tyler shough, to a collarbone injury in last week's win over murray state. tough break, especially since he missed all of last season after breaking his collarbone in the opener vs texas. that said, the backup qb, donavan smith, started all last season in shough's absence. and houston allowed 372 yds passing to utsa last week in an overtime win. tech is 9-1 su/8-2 ats lately in this series. texas tech.
9.
UAB (1-0)
AT LIBERTY (1-0)
+6.5a year ago liberty spoiled uab's debut in their new stadium. the blazers are 5-1 ats in away games lately and the flames don't have star qb malik willis anymore. plus their new starting qb, charlie brewer, is out after breaking his hand last week. alabama-birmingham.
10. KENTUCKY (1-0)
AT
FLORIDA (1-0)
-5looking forward to this one too. uf qb anthony richardson played well in a comeback win over utah, sparking sportswriters to move the gators from naia status to #12 (is that right mike? lol). here's the thing though; uk has as many 10+ win seasons the last 4 years as florida does... 2. the cats beat the gators last year, they've covered 5 straight in the series, and the boys of florida are just 3-7 ats in sec revenge games lately. which is exactly why I think uf isn't looking past uk. florida
11.
USC (1-0)
AT STANFORD (1-0)
+8revenge spot for the trojans too, who got stunned by the trees 42-28 in the coliseum in '21, which got head coach clay helton canned. stanford has actually won half of the last 10 games in the series, but I'm not sure if their atrocious defense has gotten any better. the cardinal is just 3-6 ats lately getting points in palo alto, while the men of troy are 10-4 ats as road chalk, 5-0 ats when its just single digits. usc.
12.
ARIZONA STATE (1-0)
AT OKLAHOMA STATE (1-0)
-11ex-gator qb emory jones is now leading the sun devils. cowboys put up 58 pts vs central michigan last week but allowed 44 and were actually outgained by the chippewas. plus asu is 7-2 ats getting points away from tempe. arizona state.
13. BAYLOR (1-0)
AT
BYU (1-0)
-3I mentioned last week how tough byu's schedule will be this year. but the cougars looked good putting up 575 yds of offense in blowing out south florida. they also will be playing w/revenge, after baylor won 38-24 a year ago. plus byu is one of the most experienced teams in cfb this season, while baylor is replacing a ton of talent. the mormons are 8-3 ats in home openers when favored by 2+, while bu is 2-10 ats in their first road game, 0-6 ats when not favored by 14+. brigham young.
14.
OREGON STATE (1-0)
AT FRESNO STATE (1-0)
+1lost $$ going against oregon state last week, who dominated boise state. fsu is 13-5-1 ats in ooc games, while osu is just 1-5 ats in their last 6 road games. the bulldogs do have usc on the horizon, though, and w/their highly rated offensive line, I'm pounding the beavers here.
. oregon state.
15. MISSISSIPPI STATE (1-0)
AT
ARIZONA (1-0)
+10.5won some shackles on the cowbells last week, who beat up memphis last week. but this is a rare trip west for msu... just their 4th game ever vs a pac 12 foe. plus the bulldogs have a revenge matchup vs lsu next week, and may be looking ahead. the 'cats shocked san diego st 38-20 last week behind ex-washington st qb. bulldogs have the better, deeper talent, especially on defense, but they are 2-6 ats the week prior to taking on lsu. I'm bearing down on a backdoor cover. arizona.
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. oregon state.
